Season Preview - Liverpool

Quick Reminder, Real Life

What a crazy season it was for the Reds. To do it justice you’d probably have to write a book (and I hear Jeremy thinking to himself that this preview is entirely likely to turn into one the way I write). In the quick version we find the first half low-lighted by poor performances, the disasterous Joe Cole signing, Roy Hodgson being in over his head, a contentious change of ownership between two groups of Americans, and numerous debates online and in the press wondering whether Liverpool could possibly go down under the weight of all of the above.

As bad as the first half was, the second half was that good. New owners, back office staff, and manager made the bold move of selling off star Fernando Torres and replacing him with the excellent-so-far Luis Suarez and full-of-potential-but-overpriced Andy Carroll. The results improved dramatically and Raul Meireles proved to be more than adequate cover for oft-injured captain Steven Gerrard. All the drama aside, Liverpool had two major weaknesses last season - their left back position and playing away from Anfield where they could neither score nor keep the ball out of the net.

Quick Reminder, Fantasy

As crazy a season as it was for Liverpool on and off the pitch, it was no different for fantasy managers trying to figure this team out. Reina’s fortunes mimicked those of the club (bad early, better late). Meireles and Suarez had excellent second halves of the season while Carroll had a great first half while playing for Newcastle but injury dragged down his second half pretty badly. Finally, out of almost nowhere, Maxi Rodriguez had an absolutely amazing last two weeks which saw him get about a third of his overall output for the season. On the defensive side of the ball Martin Skertl was ever-present and had an OK season but the rest of the defenders were seemingly on a carousel due to injuries and general mediocrity.

Summer Changes

Adam to Liverpool

Liverpool Seal Charlie Adam Switch - SBNation.com

We've known it was coming for a while and now it appears to be official according to people all over the world wide webs.  The mysterious Liverpool summer in which they stockpile central midfielders and fail to address their core needs (LB, CB, and both wings).  It really leaves you wondering, doesn't it?

I like Adam as a player and he's certainly better than Henderson is right now.  That said, I'm not sure he's better than Meireles.  Whether he's better than Gerrard depends on which Gerrard shows up this year.  None of the above are better than Gerrard at his best but all of them might be better than broken-down, injury-plagued Gerrard.  Assuming that the Liverpool captain is somewhere in-between those two models coming into the new season, I have a hard time guessing where he falls in the pecking order.  One thing we do know is that unless he's physically unable to go, politics at Liverpool are such that he'll be in the line-up regardless of where age/injury have left his ability to perform. 

So what next for Liverpool? Does this signal the end of Meireles in red? (If Fab4 is leaving Arsenal they could do far worse than Meireles as a short term replacement while they're waiting for Ramsey, Wilshere, and the next young guy Wenger buys to grow into their prime.  Just a random thought but one I suspect will find its way into the gossip rags soon enough.  Alternatively, he'd be a great buy/exchange for Villa is they can't keep hold of Downing.

Adam Buyers Beware

As I sit watching David Silva come on for James Milner in the last 30 minutes of the Liverpool blowout of City today, I had a thought. We've seen Roy Hodgson rediscover both his mojo and his "proper depth" in the Premier League over the last two months. We've seen Milner (and Barry) struggle to justify their prices at a "big club" over the months since they came over from Villa. We've seen Scott Parker rediscover himself at West Ham. You get the idea.

What's my point? Some players (and managers) are meant to be big fish in little ponds while others are prepared to move on to bigger stages. The mere fact of being very good in the Premier League for a modest club is not enough to imply that you are likely to be ready for a step up.

This brings us to the case of Charlie Adam. First things first, I really like watching Adam play and I like it even more because he's been a rock for my fantasy team for most of the season at a very reasonable price. This isn't a diatribe against Charlie Adam. My worry for him is that he's not really big club material.

Why do I say that? His game will change if he moves up a few steps in the same sort of way that Uncle Woy's job changed when he moved from Fulham to Liverpool. Technically the job description is the same but that's only until you get to the fine print.

Say Adam moves to Liverpool, Spurs, or United (the three most frequently mentioned options), here's how his value will diminish:

• Free Kicks - much of Adam's value to Blackpool is on set pieces - he takes really good ones that lead to much needed goals.  At the clubs mentioned above you can't really see him taking kicks over Bale, Modric, Nani, Giggs, Gerrard, Meireles, or Suarez can you? 
• Possession/Creativity - Another major part of Adam's value is that he has a lot of the ball in the middle of the park for Blackpool and makes the incisive passes that often lead to the goals that have kept Blackpool at least alive and kicking for staying up.  At the clubs above - specifically Liverpool and Spurs - there are midfielders in Modric and Meireles who already do an excellent job in that role.  Again, Adam would be a nice back-up plan but would hardly be worth the money.
• Penalties -  Adam gets a bunch of his goals for Blackpool from the spot so while the total of 9 goals from a midfielder looks nice the fact that six of them are from the spot means that his value is based in great part on the fact that he'd be the main taker.  As above, it seems unlikely that Adam would be the choice at United/Spurs/Liverpool over the current cast of characters.  3 goals and 6 assists don't look quite as good as 9 goals and 6 assists, huh?
• Position - My sense is that Adam's best position is as a poor man's Alonso from the best days of Rafa's Liverpool.  He isn't a "Scholes-type" tucked in behind the forwards and he isn't a Makelele/Keane-like holding destroyer.  The best comparison might be Michael Carrick who was good for adequate Spurs teams but has similarly struggled with the move up in competition.

