The Week Ahead

I have to admit, I'm usually pretty well settled on my squad by the time I write this and only make changes due to injury or the threat of injury. This week? Not so much.  While there is the obvious focus on the teams with two matches (Spurs, Citeh, Stoke, and Fulham) I can't say I'm entirely thrilled with the options available to me the way I was with say Villa a couple of weeks ago. 

Why is that you ask? Some of it has to do with match-ups - Citeh has two home matches against very good competition (Villa and Spurs) who will be fighting them tooth and nail for the 4th Champions League spot.  Spurs has one attractive match-up (Bolton at WHL) and the aforementioned tough road match at Citeh.  Stoke host still-in-the-Europa-League-qualifying-hunt Everton and then travel to who-knows-what-you'll-get-from-them Fulham in mid-week and Fulham have a very attractive schedule (home twice for WHU and Stoke) but very little motivation to focus on the league.  Throw in the fact that nearly all of the Spurs players are expensive (except Modric and unless we think Bassong is going to play twice) and the fact that both Spurs and Citeh were fantasy duds (except Bale, he's always awesome) last weekend and it's really hard to get too excited about your choices, isn't it?

So, with only two fantasy match-weeks remaining in the schedule, I'm going to dispense with the usual format and just launch straight into my strategy for this week. 

• Holding players at a discount - we're past the time when holding a player at a big discount is going to help you for the long term so each week you should be asking yourself, "is this the best way I can spend this money for THIS WEEK?"  Arteta at 13 is a great bargain and he's been on fire but you have to decide if you'd rather have one road game from Arteta or two from someone like Defoe for the same price.
• Going for two-gamers - I may be over-reacting to a very productive week from my Villa contingent a few weeks back but I'd just be beside myself next midweek if I went with attractive-looking one gamers and they did nada for me over the weekend only to have to watch the two-gamers have another shot at it.  I'm trying to avoid crap two-gamers just for the sake of getting two matches (think Zabaleta/Palacios who are YC machines);

With those two things in mind, here are the players I'm thinking about seriously and some comments on each.  I'm listing them in order of my sense of their status as "must have", "nice option", or "only to enable"...

• Bale - two games, he's been awesome, that's about all you need to know - even at full price, you sort of have to have him (right Jer?);
• Tevez - I'm trying to ignore the disaster (and waste of 2 hours) that was the Arsenal/Citeh match last weekend and focus on the fact that Tevez has two important matches and both are at home;
• Modric - he hasn't been great recently but he's one of the few inexpensive ways to get in on the Spurs two-match thing;
• AJ - he has been up and down but he seems to have a permanent place in an attacking/kick-taking role for Citeh with two matches - hard to say no to that;
• Eth - Stoke's two matches aren't the easiest ever but he's a consistent point producer so he's hard to ignore here with two matches;
• Defoe/PVC - Defoe is the one if you have the money as PVC seems to have lost his form a bit (and yes I'm still bitter at the two missed sitters vs. Chelsea that cost Bale assist points);
• Bellamy/K2 - With K2 an injury question mark for one match, this is a tough call, neither covered themselves in glory last weekend - if K2 will definitely play two matches, I'd go with him but if there's a doubt, Bellamy seems a safer way to spend your money;
• Smalling - With Fulham advancing to the Europa Cup Final (Yay!) you have to think they'll play the "B Team" in their two league matches to avoid any injuries and that means Smalling should be cheap and a two-match starter - hard to see you not getting an enabler who might pay off out of that;
• Dikgacoi - Another FUL B Team enabler who is less attractive because of the absence of the potential CS points but could be this week's Kilbane from the Hull 2-game week as he's just above 2.00 in cost - again, hard to see that not working out well assuming you have limited expectations and something productive to do with the money;
• Gomes - Of the two-match keepers, he's the most attractive to me based on the home match to safe Bolton - I'm not thrilled by this option but it isn't bad;
• Fulop - if he starts both and you need some cash elsewhere, Fulop at 1.60 starting at home twice for a team that has been very stingy with the goals at home under Mancini could be the right risk - but it feels dangerous to me;
• Kirkland - if the two-gamers seem too frightening then sadly Kirkland home to Hull might be your best bet;
• Fuller/Lawrence - two rather inexpensive ways to get in on Stoke's two-games, they are both quietly decent fantasy players but definitely "keep your expectations limited" guys - we're definitely way outside of the "must haves" here;
• Kompany - an OK enabler but now we're at the point where you should be thinking about one gamers with better match-ups that could hit big;
• Watson - a one-gamer who is likely good value - he was taking a lot of the kicks last week and the match-up is a good one for him (this is what you'd call an alternative to Kompany at a similar price);
• Fulham Regulars - there is going to be a temptation to take some of the expensive Fulham players like Duff, Dempsey, Schwarzer, etc. - I would advise heavily against it.  I don't think they'll play much if they do at all and even if they do, they won't have all of their weapons around them so they won't live up to their values;
• Chelsea Players - with Liverpool eliminated from Europe and somewhat exhausted and dispirited from their extra time loss (which was particularly demoralizing since they gave it away on terrible defending) you have to think that a motivated-to-win-the-title Chelsea side will run somewhat roughshod - if you're looking for value here, then you might find some in Kalou or (I hate to say it) Joe Cole;
• Arteta - despite what I said above in using him as an example, he's on fire and there is certainly a reasonable school of thought that says "ride the streak" especially if you need to be contrary to the more conventional choices above to rise in your league;

OK - that's about it for this unconventional post.  I hope it was helpful and I'll update these thoughts tomorrow once the Injury and Suspension news is available.

Cheers - Neal