Showing posts with label Manchester City. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Manchester City. Show all posts
The Week Ahead, Part 2 - Player Picks
I have to admit that my first experiences watching a Roberto Mancini-coached team was a good one. It was in a pre-scandal Italy (at least the recent one). Inter Milan were still a plucky 3rd or 4th best team fighting to keep up with Milan and Juve. The thing that I remember enjoying about them is that you could see just about anything from them on any given weekend. They could play the typical Italian grinding style and win 1-0, they could go up 3-0 and find a way to give away that lead for a thrilling conclusion or they could go down 3-0 and come all the way back to win 4-3. It was a win of the latter type that I recall as my first meaningful recollection of Mancini. It wasn't enough to get me to follow Serie A religiously but it was enough for me to pull for Inter.
I mention this because the same sort of pattern seems to be unfolding at Manchester City. The budget is bigger. The upside of the talent at his disposal is higher. Still, there appear to be two common characteristics that bond his Inter teams with his City teams. The first is their variance in mental discipline. No matter what has happened in the matches and even the minutes leading up to a specific instant in time appears to be entirely irrelevant to predicting what will happen next. Their first choice players will be playing poorly (like last weekend) and someone deep in the doghouse (Balotelli) or in a deep slump (Milner) score goals. You just never seem to know what is going to happen next. The week before it was looking great for the first 60 or 70 minutes and then collapsing and giving up a 2-0 lead on the road in the last 20 minutes rather than creating a 2 goal lead in the last 20 minutes.
The other thing that binds these two Mancini teams is the presence of some, shall we say, unique personalities. This season's edition features Tevez's increasingly bizarre and petulant behavior, de Jong's no-holds-barred challenges (and occasional dirty play), Dzeko's seemingly from out of nowhere personality, and of course Balotelli-being-Balotelli. For me, since I really have little for or against City historically, the combination of these two factors and Mancini's ability to manage a team to just about any outcome has made them a really fun story to follow this season. May it long continue rather than evolving the way Chelsea did under similar financial circumstances. It would be a shame if City became more ruthless but at the same time less interesting to watch.
OK, on to the player picks:
I mention this because the same sort of pattern seems to be unfolding at Manchester City. The budget is bigger. The upside of the talent at his disposal is higher. Still, there appear to be two common characteristics that bond his Inter teams with his City teams. The first is their variance in mental discipline. No matter what has happened in the matches and even the minutes leading up to a specific instant in time appears to be entirely irrelevant to predicting what will happen next. Their first choice players will be playing poorly (like last weekend) and someone deep in the doghouse (Balotelli) or in a deep slump (Milner) score goals. You just never seem to know what is going to happen next. The week before it was looking great for the first 60 or 70 minutes and then collapsing and giving up a 2-0 lead on the road in the last 20 minutes rather than creating a 2 goal lead in the last 20 minutes.
The other thing that binds these two Mancini teams is the presence of some, shall we say, unique personalities. This season's edition features Tevez's increasingly bizarre and petulant behavior, de Jong's no-holds-barred challenges (and occasional dirty play), Dzeko's seemingly from out of nowhere personality, and of course Balotelli-being-Balotelli. For me, since I really have little for or against City historically, the combination of these two factors and Mancini's ability to manage a team to just about any outcome has made them a really fun story to follow this season. May it long continue rather than evolving the way Chelsea did under similar financial circumstances. It would be a shame if City became more ruthless but at the same time less interesting to watch.
OK, on to the player picks:
The Week Ahead, Part 1 - The Schedule
Good to see Olof Mellberg again. It's been a while.
In case you hadn't guessed, I am watching Arsenal vs. Olympiokos on DVR as I write this column. I figured I'd better watch because I need to catch up on all the midweek excitement that I started missing out on yesterday while I was on the road for work. Jeremy wrote about the drama at Manchester City and we've started to see stories elsewhere on topics related to the quality of Manchester United minus Wayne Rooney after their second consecutive draw to an inferior opponent.
