Thursday Thoughts



Is that the worst title for a post ever? Alliteration aside (Oops... I did it again), there's just no excuse for it. So let's forgo the usual long preamble (sorry, Neal) and just get into it, shall we?

The "Seven Premier League matches then your price jumps" theory was born out last night as Szczesny's price doubled from 5.67 to 11.28. He scored 12 points on his second consecutive clean sheet win. But that alone wouldn't justify the jump. And while 6% of fantasy managers bought him last week - a huge increase - surely that would have manifested itself after the Wolves match, his sixth in the League.

So now I'm left with a dilemma. Do I hold Szczesny at a now-significant discount, or do I move for another keeper playing this week? My instinct is to sell for Van der Sar, the 2-gamer. Surely this is the cue for Kuszczak's entry music (h/t @sportsguy33) against Wigan. Regardless, Van der Sar is the logical move and thinking two weeks ahead, it makes more sense with Birmingham and Everton having two matches apiece (they play each other, @Everton, on March 9). So for $5 I get one game from Szczesny (home to Sunderland), or for $11 I get 4 matches from Van der Sar/Foster.

On the Birmingham-as-two-gamers note, David Bentley played his seventh and eight League games this week and saw his price go up by 3.5. #QED. Even at 11.72 he'll still be the go-to guy for everyone coming off Giggs after Manchester United's two games.

All these moves... Spending big coin on a keeper. Avoiding the enabler in midfield, as my current four (Nani, Meireles, Giggs, Kuyt) cost double-digits. How is it that I find myself with enough money for all this extravagance? Then it hits me. I'm still holding John Carew at $2.

I hate John Carew. At least for fantasy purposes. He doesn't score enough - one goal in 15 games this season, though most off the bench. He, along with Kevin Davies, is consitently the most fouling (?) player in the League. But at that price...

This week, in his two matches, he had three shots on goal and committed 6 fouls. That was good enough for 8 points - 4 points per match, and double in points/match what I paid for him. He seems to be Stoke's first choice center-forward, with Kenwyne Jones falling to fourth in the pecking order behind Walters and Fuller. And Stoke's upcoming matches include West Brom, at West Ham, and then Newcastle. None of those clubs with your "One-nil to the Arsenal" type defences.

So maybe, just maybe this will all work out.

(Who are we kidding?)

13 comments:

  1. Der Kasier11:28 AM

    How about Vidic as a two-gamer? Potential Clean sheets & goal(s) from corners.

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  2. Vidic is expensive, but might be value. I'm seriously considering 4-3-3 and dropping Giggs for the big Serb.

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  3. Personally, I'm stuck with Evra, Nani and Rooney, though my internal Berb-o-meter is picking up a slight signal. My bigger problem is who to captain...and a possible Chicharito sighting...

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  4. chuckstar12:07 PM

    surprised that so many people want VDS for the double. man u do concede away goals and have tied far more than they have won away. there is always a potential downside with keepers (as opposed to defenders, who are less likely to go into negative pts). if chelsea play well, people picking VDS for the double game week will regret it!

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  5. Chris Jones1:57 PM

    Whisper it....but I'm considering Paul Scholes.

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  6. kellz2:27 PM

    I don't understand everyone jumping on the Giggs band wagon. First off he's a risk to start both matches and if he only starts one it will be at Chelsea. Look at his stats so far, he's performed sub par for most of the games he's played from a fantasy stand point. I think the only players worth considering are Nani Smalling Rooney vds and if your brave Berba and if you ave the cash vidic or Evra.

    There are some juicy single game match ups and Chelsea at home is a much tougher game than people are giving it credit for. Utd have been sub par on the road and now face one very dangerous team and one bogey team. Bottom line I am not convinced. Ill hold Rooney Nani and Smalling only. Maybe just maybe will I go against myself for Giggs but that's it.

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  7. I'm with Kellz on this one - I can't think of a single reason to add Giggs to my line-up that doesn't involve the phrase "if you look at his record over the course of his career..." - also completely agree that Giggs is unlikely-at-best to start both matches.

    @Chris - I feel the same way about Scholes but even more so as he adds the strong possibility of a bad YC or two if he does start both matches (which he won't).

    I think I've found the opening for TWA :-)

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  8. Chris Jones4:28 PM

    Scholes is well overdue one of those 20 yard screamers....and he's got 2 games to do it in. Worth the risk mate.

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  9. You could have VDS this week and Foster the next week and get 4 games out of your Goalkeepers instead of the 1 game Szczesny will provide.

    Having said that, Szczesny has a run of favourable fixtures after next week's big fat zero (Sunderland @home, WBA away, Blackburn @home, Blp away, then a double gameweek), if I had him I'd KEEP HIM.

    I've got a worse dilemma myself, I'm stuck with Reina for 5 and I was seriously thinking he'll be my season keeper after the changes kenny made to the team but I'm now having second thoughts as Liverpool plays ManUtd, ManCity and Arsenal in the next five fixtures!!!

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  10. Anonymous9:55 PM

    @RawadAM: I'm one of those who still keeping Szczesny at 5. No doubt he's in a team challenging for the league title. But I'm towards dropping him, possibly for vds and maybe foster the following DGW. If I need to I can always get Szczesny back with cost similar to vds or foster but I get 4 games instead of 1. Let's just hope his price will fall below 10 then.

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  11. Nearing the final leg of the season and holding keepers who are not playing (Szczesny) is crazy to me. Maximizing points is a must, unless you are so off the lead in your group(s) it doesn't matter to ya.
    I'm going with necessary evil Howard this week to fit Evra, Smalling and Walker on the back line at full price with Kolarov @4. I think it's the first time I use a 4-3-3

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  12. Anonymous3:14 PM

    Meh, I'm stuck with RVP @ 9.08...

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  13. 18.5 points for Howard! Might negate VDS double week if he lets one through against Chelski.

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