First XI - What We Learned in Week 5

In theory when you're a journalist you don't root for teams and therefore all you're looking for is an angle, something interesting to write about that will get people to buy your newspaper, click on your link, or head to the Facebook page to make some pithy comments about your genius idiocy.  As much as we'd all like to believe that our journalists stick to this standard (because they tell us over and over that they do), people don't get into sports journalism because it is incredibly lucrative or because it is likely to get you a lot of acclaim with the opposite sex.  No, they get into it because they are huge sports fans who aren't athletic enough to play sports for a living and this is the most feasible way to earn a living being involved with a kids game while still being able to afford to eat.

One of the best things about the blogging revolution is that it has removed the necessity to keep up the illusion that those of us that write about the game don't also have personal feelings about the teams and players.  I try to remain as objective as I can when doing analysis for fantasy purposes because fantasy is a game of numbers and you'll only read what I have to write if my advice is helpful.  Favoring the teams and players I LIKE versus the ones who are likely to be productive will lead to people thinking my analysis sucks and turning to one or more of the other options available for their fantasy league preparation.  That said, in the spaces around the objective fantasy analysis, I am not shy about letting you know who I like and dislike, respect and don't respect, root for and root against, etc.

The reason I give you this preamble is that it has taken me a while to arrive at something I'm happy about writing this week because this weekend was a pretty depressing one for me as a fan.  It was the moment that I finally decided that Arsene Wenger is done.  I'll propose a potential remedy for their current ailments below but I have no sense that it will happen.  To heap general misery on top of the state of Arsenal and its impact on me is the fact that almost all of the meaningful storylines this past weekend were negative.  Here's the run down from I to XI...

Injuries and Suspensions: Week 4

Premier League team news - ESPN Soccernet:

Here is the important news from behind the link along with the fantasy implications that the news implies.

The Week Ahead: Part 1 - The Schedule

With the Manchester teams continuing to dominate the standings - both real and fantasy points - we come upon the first real test of the season.  Chelsea arrives at Old Trafford as the first team not already eliminated from the title race to face either high-flying Manchester side.  I don't really believe that Chelsea are in the race for the championship but with the collection of raw talent on hand and the fact that we're early in the season means we can't entirely write the possibility off (like we can for Arsenal, Spurs, and Liverpool).  Additionally, the memory of the United/Chelsea match at the close of last season should also be fresh in the minds of fantasy managers as there weren't that many points to be had there.

The occasion of Manchester United vs. Chelsea brings us a major dilemma.  Do we assume that United will continue to plow ahead with their domination of their opponents? If we make that assumption then it is a strong move to keep the United players - DDG, Rooney, Chicharito, etc - who you may have at a discount.

The alternative is to assume that Chelsea will make things very difficult for United and regardless of the outcome, make fantasy points hard to come by.  If you make that assumption the question becomes "where do I spend the money I'd been plowing into ManYoo players?"

I wish there were some statistical technique that I had unearthed to give you some hidden insight into the answer to the dilemma posed above.  Sadly, I don't have anything like that handy and if I did, I'd be gambling on my inside information rather than writing about it. What I will push forward are a few thoughts:

1) United are at home and over the past four seasons they are 3-1 against Chelsea at Old Trafford (when Chelsea were arguably more talented) with two clean sheets.  The last 2 matches have been 2-1 affairs with one going in each direction.

2) I like Chelsea's array of talent a lot more now with Mata, Sturridge, and Lukaku attacking, Luiz at the back, and AVB seemingly willing to tell Torres to have a seat until he starts doing his job and scoring goals.  The flipside of that statement is that the roster still feels disjointed with an odd mix of fading talents (JT, Lamps, Drogs, Elk) and rising stars (the group above and maybe Ramires if you're feeling charitable about his potential and athletic skills).  What Chelsea still lack is a core of exceptional players at the peak of their powers to bring together the old and the new.  FloMal, Mikel, Alex, Ivanovic, and Torres (plus Essien) were supposed to be those guys and while only Torres has been abjectly horrible none of the others among the healthy of that group have been exceptional either.  FloMal has had some exceptional stretches and Ivanovic has had some stretches of well-above-average-ness but that's about it.  More than enough on most days but not against the United buzzsaw.

3) By contrast to the picture of Chelsea painted above, United have a great combination of young (DDG, Smalling, Jones, Anderson, Cleverly, Welbeck, the twins, and Chicharito), old (mostly just Giggs and Rio now that GNev and Scholes have retired), and exceptional players in their primes (Rooney, AY, Vidic, Nani, and Evra).  When playing at home, it is going to be hard to overcome that combination.

Overall, my verdict (in the tradition of this year's version of this column) is that I'd favor United's attackers to do very well in this match-up but I'm not as bullish on their defenders and DDG being able to hold a clean sheet.  Verdict: Advantage United Attackers.

With my extended United vs. Chelsea preview out of the way, here are some notes on the other notable match-ups for the coming week:

Season Preview - Wolves

Quick Reminder, Real Life

Despite a load of money spent on transfer window signings, Wolves found themselves in the relegation zone on the last day of the season but miraculously survived - finishing the season with 40 points - only one more than both Birmingham and Blackpool. Despite a -20 goal difference on the season, Wolves had some memorable wins at home (they beat Manchester United and Chelsea) and the form of winger Matt Jarvis and (when fit) striker Steven Fletcher went a long way in cementing the club’s Premier League status for one more year. The likable Mick McCarthy has won more games than he’s lost at Wolves - dating back to his time managing the club in the Championship, and despite the poor results for a majority of the 2010-2011 campaign, always displayed a sense of calm and confidence in his players.