The story line coming out of Arsenal seems likely to be the effectiveness of the unusual line-up that Wenger trotted out for the home tie with the Greek side. If we didn't know Wenger better we'd guess that a line-up featuring Chamakh, Ox, Santos, Rosicky, and Frimpong would be one that would feature in the Carling Cup or the earlier stages of the FA Cup, not the Champions League group stage after dropping 2 points late in their opener in Germany. Now, we DO know Wenger and for that reason we can be reasonably assured that his Carling Cup team will be significantly younger than this one.
[Match Update] The returns are positive early as I'm only two paragraphs in and the Ox made a nice move across the box and finished with aplomb. [/Match Update]
The topic of The Ox brings me to another Arsenal related topic that underscores a point I made a few weeks back about how difficult and/or unusual it is for innovators like Wenger to be able to repeat the magic a second or third time once his rivals have caught up or surpassed the initial innovations that made him special in the first place.
Wenger's real trick was identifying undervalued "properties" and those opportunities generally came from one or two places - players like Vieira or Henry who were under-performing on the benches of big clubs elsewhere and players from lower profile countries or leagues. That second group of players tended to come from places like West Africa that most clubs hadn't yet realized was a hotbed of emerging talent. In the supply and demand-driven world of transfer economics, the relative lack of suitors meant low prices.
[Match Update] Nice ball in from Santos for a streaking ChamWow and then an even better follow-up for Arsenal's second goal. That guy would be a fantasy force and a line-up fixture if he weren't, you know, forced to defend. If Arsenal played with a true left midfielder in the Ashley Young/Stuart Downing mold, I'd advocate for Santos to be that guy and all the better since he's listed (without irony apparently) as a defender. As I was finishing this mini-update off ChamWow got a great opportunity and couldn't finish, what happened to him? [/Match Update]
A funny thing happened on the way to this model continuing to produce for Arsenal and Wenger, they either stopped pushing the frontier of emerging talent. With the widespread realization that a bunch of African nations produce a great deal of talent, the competition and prices for that talent has gone up. As other clubs have gone to places like Uruguay, Paraguay, Mexico, and the US to find relatively cheap talents like Luis Suarez, Chicharito and Clint Dempsey. Until the summer acquisitions of both a Japanese and Costa Rican player, Arsenal had been conspicuously slow to either enter or find any success in these emerging markets for talent. Carlos Vela has been their only real brush with any of these emerging countries.
Instead, they have been spending their time and resources on recruiting expensive domestic and continental talent like Ox, Walcott, Nasri, and Ramsey at the "up and coming" level and players like Arshavin, Gervinho, Arteta, Mertesacker, and Vermaelen at the "established" level. It isn't necessarily a complaint related to the players acquired but a question about the ability to succeed if they are going to be competing for players everyone is watching. If guys like Aguero, Silva, and Mata represent the best "obvious" players that could be bought, it means that Arsenal are going to try to win by buying the second tier of "obvious" players. Their system of play has been successful and fun to watch but it isn't sufficiently superior to elevate a team of second tier talents over a team of first tier talents.
[Match Update] Can we just ship Arshavin off now. I just saw the reverse angle of Olympiokos' comically-easy first goal. As the Greek player steamed toward the ball he eventually headed into the net, Arshavin - the closest Gunner - just sat there and watched like it was beneath him to track a late attacking run. If that's how he feels, then why not at least spread the field and be further up for a quick counter attack? Just no excuse for wandering aimlessly NEAR the area without putting out any effort to defend while you're there. [/Match Update]
In case you're wondering, the above was inspired indirectly by an email conversation I had with Simon Kuper (and yes, I'm shamelessly name-dropping) in which he called the types of books he writes "useful". I figured I'd better continue to use what I learned from reading Soccernomics and his column from Financial Times [Free Registration Required].
I know I write about Arsenal a fair amount but hopefully you continue to find the perspective both unbiased and at least a little bit different than what you're reading elsewhere. With that, we're on to our analysis of the upcoming schedule:
Tevez and Dzeko in hot water with Mancini
Exit stage right.
The news coming out of Manchester City's 0-2 loss to Bayern Munich is explosive. Evidently, Carlos Tevez refused to come on as a substitute. As a result,
Roberto Mancini tells the post-match press conference that Carlos Tevez will "never, never play for City again".In addition, it's also being reported on Twitter that Dzeko will also be benched.
