Week 7 Team

After lots of thought, but surely little understanding, here's my week 7 team.



 Good night, and good luck.

Week 7 Barn Door Team

I have three different options for you to choose from this week.  Please vote in the comments below.

First there is the real Barn Door team, the one I came out of the weekend with:

I was nervous about going all in on the North London derby, but surely there are goals there.

 Then came the news about Tevez and Dzeko, and all of a sudden Balotelli (God help us all) looks like a great option, at Rovers.  So out goes RvP, who to be fair was flattered by a 10-man Bolton side, and we shake up the team with the extra money.  

10 Things We Learned: Week 3

What an incredible weekend. It started with a forward who scored one goal all of last season scoring a brace and ended with three of the more remarkable fantasy performances we are likely to see all season - one from a forward who himself only scored twice in the league last season (admittedly in limited opportunity over only 15 matches).

[NOTE: Yup, I'm still tweaking the format for this Monday/Matchweek Wrap-up column. If you have any suggestions, I'm happy to hear them. The content is the content but I'm trying to come up with a nice wrapper/theme to pull it all together]

Community Shield "Live" Blog

As I did with the Valerenga/Liverpool pre-season match, I'm going to "live" blog the Community Shield.  Even though it happened this morning, I'm just now getting a chance to watch.  But don't worry, I've been under the Cone of Silence all day so my reactions will be genuine.

And my first reaction is "WTF!?!?!?!" Kolarov starts over Clichy?  I thought the one nailed on spot was going to be Clichy as the starting left-back for Citeh.  If there's going to be rotation there... and it seems like there is now... I'm not so sure I want to gamble on either player starting against Swansea next week.  Looks like I'm going to spend a similar amount of money on the real sure thing - Kompany.

So neither defence is as expected with Smalling lining up at right back. Maybe that's temporary as Rafael was injured but does make the bench.  However, we saw Phil Jones line-up wide right last week and now Smalling.  Is Sir Alex just exploring all his options or does he have Smalling on a short-list for the position?

Further forward, Welbeck lines up with Rooney while Berbatov continues to be a £30 million squad player. It will be interesting to see how Welbeck and Rooney dove-tail.  Is the "Rooney needs to be a lead striker" argument over and replaced with the recently popular "he's more natural and effective playing behind the striker(s)"?

On to kickoff...

Season Preview - Manchester United

Quick Reminder, Real Life

A record breaking 19th league title and a Champions League Final appearance. Sort of speaks for itself, doesn’t it? These are even more impressive accomplishments since a lot of neutral observers would agree that it happened in something of a transition year for United. Their central midfield lacked an above-average talent (which Barca made abundantly clear in the Champions League final) and they featured a lot of very young (Rafael, Fabio, Smalling, and Chicharito) and very old players (Scholes, Giggs, and EvdS) all over the pitch in regular roles. The breakout star of the season and likely the difference between winning the title and not, was Mexican forward Javier Hernandez. Chicharito’s gift for efficient scoring saw him displace Dimitar Berbatov, the league’s joint top-scorer, as a starter. The only downside other than the loss in the final to Barca was a frustrating and non-Ferguson-like tendency to lose leads late on the road. “Fergie Time” just wasn’t quite the same when the Red Devils left Old Trafford last season. Still, with the title in the bag, that’s really just nitpicking isn’t it?

Quick Reminder, Fantasy

Nani was a fantasy stud for the first half of the season but ended it as only a part-time starter. Berbatov had matches where he was incredible followed by long barren stretches that caused fantasy managers to pull out the hair Rooney ultimately had transplanted in. Vidic was excellent but expensive. Park was incredibly effective for the price in limited duty. After a disasterous first half of the season, Rooney came back and had at least a pretty good second half (although still not up to his standards or price). Chris Smalling had a very nice run of production for a cheap price as injuries sidelined Ferdinand.

Summer Changes

Weekend Notes

Pre-season Grinds On

Its been a nice relaxing weekend around the Thurman Ranch after a lot of work and fun travel over the last month or two.  We're making great progress on the team-by-team season previews that have become a staple of the blog over the years.  It is my hope that we'll start posting them next week so that you'll have plenty of time to use that information for your fantasy teams.  We'd post them sooner but it feels like there are still a lot of pretty significant moves still to be made and we'd prefer not to post and then have to entirely re-do say Everton or Bolton or Arsenal's preview.  Fear not, they'll arrive soon enough along with a variety of other information to get you ready for the season to come. 

