Neal has done a remarkable job breaking down Mo's formula for success. It seems a bit churlish of me to say "I told you so", especially as it wasn't advice I ever followed - because I'm an idiot - but I told you so.
One friend of the blog (FOB) who has been killing it for the last month or so is Mohamed Kileeny. Mohamed participated in our Liverpool Round-table before the season started and now finds himself in the top 50 teams overall. Mohamed rotates the majority of his team week-to-week, looking for the best match-ups rather than holding players long-term. And he has an uncanny knack for finding the week's random goal-scorer be they MGP, Huth, Crouch or Evra -- just to name the ones from the past month!Emphasis added.
There has been robust debate in the past about holding players at discounts versus selling for the best current match-up. Has that argument been put to rest? And regardless, will we ever learn?
I think in the end, it comes down to discount with a lower case d or discount with AN UPPER CASE D. bale at 2, rvp at 9, arsh in hist first season at 6, adam at 5...I think you are justified in holding on to those players even when you know they won't be playing for one week. But other players that you hold for a discount of, say, 2-4 mill that have rotten match-ups - or players at huge but aberrant discounts (i.e. huge run ups in value after a good week for streaky, flash-in-the-pan players like defoe or berbatov) - or probably not worth the trouble.
ReplyDeleteI believe one needs a statistics over at least 5 seasons to prove anything. I find it hard to believe that in the 09-10 season anyone holding bale at 2.8x dropped him during the last 6 weeks...
ReplyDeleteAnd the question remains: Will we ever learn?
ReplyDelete"an uncanny knack for finding the week's random goal-scorer"
ReplyDeleteselection bias
"an uncanny knack for finding the week's random goal-scorer"
ReplyDeleteselection bias
This is my problem with this approach as a strategy. It's obviously superior right now, but it's boring and arbitrary. Doesn't it then come down to whoever has the best hunches? I guess some of those hunches are based in data and experience, but I'm not so sure how much is skill and how much is luck, at least at the very top. Skill gets you in contention, but luck probably wins it.
Which is why I'd like to see some kind of tweaking to the game to make roster management matter again. My preference for that may just be an artifact of beginning to play at a time when you had one indispensable (and very expensive) player who you had to hold and construct a roster around (TH14 and then C.Ron) but I enjoyed the game much more when finding bargains ahead of the curve and holding players at discount mattered. Now without the C.Ron budget/roster constraint, you're just playing hunches every week, and picking from among the same small pool of players that everyone else who is in the know picks from. It doesn't feel progressive throughout the season in any way. It ends up being more like playing I Know the Score than managing a fantasy team in most other contexts.
Which, if that's what you like, great, but it's definitely why I've been gravitating more towards the official Prem. game the past couple of years, even though it's inferior stats-wise and a lot more impersonal.
@J.Dunn, thanks for the thoughtful comment.
ReplyDeleteI'm curious what you mean when you say that the official game is "a lot more impersonal". What makes that so? Is it the game itself, or the community of humble bloggers around it (or lack thereof) that makes it more or less personal?
And I'd like to open this up to anyone... what makes for a good fantasy experience for you?
Thanks!
J
You know what I'm going to say..a well-run game with loads of stats, and a commmunity to discuss it with and compete against. The yahoo game for me is still the best going, but lacks that personal touch; the yahoo ff groups are OK but limited in how much one can interact. However your blog is a great focal point to enhance yff. And we have a great community over at Starting 11 - knowledgeable and entertaining in equal measure. Wouldn't it be great to combine the three? :)
ReplyDeletecheers
Peter
Is it the game itself, or the community of humble bloggers around it (or lack thereof) that makes it more or less personal?
ReplyDeleteDefinitely the blog community, and to some extent, the scale. The Yahoo! game is small enough that you can build a community around the game as a whole, instead of just your private league, and you guys and the AM have done a great job of that, which is something the Prem. game probably just can't offer in the same way.
It's not like either game does a very good job of providing community space in-game though. The official one at least nods in that direction, but it's really perfunctory and it doesn't seem like anyone uses it in the leagues I play in. There are blogs around the official game too of course, but the scale seems to make it hard to really build community around them.