It won't get as much coverage but Mancini was "furious" with Edin Dzeko too - "he will sit the next game next to me"This may be the chance for
UPDATE: Evidently, Dzeko had a strop when he was substituted.
Mancini also had strong words for striker Edin Dzeko who also reacted poorly at being a sub.
“As for Dzeko, if he plays better next time, then maybe he can stay on the pitch.Video, after the jump.
“If we want to improve to the level of Bayern Munich, some players need to improve their behaviour.
“Dzeko was unhappy but I should be the one who is unhappy after his performance, not Dzeko.
“This is the last time that any player moves his head from side to side like this when they are substituted. You can feel upset inside but keep it inside.”
UPDATE, Part the Second:
''Manchester City can confirm that striker Carlos Tevez has been suspended until further notice for a maximum period of two weeks,'' read a club statement.
''The player's suspension is pending a full review into his alleged conduct during Tuesday evening's 2-0 defeat to Bayern Munich. The player will not be considered for selection or take part in training whilst the review is under way.''
First XI - What We Learned in Week 6
Sometimes there's no substitute for a good old fashioned lesson/reminder about what not to do in picking your fantasy team. The first lesson I (re)learned this past weekend is that Friday trading with no additional information will generally lead to you out-thinking yourself.
What do I mean? On Friday, without any news from Wenger, I got it in my head that Gibbs might not start and that I should move to Boyata as a "more stable" enabler pick at the back. This despite watching the Rovers match last weekend in which Santos essentially handed Rovers the two goals they scored themselves by playing Yakubu onside (even if one of the two wasn't actually onside, he was playing unnecessarily close and made it easier for the linesman to make the mistake). Regardless, I made the switch and more so than losing out on that many points (2.5 for Boyata vs. 6 for Gibbs) I lost a likely starter from ARS for most of the year at 2.something for an occasional starter from BOL for a similar price. Not a wise move.
The other lesson I (re)learned was that you shouldn't try to get too cute. The other move I made on Friday was that I initially decided that it would be a good idea to double down on CHE defenders. I swapped Richards out and brought in Luiz thinking he would start given the modest opposition. An email exchange with Jeremy (fortunately) convinced me that Luiz was probably not going to start. For some reason, after making that determination I didn't go straight back to Richards but started over-thinking my choice and decided to go with Smalling. Indefensible move really. He's playing away to a solid team vs. Richards playing at home against a solid team. I let the NdJ injury get into my head too much and it ended with zero points when Smalling was left out of the squad vs. the 8 that Richards got for his modest phantom points and a clean sheet. The overall result was about 10 points that I got vs. 23 or so that I would have gotten if I'd stuck to my guns and followed the rules.
The third thing I (re)learned was to listen to my own advice. I called the Ramires performance but didn't pull the trigger much to my own chagrin.
OK, enough of my bitching, on to the more important observations about Week 6 in the Premier League that apply to all of our teams (and occasionally the real world too).
The Week Ahead, Part 1 - The Schedule
I have to be honest, I'm not feeling much in a ranting mood today. A mid-week full of Carling Cup matches doesn't provide a lot of fodder for a good rant. So, in the interest of keeping it brief (for once) I'll move directly to the schedule analysis which, I know, tends to go a little long anyway.
First XI - What We Learned in Week 5
In theory when you're a journalist you don't root for teams and therefore all you're looking for is an angle, something interesting to write about that will get people to buy your newspaper, click on your link, or head to the Facebook page to make some pithy comments about your genius idiocy. As much as we'd all like to believe that our journalists stick to this standard (because they tell us over and over that they do), people don't get into sports journalism because it is incredibly lucrative or because it is likely to get you a lot of acclaim with the opposite sex. No, they get into it because they are huge sports fans who aren't athletic enough to play sports for a living and this is the most feasible way to earn a living being involved with a kids game while still being able to afford to eat.
One of the best things about the blogging revolution is that it has removed the necessity to keep up the illusion that those of us that write about the game don't also have personal feelings about the teams and players. I try to remain as objective as I can when doing analysis for fantasy purposes because fantasy is a game of numbers and you'll only read what I have to write if my advice is helpful. Favoring the teams and players I LIKE versus the ones who are likely to be productive will lead to people thinking my analysis sucks and turning to one or more of the other options available for their fantasy league preparation. That said, in the spaces around the objective fantasy analysis, I am not shy about letting you know who I like and dislike, respect and don't respect, root for and root against, etc.