So there you have it, is Charlie Adam the next Michael Carrick?  Big transfer fee but unable to cut it at a top club? What say you?

Barn Door Team

The international break has thrown me for a bit of a loop, especially on the heels of the FA Cup break we just had. So I'm having a tough time getting back into the swing of of EPL things. But we have to start somewhere, right? And what better place than with the team I assembled on the barn door last weekend (two weeks ago!).

Part of me says, stop right there.  Don't look again.  Don't, whatever the inclination, Friday trade!  But let's be honest... that's inevitable.  Stupid, but inevitable.  Looking at the team, what jumps out at me is:

• Two Hammers facing Manchester United.  Yes, WHU are playing better and ManU struggle a bit on the road.  But do I really want both Ba and Hitzlsperger?  They're both at cost so they could be moved out for the weekend and brought back for the upcoming games against Bolton and Aston Villa without penalty.
• Osman.  What to do with Osman?  He was a GREAT pickup over Everton's recent double-game week and was ok last game week against Fulham.  Everton have a good run of fixtures upcoming and it might be worth keeping him.  But it sure isn't a sexy pick.
• There are injury doubts over van Persie (could be back), Walker (should be back), and Adam (expected to be back).  Obviously all signs are good at this point, but the uncertainty is starting to make me nervous.

Clearly there is much to discuss over the next two days, but that's where I am right now.  You?

Scary Headlines Hall of Fame

Blackpool hit by Charlie Adam injury scare

Fortunately the article, even though it starts dire, paints a rosier picture:

Charlie Adam hopes to be fit for Blackpool's crunch clash at Fulham on Sunday after an injury scare in Scotland’s 2-0 defeat by Brazil yesterday.

National team boss Craig Levein suggested though Adam was suffering more mentally than physically after failing to carry his Blackpool form into the high-profile friendly at Arsenal.

The Seasiders skipper conceded the penalty for the Brazilians’ second and hurt his knee making a challenge but he insisted it was nothing serious.

Adam said: "I just got a whack on it. We clashed knees but I’ll be all right and hopefully I’ll be ready for the weekend."

I still fear the dreaded "late fitness test". But with the match on Sunday I expect he'll be fit. He's come through these knocks before this season.

Adam Suspended for Two Matches

Adam to miss BPL's next TWO matches - FYI RT @FOXSoccerTrax: CAUTION Adam (Blackpool) And that brings a suspension.less than a minute ago via yoonoNeal Thurman
nealjthurman

He'll miss @Wolves (shame) and Chelsea (where you might not have wanted him anyway).

Aston Villa table increased Adam bid

When last we met...

Aston Villa table increased Adam bid - Fansfc

Aston Villa Football Club have tabled an improved offer for Charlie Adam.

The 25-year-old has made a big impact in the Premier League for Blackpool this season, and Ian Holloway accepts he has a fight to hold on to the Scottish ace.

An offer of £2.5million from Villa was rejected earlier this week, but skysports.com understands Gerard Houllier has now returned with a bid in the region of £3.5million.

Reports also have Birmingham sniffing around.

It would be foolish for Holloway to play Adam against Liverpool with this level of uncertainty surrounding his future. Certainly his head isn't right for the match. Also, he's an asset now and you couldn't risk devaluing that asset to an injury this midweek. Right?

Right?

And certainly I'm not just trying to work the jinx because I don't have Adam in my fantasy team this week. Certainly not!

Barn Door (Almost) Live

How can I afford myself in fantasy? How can I afford not to?

Jeremy Spitzberg: what have I missed?
Neal Thurman: no Rooney :-( but Nani in and with an assist
Neal Thurman: Chicharito goal
Neal Thurman: Brum goal from Hleb
Neal Thurman: WBA lost another defender to injury (Cech)
Jeremy Spitzberg: and thus the barn door conundrums begin

Adam Out After Accumulation

Boss slams Adam decision - Yahoo! Eurosport

Blackpool boss Ian Holloway has branded the decision to show Charlie Adam a yellow card in Saturday's 1-0 victory at Stoke as 'absolute nonsense'.

Adam received the booking - his fifth of the campaign - from referee Anthony Taylor in the first half at the Britannia Stadium following an aerial challenge with Dean Whitehead.

It means the Seasiders captain will miss his side's Barclays Premier League clash with Tottenham next weekend, and Holloway felt the match official made the wrong call.

