The Week Ahead


By way of apology, here's a photo of Steve Bull scoring against WBA in 1996.

First, to the person who commented on the Transfer Deadline Winners & Losers debating the comment I made about Wolves being a remote footballing outpost.  The comment wasn't made to offend Wolves supporters or belittle the club's history.  I made the comment because in a world where clubs attempt to recruit players who are generally young, single, fairly wealthy, have employment options, and in nearly all cases aren't students of English footballing history it is difficult for clubs that are geographically isolated to recruit.  Selling players on England based on climate can be difficult enough for the famous clubs like ManYoo, Arsenal, Chelsea, and Liverpool.  If you extend the selling to include a smaller city (like Wolverhampton) and/or a less famous club to TODAY'S players (like relegation-threatened Wolves) and you make the problem nearly impossible to overcome.  Clubs like Wolves, Wigan, and Hull face a huge uphill battle to sign decent players. It is no mystery that Wigan have been most successful recruiting players from "below the radar" soccer countries like Honduras.  This isn't my opinion of Wolverhampton, I'd play there in a second if they offered me a contract, these are just the facts of trying to recruit players in the modern day.

With that clarification out of the way, I turn my attention to one of the "fashionable" clubs that didn't do what they needed to at the Transfer Deadline.  My beloved Arsenal.  What is my opinion of them after no transfers and 5 dropped points over their last two matches?  I think the most astute headline I saw was "Beautiful Game 1; Winning the Game 3" (I think it was on Football365).  My interpretation of that headline was that while Wenger probably has more talent on his team and they certainly play a more skilled game, they sacrifice a certain amount of pragmatism in doing so.

I don't have any problem with recruiting youth and developing them - it is a legitimate strategy in a world where finances are tight and ManYoo make £20 to £30 million mistakes on players like Hargreaves and Berbatov (who haven't produced any more for all that money than frequently-maligned Diaby and Denilson who were picked up at a fraction of the ManYoo duo's cost). There are holes in the Arsenal line-up for sure between Clichy having regressed from his early performances as the "next Ashley Cole" to the point where he is a liability, Denilson often looking lost when he shares the field with Cesc, and Almunia not being able to come up with the big saves when the defence lets down.

I appreciate that Denilson and Clichy are both young and might still develop into quality players who can consistently deliver high level performances.  Wenger's loyalty to both is admirable to a point but at what point do you say "we have a chance to win it all THIS YEAR" and by bringing in some alternatives you can accomplish the following:
  • Fill gaps that are causing the team to leak points;
  • Provide some momentum to the team who would feel that management takes this season's title chances seriously; and
  • Motivate the youngsters who lose their places for the long-term and teach them that failure has its consequences rather than that the young guys will always be protected for the long term.
I think the root cause here is Wenger's desire for the beautiful (either on the field or in developing young players) rather than the pragmatic (going and getting an occasional stop-gap player with lower upside either on loan who can do a job RIGHT NOW).  There are lots of very good managers who have a fatal flaw and Wenger's seems to be this willingness to be practical either with his tactics or his player acquisition strategy.  This fatal flaw still has him with the 3rd best team in England and one of the top 7 or 8 in the world but to overcome Chelsea and ManYoo in England and Barca, Real, and Inter in the Champions League he's either going to have to hit huge on another transcendent talent like TH14 or he'll have to get a little more practical from time to time.

OK, enough ranting, on to the Week Ahead...

Schedule
As I'm sure most of you have noticed Bolton, Wigan, Citeh, and Stoke have three matches each.  Hard to argue with that.  Of those with only two matches Birmingham, Blackburn, Fulham, and Sunderland have the best match-ups.  Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, and Everton have particularly difficult match-ups which devalue all but the surest of things on each roster.

