The Week Ahead

Feels like forever since I've written one of these and with 3 matches played by many of my players with an FA Cup weekend in-between, I guess it has been.  Since it has been a while, I'll do my best to remember how I arrived at the current make-up of my roster.  It has been evolving fairly regularly for the past 14 days which has seen some 35 to 40 inches of snow fall on us in the DC area followed by a trip to South Carolina for a half-marathon (my wife was running, not me - let's not be crazy) that was canceled because of 1.5" of snow that was completely melted by the time the race would have been run and finally on to Tampa, Florida for a week of working remotely somewhere that the weather doesn't threaten snow seemingly every day.  Somewhere in that chaos K2, Tevez, Drogs, Eth, and the amazingly resurgent Bale powered me to over 200 points in this match  week.  Hopefully, I can keep the momentum going.

This week, keeping the momentum going means loading up on ManYoo players as they (and WHU) have two matches each while everyone else has just one.  I want to point out (again) that I don't advocate picking up players ONLY because they have two matches but when you're thinking about your investments you have to consider the expected return you're going to get for your money.  Would you rather have someone like Milner who is priced at 12.69 and has an average output of 8.73 points/match and one great match-up (home to Burnley)? Or would you rather invest your money in someone like Valencia who is similarly priced (11.61) but doesn't produce as much (7.79) but seems very likely to play twice with Nani suspended and Giggs injured.  If Valencia is only average over the two matches Milner would need to have an exceptional match (almost double his average output) to return equal value.

An even better question arises about players like Ji Sung Park and Darren Fletcher.  Both are inexpensive (which is always nice to have in your squad mix) and likely to start due to the injury/suspension issues elsewhere in the United squad.  Most weeks, I'd tell you only to buy these guys if you're enabling more expensive players and you really don't have any expectations of points from them.  This week, however, they are elevated to strategic acquisitions as Fletcher with only two average performances of 5.14 each will far out-perform his price of  7.61 plus the potential that he will score a goal or get an assist or two and far outperform his price.  I'll grant you than you're rarely going to get excited watching either player unless you're a) a ManYou supporter or b) a coach who likes to give his players examples of players who earn their paychecks with hard work rather than flashy skills but finding the right buys like this from week-to-week is the real skill in fantasy footie.

Barn Door Preview
As you start thinking about what to do AFTER loading up on marginal ManYoo players this week, look no further than my weekly source of joy, confusion, and frustration Arsenal.  Their upcoming schedule is something of a cake walk with only @Stoke and @Birmingham seeming like possibilities where Arsenal might drop points between now and April 10 when they head to White Hart Lane for the North London Derby.  If you want to start getting excited for the points now, here's how it lays out...SUN, @STO, BUR, @HUL, WHU, @BRM, and WOL before @TOT.  Throw in the fact that there are some options that are more affordable than they have been in a while (Cesc at 18.61, Arsh at 13.01, Almunia at 8.63, Nasri at 8.21, Rosicky at 7.16, and Bendtner at 5.80) as well as guys like Diaby and Denilson who are priced at or just above their value to you and you have the chance to really cash in on what should be a nice run in both the league and for fantasy points.

One final thought on Arsenal before we get to the players recommendations.  Looking at the schedule ahead vs. much tougher ones for ManYoo and Chelsea I'm sure many are wondering if Arsenal have a chance at the title despite their obvious inferiority to their title rivals when playing them on the field.  I'm trying not to talk myself into a real title challenge despite the easy schedule.  I am sticking with my assertion that the Gunners are clearly the 3rd best team in the land with a wide gulf on either side (they're not really that close to ManYoo/Chelsea but neither are Liv/Spurs/Citeh/Villa that close to them).  I think they'll end up much closer to the title than they have been in recent years but I think that quality that separates the top two from Arsenal - call it resolve, character, or a killer instinct - will ultimately mean the difference in the title race.  If we get to April and May I have a hard time seeing one or both of the top two dropping points against the lesser lights of the Prem when they know they have to win.  They might make it harder on themselves than they need to by dropping points to the Birminghams of the world in January and February but when it comes down to crunch time, I can't see it happening.  So, again, do I think Arsenal can win? It wouldn't be the craziest thing that's ever happened but if you're asking me if I'm getting emotionally invested in an Arsenal title chase in March, April, and May then the answer is definitely no.