Adjust your line-ups accordingly.

On Bale

Well, I said nice things about Spurs (deservedly) and ManYoo (also deservedly) and wasn't particularly enamored with Arsenal's performance despite their win and yet the shouts of "you're biased" still came ringing in the comments section of "First Impressions and Second Thoughts."  Honestly, I'm coming to enjoy it a bit so keep it up.  To the extent that I have time, I'll continue to discuss my (non-biased) rationale for my opinions.  The main subject of displeasure this time around was the fact that I called out Bale as still not being fantasy value on a weekend where the Bale fantasy apologists were still glowing from his 29 point, 2 goal effort.  For those who still don't believe me that you should have sold him weeks ago despite this past weekend's outburst, here are the numbers:

Since Bale's last major outburst in Week 2 (33.5 points), he has been averaging 10 points/match and has cost approximately 15.  Over the course of 11 matches, you've gotten approximately 110 points from him at the combined cost of about 165.  For those of you who had Bale from the beginning of the season, you got those same 110 points for a cost of about 132.  So, what else could you have had for your money over that stretch that leads me to believe that you should have spent differently?

The Week Ahead - Week 4 Edition

I was preparing myself to fill the space generally reserved for ranting about whatever is on my mind with news about the various injuries sustained by key players - Defoe, Dawson, Walcott, et al - over the international break but since Jeremy already covered that here and here there isn't much sense in being repetitive.  Just click and see his fine work.

Honestly, with 4 fantasy (gridiron) football teams getting ready to kickoff the new NFL season this evening and two weeks where there was very little news other than injuries, I have to say that I'm a little bit at a loss as to what to write about leading up to my weekly analysis.  I will go on record with a few NFL predictions that probably none of you outside of the US care about but I'd like to get them on record somewhere so I can take credit for them later in the year.  Plus, we're all about fantasy sports here so there is at least some relevance.

• Kevin Kolb may or may not get the Eagles to the playoffs but he's going to be an excellent fantasy quarterback.  Under Andy Reid (the exceedingly plump coach, not the slightly overweight Sunderland midfielder) the Eagles have always thrown for a lot of yards no matter who the QB has been.
• The New England Patriots aren't going to be very good this year.  Randy Moss bitching about his contract, best O-lineman holding out, best D-lineman out for the year, best CB out for the year, no quality running backs.  I am all for giving Brady/Belicheck their due but at some point there has to be some talent and I just don't see it.  No playoffs in New England.
• Arian Foster will be a top 10 fantasy running back.  Great offense and he fits their style to a T.
• Malcolm Floyd will be the Arian Foster of wide receivers.
• San Francisco will look great until the playoffs when they have to start playing much better teams.  SF players will be great for fantasy but will not deliver in the end when it matters - but maybe next year.
• Dallas will be a playoff team but not the best team in the NFC.
• Kansas City and Oakland will battle down to the wire for a playoff spot and both will be much better than expected on offense - I think Oakland will win out because they were already pretty solid on D.
• Green Bay and Baltimore (who should get healthier on defense as the year goes on) will play in the Super Bowl.
• Green Bay will win it all.

OK, I feel better having that out of the way.  For those of you who don't care, I apologize, back to the Premier League and EPL fantasy now.

Alert: Charlie Adam Price Break

We here at the blog aren't sure how long whatever glitch is going on over at Yahoo! will last but for those of you who didn't get Charlie Adam on the Barn Door last weekend and are interested in doing so, this is the time.  Some quirk of the database has reset his price to under 5.5.  So if you want to take a chance that the team that allowed Gerrard 15 points (despite him playing in a deeper-lying position than usual and without benefit of either a goal or an assist) might give up some points to Adam as well then get to it. I'm not sure that I'm going to keep him but I'm happy to have the opportunity.

Season Preview: Blackpool

Overall Outlook - It's no surprise that Blackpool's outlook is bleak. Dire, even. And the club seems okay with that. They were promoted via a "magical" run into and through the play-offs, driven by loanees who have not returned. Credit to them for knowing that they won't survive the year in the Premier League and not spending money they don't have.

But that being said, it's going to be a horrible year as they don't look set to compete at all. Even Burnley had a few years of Cup success against top-flight teams to hang their hat upon. Blackpool don't have the pedigree or the talent. Their two best performers last season were Seamus Coleman and DJ Campbell, neither of whom are returning. Matches are going to get ugly and it's not going to be an advertisement for "the best league in the world".

One to Watch

Adam eager for top-flight test

Yes, Blackpool are going to be terrible next season. But there's been fantasy profit from terrible teams before. Usually you need to find the midfielder who takes the kicks and pulls the strings (to whatever limited effect). For Blackpool, that guy is Charlie Adam. 17 goals last season in the league, including penalty kicks, and scored a free kick in the playoff final.

I'm not saying he's +10, but he might be worth a look as a cheap, enabling midfielder next season.

Of course, I've been wrong before.