Forwards
  • Tevez - my only reservation is that he and K2 don't really seem to work too well together and K2 is back;
  • K2 - back with a bang last weekend and it's hard not to take him with three matches that include Hull and Bolton; 
  • Yayga - Wigan have 3 matches and that's a lot of minutes for him to shoot without conscience; 
  • Fuller & Sidibe - both are cheap and starting for Stoke against some mediocre defences (Citeh, Wigan, and Rovers) if you're looking for enablers with some upside, they might be worthwhile; 
  • Chucho - the price has come down and the match-ups aren't bad; 
  • Drogs - hard to argue now that he's back; and
  • Okaka - I liked what I saw this afternoon and he's cheap;


Midfielders
  • MTay - 3 matches makes him more than worth the investment with Lamps, Gerrard, and Fab4 all with more difficult match-ups;
  • MPet - a strong weekend for M...guys - it might be that MPet only gets two starts from the 3 matches with all the options at Mancini's disposal but with Robinho gone MPet has a good a chance as anyone at getting all three;
  • Eth - he's not an over-the-top fantasy player with huge upside but he'll be a nice play with 3 matches - hard to imagine him not returning solid value for the money; 
  • Lee/Wilshere - with Wilshere and Weiss coming in to help Owen Coyle play a more attractive style of play there is now some question of who will get the PT in midfield at Bolton - if you have some money Lee is probably a better bet, if you need an enabler then Wilshere has some upside;
  • Bowyer - only two matches but his price has receded to a reasonable level and the match-ups are solid; and
  • McCarthy - he got a lot of love on the Live Chat over last weekend and he's another one who has some upside if you need a player with a lower cost who is getting 3 matches (he plays for Wigan if you don't know); 


Defenders
  • Verm - hope you didn't sell him;
  • Bale - we'll see if he continues to play; 
  • Hutton - nice pick-up for Sunderland whose central defenders are back as well;
  • Man Citeh Defenders other than Toure - we'll have to see who is going to play with Bridge potentially back but with three matches, there is going to be a fairly inexpensive way to get in on Citeh;
  • Scharner - always an injury risk but he's had some really nice fantasy weeks in the past; and
  • Carr - two nice match-ups for Brum and a cheap price


Keepers
  • Given - price went up last weekend but worth the money;
  • Hart - if you don't trust Given/Citeh then Hart looks like a solid bet for at least one if not two clean sheets; and
  • Gordon - if you want to bet on Sunderland's upside with an improved defence, then this is the play;  

Good luck with your selections and please join us for Injuries and Suspensions on Friday and the Live Chat on Saturday.

38 comments:

  1. Anonymous9:29 PM

    What do you guys think of Rooney? I am thinking to hold him, specially with the now Man Utd. Double week following the triple week...

    Team as of now (before reading this even!!)

    Given
    Bale, Hutton, Verm
    Aqualini, Eth, MPET, Ohara
    Rooney, Rod, Tevez.

    I have about 2.23 points available and would like to move aquaman.

    Keep up the good work - Tony

    ReplyDelete
  2. Anonymous9:50 PM

    Is Bellamy out of the picture at City with K2 back?

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  3. Anonymous10:47 PM

    You think Fuller gets the starts over the Tunc? I'm not sure who starts, but it seems like Sidibe has been starting no matter what. I like Tuncay better for his creativity, though. I'm not sure who gets the games.

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  4. Anonymous12:53 AM

    Robinson
    Bale/Baird/Hutton
    Maxi/Mtay/NZog/Duff/Eth
    Tevez/HRod

    Any advice?


    Need to chase up my friends on my Local group!
    My Lampard last week was underperformed, while I didn't take Duff because of having Lampard.

    Gambling Fail. =(

    Cheers,
    DarkZero

    ReplyDelete
  5. Hey Neal, you put up a good work here!

    I'm curios about James McCarthy since Victor Moses is there at JJB and Martinez hinted that he will use both of his new signings to give him more fire-power upfront. For me, James McCarthy is pretty much benched for the rest of the season sine he and Victor are both right winger.

    Opinions?

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  6. Source - http://eurosport.yahoo.com/03022010/63/martinez-rests-goal-hopes-new-boys.html

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  7. Kellz2:37 AM

    My opinions on Citeh:
    -Word on Richards return?
    -Certainly with Bridge possibly back, Garrido is the most likely to hit the bench
    -Bellamy will continue to play on the wing counter to either SWP or MPet, I can see a mass rotation for atleast one game, not so sure MPet will see all three.
    -Given looks like a good value.
    -Even with K2 back, he only looked like he wanted to play for about 20min of the match, scoring in that time frame, while Tevez managed no goals but only 1.5pts less than K2.
    -In my opinion Tevez is still a very solid bet, likely to see all three given his match fitness, and the work horse getting great phantom points. Certainly capable of scoring huge.
    -Possibly not bad to have both

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  8. @pDax - McCarthy doesn't exclusively play on the right wing. He can also play on the left wing, or midfield behind the striker, depending on the formation.