Before we get to the reason for the post, I'll also take a moment to bask in the excitement of the incredible weekend in Philadelphia sports.  The Phillies (baseball for those who aren't into the American sports) started the weekend with the best record in baseball.  The Eagles (American football) one-upped the Phillies by acquiring a ton of defensive talent as the season gets ready to start which firmly entrenches them as one of the top contenders for the Super Bowl title.  The Phillies, not to be outdone, also made a strong acquisition to fill one of the few gaps in their line-up as they prepare for their playoffs in October.  Oh, and on the field the Phillies have won both of their games thus far this weekend.  Good weekend to be a Philly sports fan.  

So, aside from writing and basking in the glow of being a Philly sports fan in 2011, I also got to watch a decent amount of pre-season action.  For those who had better things to do with their time, here are some observations from the Emirates Cup and a few Manchester United pre-season friendlies. 

Emirates Cup

Hernandez Doubt for Season Start

Manchester United's Javier "Chicharito" Hernandez spent Tuesday night in the hospital after suffering a "mild concussion" in training. Now, according to Sir Alex Ferguson, he'll miss matches over the next few weeks.

Although medical staff found no major damage, Ferguson has confirmed the Mexico forward will not play for a couple of weeks, even though he will continue to train and remain on tour.

"He got concussion in training and we dealt with that," said Ferguson. "We took him to hospital, he had a scan, it was all clear.

"He is back in the hotel. He is in his room and will be out for a couple of weeks.

I would expect that he's out of any pre-season match, including next week's Charity Community Shield derby. But for Premier League fantasy, this must make him doubtful for the August 14 opener at West Brom. At best he'll be a "game-time decision", be "given every opportunity to prove his fitness", or, my favorite, "face a late fitness test".

While I would expect to see Berbatov step right into the starting role, it would be interesting to see Rooney as a lone forward with blog-favorite Ashley Young (BFAY) playing off him. Young played that role to some mixed success at Villa. That would allow both Nani and Valencia to get on the field in support of the attack. But more importantly, again for fantasy Premier League managers, it would mean that BFAY was +10 for the opening week - a midfielder playing forward and taking set-pieces. I couldn't be more excited!

What Makes a Good Squad Player

I had an interesting interaction with a reporter/writer that I was not familiar with until yesterday. His name is Tom Williams and he can be found on Twitter at @Tomwfootball. His original tweeted premise, on the occasion of Patrick Vieira's retirement as an active player, was spot on.

Measure of Vieira's impact: players like Abou Diaby mistakenly typecast as defensive midfielders just because they have a similar physique.less than a minute ago via web Favorite Retweet ReplyTom Williams
tomwfootball

There is an entire generation of lanky midfielders - mostly French or French-speaking West African - who have been labeled "next Vieira" while their managers, journalists and supporters attempt to push them into the "Vieira role", defined as box-to-box action with a heavy emphasis on the holding role. Not as holding-only as Makelele, but certainly far better and more focused on that role than someone like Pirlo or Alonso who is more deep-lying distributor.

As Mr. Williams indicates in his Tweet, it is a huge tribute to Vieira that the desire to find the next one of him caused managers to stop looking at a player's actual qualities and just assume that he should fit a certain mold. My response, which was perhaps a bit extreme but still valid at the core was that not only some players - most notably Yaya Toure - have been mis-categorized as holding midfielders by managers, the media, and supporters. There are also players, like Abou Diaby, who have been miscast as being better than they actually are because of the hope that they will eventually fulfill that "Next Vieira" promise.

@tomwfootball mistakenly typecast as DMs in the case of say Yaya Toure, miscast as top flight footballers period in the case of Diabyless than a minute ago via yoono Favorite Retweet ReplyNeal Thurman
nealjthurman

Mr. Williams didn't think very highly of my opinion of Diaby as being "miscast as a top flight player" which got me to thinking about what makes a good squad player.  I think we'd all agree (even Mr. Williams) that Diaby hasn't shown enough that even a bottom half team would buy him with the intention of him being a regular starter.  Between injury and lack of consistent production (either attacking or defending) he just isn't as good as midfielders currently starting in the Prem.  Higher up the table he wouldn't be rated as of high enough quality.  Farther down the table, his abilities might shine a bit more in comparison to current starters but his inability to stay on the field for more than a few matches at a time would make him a poor choice.