The reason I give you this preamble is that it has taken me a while to arrive at something I'm happy about writing this week because this weekend was a pretty depressing one for me as a fan. It was the moment that I finally decided that Arsene Wenger is done. I'll propose a potential remedy for their current ailments below but I have no sense that it will happen. To heap general misery on top of the state of Arsenal and its impact on me is the fact that almost all of the meaningful storylines this past weekend were negative. Here's the run down from I to XI...
Injuries and Suspensions: Week 4
Premier League team news - ESPN Soccernet:
Here is the important news from behind the link along with the fantasy implications that the news implies.
The Week Ahead: Part 1 - The Schedule
With the Manchester teams continuing to dominate the standings - both real and fantasy points - we come upon the first real test of the season. Chelsea arrives at Old Trafford as the first team not already eliminated from the title race to face either high-flying Manchester side. I don't really believe that Chelsea are in the race for the championship but with the collection of raw talent on hand and the fact that we're early in the season means we can't entirely write the possibility off (like we can for Arsenal, Spurs, and Liverpool). Additionally, the memory of the United/Chelsea match at the close of last season should also be fresh in the minds of fantasy managers as there weren't that many points to be had there.
The occasion of Manchester United vs. Chelsea brings us a major dilemma. Do we assume that United will continue to plow ahead with their domination of their opponents? If we make that assumption then it is a strong move to keep the United players - DDG, Rooney, Chicharito, etc - who you may have at a discount.
The alternative is to assume that Chelsea will make things very difficult for United and regardless of the outcome, make fantasy points hard to come by. If you make that assumption the question becomes "where do I spend the money I'd been plowing into ManYoo players?"
I wish there were some statistical technique that I had unearthed to give you some hidden insight into the answer to the dilemma posed above. Sadly, I don't have anything like that handy and if I did, I'd be gambling on my inside information rather than writing about it. What I will push forward are a few thoughts:
1) United are at home and over the past four seasons they are 3-1 against Chelsea at Old Trafford (when Chelsea were arguably more talented) with two clean sheets. The last 2 matches have been 2-1 affairs with one going in each direction.
2) I like Chelsea's array of talent a lot more now with Mata, Sturridge, and Lukaku attacking, Luiz at the back, and AVB seemingly willing to tell Torres to have a seat until he starts doing his job and scoring goals. The flipside of that statement is that the roster still feels disjointed with an odd mix of fading talents (JT, Lamps, Drogs, Elk) and rising stars (the group above and maybe Ramires if you're feeling charitable about his potential and athletic skills). What Chelsea still lack is a core of exceptional players at the peak of their powers to bring together the old and the new. FloMal, Mikel, Alex, Ivanovic, and Torres (plus Essien) were supposed to be those guys and while only Torres has been abjectly horrible none of the others among the healthy of that group have been exceptional either. FloMal has had some exceptional stretches and Ivanovic has had some stretches of well-above-average-ness but that's about it. More than enough on most days but not against the United buzzsaw.
3) By contrast to the picture of Chelsea painted above, United have a great combination of young (DDG, Smalling, Jones, Anderson, Cleverly, Welbeck, the twins, and Chicharito), old (mostly just Giggs and Rio now that GNev and Scholes have retired), and exceptional players in their primes (Rooney, AY, Vidic, Nani, and Evra). When playing at home, it is going to be hard to overcome that combination.
Overall, my verdict (in the tradition of this year's version of this column) is that I'd favor United's attackers to do very well in this match-up but I'm not as bullish on their defenders and DDG being able to hold a clean sheet. Verdict: Advantage United Attackers.
With my extended United vs. Chelsea preview out of the way, here are some notes on the other notable match-ups for the coming week:
Eleven Things We Learned: Week 4
Never let it be said that I'm not happy to bow to the will of the audience. You asked for 11 things that we learned instead of 10 and, never one to turn down the opportunity to write more rather than less, I'm in. I have to admit that I was on the road returning from vacation all day on Saturday. I followed the matches online as they happened, I watched the replay of the Arsenal match, and I saw most of both Sunday matches. Not as much as I'd like to have see as the basis for this column but enough, when combined with highlights and fantasy results, to make for a strong column (or so I'd like to think).