    In the few matches he started (only 3), he played on the left wing and central left midfield. With Scotland as the main striker, Rodallega plays left wing and McCarthy slots into central left midfield. With Rodallega as only striker (no Scotland), McCarthy plays left wing.

    N'Zogbia is actually the one playing mostly on the right wing, though he can also play on the left. I would say they are interchangable (ala Man Utd wings).

    I really have no idea what formation Martinez is going to employ, but my feeling is that there will certainly be some form of rotation. Scotland may be the one that is very likely to be benched (0 goals from the striker!), or even Scharner. Either way, McCarthy may be benched occasionally but I don't see him not starting for the rest of the season.

    It is to be seen if he is worth a punt at his lowly 6+ price. ;-)

    "Roberto Martinez believes James McCarthy is ready to play a big part for Wigan in the second-half of the season."
    http://www.skysports.com/story/0,19528,11661_5851818,00.html

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  9. Anonymous4:20 AM

    Whooping 185 points this week in the top 10 for the whole league .. makes a change!

    time my luck took a turn!

    ive dropped shwarzer for sorensen with his triple gamer is that a risk???

    got tevez back for his triple he is bound to do something over the three games

    duff hunt and ohara seem to be worth sticking with..

    and replaced maluda with etherington instead of eagles..

    still have kalinic very cheap but dont have much to play with is he fit after injury?

    glad i held on to drogs i have him at 11m..

    Kendo (earlybathunited)

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  10. Anonymous5:00 AM

    Anyone know why Utaka didn't play last night?

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  11. biggest mistake, dropped O'hara before the match in order to take advanage of the bard door, I had him at 7 and now he's 10!

    ReplyDelete
  12. Kukuski6:42 AM

    Good question on Utaka the attacker...

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  13. Anonymous8:36 AM

    did anyone notice that BFAR is backed? he had an 10.5 week... and his upcoming 2 gamers match-ups are quite tempting.... but, 2 gamers is 2 gamers

    FUNG

    ReplyDelete
  14. Anonymous9:10 AM

    tevez/BFAD or K2/MTaylor?

    tough one

    FUNG

    ReplyDelete
  15. I don't think we'll see much of Johnny Utah with Pompey's African players back. Well, their other African players, anyway.

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  16. RE: O'Hara had him at about 4 for like forever, finally got rid when he didn't get off the bench back at the parent club, he returns triumphantly to Pompey for a double week and nets 20+. Meanwhile, his replacement on my roster, Johnny Utah, gets... just... four... points. Loans + Spurs + Fantasy is the beginning of a cruel, cruel equation...

    ReplyDelete
  17. More on Citeh...

    Lescott may be back along with Bridge. From the all-knowing and all-seeing Yahoo Sports:


    "I spoke to Joleon yesterday and he is very happy," City fitness coach Ivan Carminati told the Manchester Evening News. "His knee is very strong and unless things change he could be involved in the next match - and so could Wayne Bridge."

    He's my favorite option in their entire back line if you have the 9 and change to move.

    And how about the Elephant in the room: What is everyone doing/thinking/considering with Drogba? He has Arsenal (a match-up where he almost always scores whether Chelsea win or not) and @Everton (where Chelsea almost always play horribly but will be only one game removed from a dismal effort @Hull. Meaning Chelsea rarely string bad games together ((then again, early December wasn't exactly a great run for them))). Just thinking aloud.

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  18. Anonymous12:18 PM

    why not Toure ????

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  19. I'm assuming price. Toure is 2 more than any other Citeh defender.

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  20. nick: drogba is a must-own, right? certainly if you kept him through the ANC and still have him at 10, but even if (like me) you grabbed him at 18, he's too good not to have. the guy is just a one-man wrecking crew.

    ReplyDelete
  21. Anonymous1:15 PM

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport2/hi/football/teams/c/chelsea/8499169.stm

    Ah, money talks. Chelsea fans will be delighted after this mid-season's inactivity. Spending spree expected next window then.
    ~Newbie

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  22. @Joon yeah i grabbed him at 18 too. I'm basically looking at all of the expensive three game options and drogba's two and trying to figure out who will probably out score who. Right now he's in but we'll see if i wind up over thinking this haha.

    @Newbie If anyone thought those sanctions were going to stand, I'd like to know who they are. I have some prime real estate for them to look at.