In an effort to re-examine my reply to Mr. Williams' Tweet, I started thinking about what makes a good squad player in an effort to determine whether I over-reacted in saying that Diaby has been miscast as a top flight player (at least in England).  Here's what I came up with as far as constructing reserves:

Ashley Young to Manchester United Completed

Manchester United complete Ashley Young signing - ESPN Soccernet

So in a summer where teams seem to be focusing their attention (and money) on redundant players, we give you Ashley Young to Manchester United. 

For those who have been reading the blog for a while, you know we've had a long-standing love affair with him back to his days at Watford when he was a Yahoo! fantasy star for very little money.  We have enjoyed his time at Villa slightly less as his price has risen (along with his ego by all reports).  The question we're faced with is, "Why did United want him?"

It seems to me that AY and Nani are almost identical players.  Both play a hybrid left midfield/striker role.  Both are fairly fleet of foot.  Both serve the ball in well from both the run of play and set pieces.  Both score more than their fair share of goals from decent distance.  Neither is particularly inclined to track back and play defense.  Neither is known to be particularly "coach-able" although both have improved steadily despite this criticism being leveled at them.  Both are still on the upsides of their career - Nani is 24 and Young is 25.

So, why make the move for Young if you already have Nani? Here are a couple of thoughts:

• The Rules - If they're essentially the same player, why not go with the one that helps satisfy the "homegrown" rule.
• Money - They may have an offer on the table for Nani from a newly wealthy team on the continent of the PSG variety that will allow them to make a net profit on buying AY and selling Nani, who again, are essentially the same player.
• Looking Ahead - It may be clear to United that Nani's intention is to leave at some point in the future so rather than get themselves into a CRon/Cesc-type situation, they decided to make the switch for a very similar player who really wants to be at United while Nani still has lots of value and other teams don't have as much leverage.
• The Unknown - Despite his recent success, SAF has never really seemed sold on Nani to the extent of leaving him on the bench until the 70th minute in United's biggest match of the season.  Maybe SAF has decided to cut bait before the news gets out that he doesn't value Nani much and that there's something that has happened quietly behind the scenes that has paved the way for his exit from Old Trafford.
• Depth - Perhaps last season's injury to Antonio Valencia has convinced SAF that he really needs three starting-caliber wide players for two spots and he finally has the money to do something about it after a few years of not having the money to spend.

I'm sure the answer is some combination of the answers above.  My only real question is why United have made a luxury purchase - Young - before they tie up the more important purchases that they need more desperately - goalkeeper, attacking midfielder, holding midfielder.

In any event, the downside for us fantasy players is the potential that Nani, Young, and Valencia all stay and we are forced to figure out who will play from week-to-week.  It would effectively crush the value of two very good premium midfielders.  If Young arrives and Nani leaves then Young's value probably stays about the same.  The real winner in all of this from a fantasy (and probably real life) standpoint is Albrighton who has to be seen as a no-doubt-about it first team choice regardless of what happens with Downing-to-Liverpool.

Ashley Young heads to Manchester United

UPDATE: More thoughts on the Ashley Young to Manchester United deal as it was just finalized (23 June) here.

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Ashley Young heads to Manchester United but Phil Jones deal stalls | Football | The Guardian

Manchester United will officially sign Ashley Young when the Aston Villa forward returns from holiday later this month but their capture of Phil Jones from Blackburn Rovers has been delayed by a dispute over the defender's transfer fee...

Blackburn's owners, Venky's, have since said they do not have to accept a £16m transfer fee and, mindful of interest from Liverpool, Chelsea, Tottenham and Arsenal, believe he is worth more. Venky's have refused to transfer the player's registration and it may fall to lawyers to decide whether the wording in Jones' contract allows him to be sold at £16m or merely speak to clubs who meet that price. United are said to have no concerns that Jones' transfer will be completed and for £16m.

Young is believed to have agreed personal terms on an initial £16m move to Old Trafford from Villa Park but the transfer will not be formally announced until he has completed a medical.