Injuries and Suspensions
- Arsenal v Swansea
- Everton v Aston Villa
- Man City v Wigan
- Stoke v Liverpool
- Sunderland v Chelsea
- Wolves v Tottenham
- Bolton v Man Utd
- Norwich v West Brom
- Fulham v Blackburn
The Week Ahead, Part 2 - Player Picks
Unfortunately, my schedule and a general lack of a reliable internet connection prevented me from posting as much as I'd have liked about the transfer window. In an effort to at least summarize some thoughts related to fantasy before the matches start up I'll do a quick version here before we get to this week's player picks.
Villa - As Spurs play revolving Right Backs with Villa Kyle Walker (and then Luke Young) head out and Alan Hutton makes his way in as the presumed starting right back. For those hoping that Eric Lichaj (and his rock bottom price) would get a start you will have no such luck. At 7.60, Hutton is his typical self. Reasonably priced for now when he is at home against modest competition. He'll occasionally have a solid attacking match but nothing you should get too excited about.
Rovers - I really like the move for Scott Dann and there are other teams (Spurs, Arsenal, etc.) who would have done well to make that same move as cover for injury-plagued center back corps. From a fantasy standpoint, not much to see here as Dann won't likely be a definite starter.
Bolton - Speaking of cut-priced defenders, Bolton got a nice one in Boyata who should get a long run of matches for a price of 2.05. I wouldn't go in on him at home against United this coming weekend but the Barn Door holds some promise of a home match with Norwich the following week. Other moves that deserve watching from a fantasy standpoint are the arrivals of Kakuta (we'll see how he fits in with Eagles and MPet) and N'gog (also likely to start out as a reserve). I don't see either man going straight into the squad but there is at least SOME potential there.
Everton - I have to admit that I haven't watched much Spanish soccer recently and even if I had, I'm not sure I'd have seen much of Royston Drenthe. At one point he played well enough for Real to buy him but he's been mostly forgotten since then. Whether he still has anything to offer remains to be seen. I know even less of Denis Stracqualursi but you have to think he'll get a good run of playing time with Beckford and Yakubu sold off and Saha always a risk to be hurt (seriously, he could have been hurt while I was writing this paragraph). The real winner here might be young Ross Barkley who will likely get a chance to play with Arteta gone from the Everton midfield. That one really looks like he'll be worth watching.
Fulham - I'm liking this Fulham team more and more with two solid acquisitions in Grygera and Ruiz. Grygera will likely end up as an inexpensive starting right back option which is always nice to have around. Ruiz could be anything from the next Alvarez, Mutu, Suarez to van Nistelrooy. My guess is that he ends up injecting some pace into the Fulham attack to give them additional looks. Hard to know whether he'll start regularly but I'll certainly be keeping tabs to find out on both. There may be some downside here for Zamora/Dembele/Dempsey.
NUFC - Davide Santon doesn't sound terribly Italian but at one point he was supposed to be the next big thing in Italian defenders. If regular playing time can help him capture even some of that back then this is a great move for NUFC. The question is whether RTay moves up to play left midfield (which would be good for him) or whether he goes to the bench in favor of Gutierrez. If RTay goes to the bench then there may be some upside for Cabaye who will likely get more kicks. Definitely worth watching to see how this works out.
QPR - Welcome to the club the poor man's version of the Premier League starter kit. Joey Barton, SWP, Anton Ferdinand, and Luke Young all bring solid campaigners who are likely paid much more than they are worth. Club finances aside though, they should be upgrades over what QPR had. Barton, SWP and Taarabt could combine to make a very solid attacking midfield trio. The question that we'll all need to be watching is who will be taking kicks between Taarabt and Barton and how much SWP has left in the tank. SWP, due to his low price, 4.39, could be particularly interesting if he finds some of his old form.
Stoke - For me, Crouch is the only marginally interesting signing here and I'm still not sure he starts. I assume Kenwyne Jones has the starting role as a target forward and regardless of Tony Pulis' love for fielding a basketball team rather than a soccer team, the idea of a Jones/Crouch partnership just feels awkward.