Quick Reminder, Fantasy

Starting at the back, George Elokobi was a decent 5th defender in the Official PL game - coming in at a bargain basement price and chipping in with a few goals and assists but it was further up the field - specifically Jamie O’Hara on loan from Tottenham - who really provided the fantasy spark. When fit, O’Hara was instrumental in creating chances for his Wolves teammates and his delivery from set pieces earned him much praise. His strike against West Brom was a ‘goal of the season’ contender. The well-known forwards Kevin Doyle and Steven Fletcher combined to score 15 league goals but lacked the season-long consistency necessary for prolonged fantasy investment.

Summer Changes

Midfield role for Wolves’ Kevin Foley

Midfield role for Wolves’ Kevin Foley — Express & Star

Kevin Foley has been earmarked for more central midfield duties by Wolves boss Mick McCarthy.

The Republic of Ireland international was voted fans’ Player of the Year in 2008-09 playing right-back.

But two of his three appearances have been in the central role after playing the second half of last season at wide right.

And McCarthy believes the 25-year-old has the football brain and mobility to play more in a midfield role.

“I’ve played Kevin in midfield because I know he can play there,” said the boss.

“Kev’s been versatile – right-back and right wing – and he’s very comfortable with the ball. We’ll have to play three in the middle from time to time and I like him in there because he’s comfortable.

“He gives us another option in there.”

Y! again has Foley listed as a defender, but if he's going to continue in midfield he might be a bargain signing. Of course in his run at right mid last year he didn't do too much, but still. Hard to resist the defender playing in midfield.  Maybe he's this year's Mancienne, if not this year's Kevin Foley.

October return for Hunt

October return for Hunt

Wolves manager Mick McCarthy has confirmed that new signing Stephen Hunt will be out until October due to a foot injury.

McCarthy signed the Republic of Irelandinternational for £3million from relegated Hull City earlier in the summer.

The 28-year-old ironically suffered his injury playing for the Tigers in a Premier League game against Wolves back in February.

So Matt Jarvis should still be the pick of the litter (do wolves have litters?)... for the time being.

Wolves complete deal for Stephen Hunt

Wolves complete deal for Hull forward Stephen Hunt

Wolves have announced the signing of forward Stephen Hunt from Hull for an undisclosed fee.

Stephen Hunt has long been linked with a move to Wolves
Hull rejected a £5 million bid from Wolves in January, but Hunt later revealed he struck an agreement with chairman Adam Pearson that he would be allowed to leave if the club failed to stay in the Premier League...

He is Wolves' fifth signing of the summer, following Steven Mouyokolo, Jelle Van Damme, Steven Fletcher and Adlene Guedioura in sealing moves to the Molineux club as McCarthy bids to build on 15th place they achieved on their return to the top flight.

Mick's been busy, and it seems like he's bringing real quality to his side. Mid-table quality, but quality all the same.

Fletcher set for Wolves move

Fletcher set for Wolves move

At least Wolves will have cover for Doyle. This doesn't bring them anything they don't have on the pitch already though. Maybe next season Milijas gets going and brings them the creativity they lacked in the first half of the season, and didn't even try for in the latter half. 7.5 million pounds though? It seems to me that they're paying almost as much for Doyle's understudy as they did for Doyle himself.

Early Doors

Benitez insists he will slowly nurse the club’s leading scorer this season back into action as he does not want him to suffer yet another injury setback.

The Reds boss revealed Torres will again be a substitute in the Europa League second-leg clash in Romania against Unirea Urziceni on Thursday night, but it is hoped he will be able to select him from the start in Sunday’s home Premier League game with Blackburn.

Benitez said: “We decided to put him in the squad (against City) because he was training well last Friday. Now he can carry on and progress. He will be ready soon.

“We have to be careful because it has been a long time. Now it is a question of one step at a time.”

He added: “You cannot push him too hard because you could lose the player and it is not necessary.

“We will see how he progresses and we will decide each day.”

As I wrote on Monday, I think Torres is one for next week, but it will be worth following the news to see if there is any stronger indication that he'll get a run out from the start against Rovers.

Meanwhile, in the West Midlands...

Wolves boss Mick McCarthy is set to name unchanged line-up for a third successive game for Saturday’s latest survival collision at Bolton.

The Molineux chief, who has earned a reputation for regularly changing his team this season in a bid to find a winning formula, has Michael Mancienne available again after ineligibility prevented him facing his parent club Chelsea last weekend.

But he was so impressed with the players’ application in Saturday’s 2-0 defeat that he hinted at retaining faith with the same XI at the Reebok that fell harshly to the Premier League leaders 2-0 and beat Tottenham 1-0...

And he revealed his satisfaction at the way Kevin Foley – described by critics as a square peg in a round hole – has adapted to his new role at wide right in the absence of the injured Michael Kightly, Dave Edwards and Andy Keogh...

“People tell me Kevin Foley is a full-back but he’s played really well for us in that position.

“He keeps the ball and but for a world class save he would have scored the equaliser against Chelsea.

“He had a couple of chances at Birmingham as well.

“It’s definitely suiting us to play the way we’re playing.

The Kevins, Doyle and Foley, are definitely on my radar for this weekend's match.

And in news that will interest Gareth Bale owners, especially those of you who have been enjoying his services at 2...

Assou-Ekotto could be available for this weekend's clash with Everton, but he concedes that he cannot expect to walk back into the team.