We've been fans of Ashley Young since the beginning and coined "Blog Favorite" in his honor. Now he's moving on to the big, big time and we can't wait to see what it means for his career and for his fantasy production.

Of course, there are a lot of unanswered questions. Does this herald Nani's departure? Certainly we would expect Young to come in off the left and Valencia the right, with Rooney and Chicharito through the middle....

Heh! Maybe the questions have very clear answers. ;-)

The Jones situation will be interesting to monitor. Surely the likes of Liverpool (and others) will try to out-bid United and get Venky's blessing on a move. I would guess that Jones will have his mind set on United and will fight to end up there. But it will certainly give us something to write about for a while.

Season Preview: Aston Villa

As I did for the Arsenal preview, I'm going to make some assumptions related to ongoing transfer speculation.  I'm going to assume that like Everton did last season with Lescott, Villa will capitulate to the huge offer from Man City on Milner and end up with Ireland and a bunch of cash.  Since I see Ireland plus cash for Milner as being great business for Villa - especially if they put that cash to good use - I don't think this will change the Villa outlook too dramatically if it turns out I'm wrong and they keep Milner.  I'm also assuming that Villa will keep Ashley Young away from the grasp of Spurs, et al.

Overall Outlook - It must be frustrating being a Villa supporter or even in management.  They have done some excellent business on a relatively tight budget over the last few years but seem to be moving backward more than forward.  The first team is as good as nearly any around and for the first time in ages there is actually some quality depth, especially at the back.  The problem is that while Villa are improving the old fashioned way, people with much deeper pockets are moving up the pecking order faster and potentially starting to undo some of that great work.  The insertion of City into the Top Four mix, the emergence of Spurs as a Champions League team with the increased revenue that goes with it, and the potential for Liverpool to be rescued from financial ruin by either Chinese or Syrian investors means that clubs like Everton and Villa are realistically going to have a hard time fighting it out for 7th place.  That said, there is every chance that Liverpool won't complete their sale in time to make a difference until January and that Spurs will wilt on the big stage (see Everton when they made the Champions League) and Citeh will continue to search for the right combination of players and manager to exploit their deep pockets and Villa could challenge for 4th.

The Week Ahead

So, apparently my choice to keep Shay Given wasn't the greatest ever. Who saw Darren Fletcher scoring a brace coming ahead of time? If it had been Rooney scoring more than the one, I'd have been completely good with Given's performance but it wasn't to be. A very interesting weekend though. It would appear that ManYoo will have trouble defending their title. Assuming that injuries don't make a major impact on what comes next then Chelsea will be a cut above ManYoo, Arsenal, Liverpool, and Citeh. I can't say I have much of a feel for which of those four clubs will fall out of the Big Four. Here's something to think about before you answer - which teams are the most dependent on one or two players and therefore the most likely to be impacted by injury?

Maybe I'm just being biased and finding scenarios that are advantageous to Arsenal but I have a hard time seeing ManYoo doing anything of note if they lost Rooney for an extended stretch (which wouldn't be a shock given his injury history). Ditto Liverpool if they lost either Nando or Gerrard (and do any of us have a hard time envisioning Nando getting hurt again?). I'm perfectly willing to admit that neither Arsenal nor Citeh have a single player who is as consistently good as Rooney (this year), Gerrard, and Nando have been. What they do have in place of consistent stars are a bunch of well-above-average players. For instance, I could easily see Arsenal doing just fine (again) if Cesc, Arshavin, or RvP were to go down and obviously Citeh were very competitive with K2, Robinho, and Tevez either out or at something less than full strength.

Does this mean ManYoo or Liverpool should be the odds on favorites to miss the Champions League spots? Of course not. What it does mean is that they are likely more vulnerable than you think. They could get lucky and be relatively injury-free for the entire season (it happens). If they're not though, it could become clear very quickly which team won't make the grade.

OK, here is the in no way clunky transition from my opening ramble/rant to the analysis of the week ahead in fantasy footie... after the jump.

Barry to BFAY

Does Barry's imminent departure mean more fantasy return from Blog Favorite Ashley Young this season? Just thinking that the corners and free kicks that Barry would have taken last season will now come to BFAY. And with BFAY listed as a midfielder this season in the Yahoo!UK game instead of at forward... well, he may be real value for money.