Sunderland - As bad an idea as Crouch to Stoke seems, I'm very optimistic about Bendtner to Sunderland. He's exactly the kind of foil they need for Gyan up top. I also think he'll be very good despite the fact he seems like a bit of a d!ck of a person. That he comes in at a price of 5.55 doesn't hurt either.
OK, that was a long build-up so now we'll get to the player recommendations:
Villa - As Spurs play revolving Right Backs with Villa Kyle Walker (and then Luke Young) head out and Alan Hutton makes his way in as the presumed starting right back. For those hoping that Eric Lichaj (and his rock bottom price) would get a start you will have no such luck. At 7.60, Hutton is his typical self. Reasonably priced for now when he is at home against modest competition. He'll occasionally have a solid attacking match but nothing you should get too excited about.
Rovers - I really like the move for Scott Dann and there are other teams (Spurs, Arsenal, etc.) who would have done well to make that same move as cover for injury-plagued center back corps. From a fantasy standpoint, not much to see here as Dann won't likely be a definite starter.
Bolton - Speaking of cut-priced defenders, Bolton got a nice one in Boyata who should get a long run of matches for a price of 2.05. I wouldn't go in on him at home against United this coming weekend but the Barn Door holds some promise of a home match with Norwich the following week. Other moves that deserve watching from a fantasy standpoint are the arrivals of Kakuta (we'll see how he fits in with Eagles and MPet) and N'gog (also likely to start out as a reserve). I don't see either man going straight into the squad but there is at least SOME potential there.
Everton - I have to admit that I haven't watched much Spanish soccer recently and even if I had, I'm not sure I'd have seen much of Royston Drenthe. At one point he played well enough for Real to buy him but he's been mostly forgotten since then. Whether he still has anything to offer remains to be seen. I know even less of Denis Stracqualursi but you have to think he'll get a good run of playing time with Beckford and Yakubu sold off and Saha always a risk to be hurt (seriously, he could have been hurt while I was writing this paragraph). The real winner here might be young Ross Barkley who will likely get a chance to play with Arteta gone from the Everton midfield. That one really looks like he'll be worth watching.
Fulham - I'm liking this Fulham team more and more with two solid acquisitions in Grygera and Ruiz. Grygera will likely end up as an inexpensive starting right back option which is always nice to have around. Ruiz could be anything from the next Alvarez, Mutu, Suarez to van Nistelrooy. My guess is that he ends up injecting some pace into the Fulham attack to give them additional looks. Hard to know whether he'll start regularly but I'll certainly be keeping tabs to find out on both. There may be some downside here for Zamora/Dembele/Dempsey.
NUFC - Davide Santon doesn't sound terribly Italian but at one point he was supposed to be the next big thing in Italian defenders. If regular playing time can help him capture even some of that back then this is a great move for NUFC. The question is whether RTay moves up to play left midfield (which would be good for him) or whether he goes to the bench in favor of Gutierrez. If RTay goes to the bench then there may be some upside for Cabaye who will likely get more kicks. Definitely worth watching to see how this works out.
QPR - Welcome to the club the poor man's version of the Premier League starter kit. Joey Barton, SWP, Anton Ferdinand, and Luke Young all bring solid campaigners who are likely paid much more than they are worth. Club finances aside though, they should be upgrades over what QPR had. Barton, SWP and Taarabt could combine to make a very solid attacking midfield trio. The question that we'll all need to be watching is who will be taking kicks between Taarabt and Barton and how much SWP has left in the tank. SWP, due to his low price, 4.39, could be particularly interesting if he finds some of his old form.
Stoke - For me, Crouch is the only marginally interesting signing here and I'm still not sure he starts. I assume Kenwyne Jones has the starting role as a target forward and regardless of Tony Pulis' love for fielding a basketball team rather than a soccer team, the idea of a Jones/Crouch partnership just feels awkward.
Sunderland - As bad an idea as Crouch to Stoke seems, I'm very optimistic about Bendtner to Sunderland. He's exactly the kind of foil they need for Gyan up top. I also think he'll be very good despite the fact he seems like a bit of a d!ck of a person. That he comes in at a price of 5.55 doesn't hurt either.