OK, on to the week ahead in fantasy football...

Strikers

• Rooney - because even though the price is high he's been co-player of the year (with Drogba) in both fantasy and the real world.  I'd give him the edge because Chelsea showed that they can win without Drogba, without Rooney, I have my doubts about United's ability to finish in the Top 6 with the talent on hand.
• Berbs - this week will be a big test for SAF and Berbs - with Nani and Giggs out and Owen out of favor there really aren't many attacking options for United.  This SEEMS to make Berbs a guaranteed two-match starter.  For some reason, I'm not convinced he will be.  If you think he will, then he's great value for the price.
• Drogs - he reminded us last week why we were all so bummed to give him up at a price of 10 or so.  With Wolves the opposition he should put up his usual points at a minimum.
• Sidibe - we need some less expensive guys here to balance out the premium talent and as I predicted, he has been great value since he took over a starting spot at Stoke (he had 25.5 across the 3 matches for a price of less than 5 last match week).  The price has gone up to the 7s but with Pompey the opposition, I still like this play.
• Gabby - a little pricey for my tastes since he only has one match but he tends to score in bunches and Burnley certainly has the potential to kick start one of those streaks.
• Kalinic - if you're looking for an enabler with a chance to do something, he might be your guy home to Bolton
• CCole - he gummed up the works a bit by scoring last week and driving up his price but still a decent bargain with two matches (and one is Hull).

Midfielders

• Valencia - this was a really tough call as recently as 10 days ago with SAF rotating Nani, Valencia, Giggs, and Park in and out of the line-up regularly but Nani and Giggs made our lives MUCH easier by bowing out for this match week making Valencia the must-have midfielder of the week.  Even better, his price came down a bit.
• Fletcher - for all the reasons discussed above
• Park - great enabler to get you to some of the expensive strikers
• Collison - he's been disappointing since a nice run of form in Nov/Dec - hard to say if his omission against Brum was just him being rested on the back end of two-matches over 4 days or an indictment of his recent form.  Assuming that he was rested he's a decent bargain.
• Noble - we've always liked him here at the blog but his price to production ratio hasn't been great this season but with the two matches he is probably a safer bet than Collison if you're worried Collison has actually been dropped
• Milner or Downing  - amazing that we could be recommending two Villa wingers and none of them are Ashley Young (and in reality Milner isn't a winger anymore but still).  The downside here is that there are so many people at Villa taking some of the kicks - AY, Milner, Downing, Warnock, and Petrov - that those points are spread really thin.
• MGP - been a while since we could feel good about recommending one of our faves from years gone by but he's had something of a revival and the match-up isn't a bad one for him.
• FloMal - he's been performing like we all hoped he would from the start of last season - a bit expensive but he's been worth it for the last 5 or 6 weeks.
• Zhirkov - like FloMal, he disappointed after a high profile move but with ACole out for a while, he breaks the rules but still a nice enabler to have at 5.17.
• Lawrence - see Jeremy's post from yesterday on Eth's injury and the potential benefit to Lawrence's prospects.

Defenders

• Evra - I usually don't recommend premium defenders but with RB likely split between GNev and Rafael and Rio/Vidic/Evans/Brown a bit of an uncertain mess at CB over the two matches Evra is really the only guy worth having among the two-gamers. Pretty sure WHU's over-priced two-gamers aren't going to get 2 CSs with ManYoo on the docket.
• Collins - worth seeing if he is going to start at left back for Stoke given the match-up.
• Luke Young - the price on all Villa defenders is high right now but his is the lowest and gives you a chance to get in on the Burnley action.
• Skertl - with Kyrgiakos suspended Skertl may deputize - the match-up isn't great but the crop of affordable defenders just isn't that attractive right now.

Keepers

• EvdS - if you can afford him there really isn't an alternative.
• Almunia/Fabianski - depending on the injury situation at Arsenal, Sunderland may offer a clean sheet for whoever the Arsenal keeper is.
• Robbo - for relatively cheap he gives you some hope of a return but I wouldn't sleep particularly well if I went down this road.

We'll be back tomorrow with injuries and suspensions...

Cheers - Neal