    ReplyDelete
  23. Anonymous1:34 PM

    Wilshere+Tevez or JCole+k2

    Opinions?

    -RockON

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  24. Hi Jeremy, what do you think of Wigan's new signings? Moses and Moreno. Moses apparently is a left winger who can also play upfront and Martinez seems to think highly of Bolivian striker Moreno on loan. After being knocked out by Notts County, Martinez will want to put things right starting from the front. Do you think they will start? Will Rodallega's playing time be affected?

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  25. Daniel2:21 PM

    Sorry and both are available at 6.25, half the price of Rodallega

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  26. Anonymous3:27 PM

    McCarthy (Wig) and Fuller
    or
    Moses and KRich/Whitehead?

    ReplyDelete
  27. Anon... McC(Wig) and Sidibe.

    Moses is very interesting gamble. Martinez will give youth a chance and they do need to do something! It's a gamble to move from HRod to Moses, but if it let's you go from Wilshere to Lee or something like that... well, it's worth considering.

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  28. Chris Jones6:15 PM

    Thanks for the picture of Bully, Neal...no offence taken; I just get so fed up with everyone dismissing us that's all!

    Let's be friends again!

    CJ.

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  29. Anonymous8:03 PM

    Thanks for a great blog Neal, you Jeremy and AM are doing a great service to the community...come to think of it, I look forward to you blogs day to day...kinda distracts me from work lol.

    Now on to business, which team do you guys think I should go for?...

    Option 1:

    Given
    Bale/Cahill/Shawcross
    Etherington/Whitehead/Duff/MTaylor
    Tevez/Kalinic/Tuncay

    As the days passed by I couldn't help myself and made a few changes thanks to yours and our blog buddies' suggestions...

    Option 2:

    Given
    Bale/R.Johnson/Cahill
    Etherington/Whitehead/Lee/N'Zogbia
    Tevez/Kalinic/Rodallega

    I like the second team better, more balanced all around but let me know your opinion please.
    Thanks all,
    (Honduran-Saul)

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  30. Anonymous12:49 AM

    Given
    bale/verma/hutton
    Mpet/Eth/taylor/Mcarthy
    Drogba/Tevez/HRod

    how does it look?

    ReplyDelete
  31. Kukuski6:08 AM

    Jeremy,
    What're you drinking in that pix???
    Best regards always!

    ReplyDelete
  32. Anonymous6:15 AM

    and is faye injured? any news on him? he's questionable, so does it open doors for selecting Wilkinson instead?

    ReplyDelete
  33. Anonymous8:49 AM

    V. Stojkovic
    T. Vermaelen(6.02):)/G. Bale/RJohnson
    L. Modric/D. Duff/M. Petrov/D. Whitehead
    D. Drogba(10.66)/C. Tévez/H. Rodallega

    thinking abt droping Johnson for hutton and upgrading whitehead for eth.or Nzogbia
    Any suggestions ?

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  34. i think the gap between drogba and other strikers is so huge that it dwarfs any consideration from triple-gamers. 2 average games from drogba will get you about 33. (admittedly this isn't the friendliest fixture list, but he does have a history of coming up big against arsenal.) there aren't many triple-game strikers who are averaging 11/game. rodallega is close. so those two are the top guys this week for me. then tevez next, just because it's not clear how valuable he is when he and K2 are playing together.

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  35. @Joon Yeah I agree. He stays. Even if he doesn't score in one of the games he'll get enough phantom points to make it worth while. He's the new CRon when it comes to phantom points.

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  36. Anonymous12:15 PM

    whitehead = ultimate enabler this week

    ReplyDelete
  37. Anonymous3:30 PM

    @Nick Degel, well football's a funny game, you never know ;)

    A quick follow-up on Drogba since the 'Price vs Points Analysis' by AM. Drogba had 54pts in 5 games pre-ANC(as i said in that thread);11.5 in 2g post ANC. so Drogba's ave is 9.357(in last 7[eligible]games).In fact, since week11[vs Man U,0.5] he had only one extraordinary week[wk13/1game/26.5]. guess the opponent that week ;) If he can replicate THAT extraordinary performance, then he is worth, if not...
    ~Newbie

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  38. Eric Werner4:31 PM

    Do people think Boyata will be starting for MC? He came in for Kompany.

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