OK, that was a long build-up so now we'll get to the player recommendations:
The Week Ahead: Part 1 - The Schedule
The first international break of the season. It always comes too quickly and seems like it goes on forever. I'm sure there are all sorts of reasons not to do this but why wouldn't the nice people at the Premier League suggest (read: Force) FIFA to have their international date in late August so that:
The benefits would be as follows:
I'd assume that there are logical arguments about fixture congestion that mean that the changes would have to be more sweeping than just one switch out of international fixtures with Premier League matches but I'm sure some grouping of internationals in late August with the elimination of corresponding breaks in the Autumn months could be figured out pretty easily to allow a post-August 31 start to the season without the type of interruptions that we are now experiencing just when we were getting into the season.
If I thought really hard about it I could argue that a solid two week block of international matches in August would be great for both clubs and countries. It would give the national teams a rare solid block of time together. It would give clubs some pre-season time to play and train with some younger (and squad) players. It would give teams without a ton of internationals a slight advantage early in the season. Can anyone think of a reason that this might be a bad thing?
OK, enough ranting and on to the schedule breakdown for the week ahead:
- People could get back from their vacations;
- There wasn't an unseemly break just after the start of the season; and
- The transfer window could be completed (or all-but) before the matches start up.
The benefits would be as follows:
- The presence of families back from their vacations might increase attendance in places where that is an issue.
- Clubs would have their actual squad for more matches that count. The velocity of change between the first Premier League match of the season and the end of the window is pretty stupid and doesn't exist to my knowledge in any other sport in the world.
- There would be more continuity to the story lines as they develop rather than getting the club narrative started only to have it interrupted almost immediately. It doesn't take a genius storyteller to notice this.
I'd assume that there are logical arguments about fixture congestion that mean that the changes would have to be more sweeping than just one switch out of international fixtures with Premier League matches but I'm sure some grouping of internationals in late August with the elimination of corresponding breaks in the Autumn months could be figured out pretty easily to allow a post-August 31 start to the season without the type of interruptions that we are now experiencing just when we were getting into the season.
If I thought really hard about it I could argue that a solid two week block of international matches in August would be great for both clubs and countries. It would give the national teams a rare solid block of time together. It would give clubs some pre-season time to play and train with some younger (and squad) players. It would give teams without a ton of internationals a slight advantage early in the season. Can anyone think of a reason that this might be a bad thing?
OK, enough ranting and on to the schedule breakdown for the week ahead:
10 Things We Learned: Week 3
What an incredible weekend. It started with a forward who scored one goal all of last season scoring a brace and ended with three of the more remarkable fantasy performances we are likely to see all season - one from a forward who himself only scored twice in the league last season (admittedly in limited opportunity over only 15 matches).
[NOTE: Yup, I'm still tweaking the format for this Monday/Matchweek Wrap-up column. If you have any suggestions, I'm happy to hear them. The content is the content but I'm trying to come up with a nice wrapper/theme to pull it all together]
[NOTE: Yup, I'm still tweaking the format for this Monday/Matchweek Wrap-up column. If you have any suggestions, I'm happy to hear them. The content is the content but I'm trying to come up with a nice wrapper/theme to pull it all together]
The Week Ahead: Part 2 - Player Recommendations
As we get a few weeks into the season, you may have noticed a few changes to the Yahoo game upon which this blog was founded. The most obvious are the visual and usability tweaks that have improved the experience of searching for players and changing your team around. I applaud Yahoo for the changes they made but don't want to leave it at that. There are also additional, behind-the-scenes, changes that it would probably be good for you to know about. Since we know some people at Yahoo, we're here to help.
#1 - Points Up Faster: At the beginning of each new season it has been my impression that the Yahoo game got points up (and prices adjusted) pretty fast for the first few weeks. However, like buying a new computer, the improved performance was generally a temporary thing that eroded over the course of the season. A person who knows about these things tells me that the change is the real thing this time around. Why do you care? It will mean that you know how you did faster which is always nice. It will also mean that the Barn Door will close faster all season. For those of you unable to sit in front of a computer during matches and make changes as you find out the results, you'll be well served to at least take some pre-Barn Door risks on players you think you may want for the next week before heading off to whatever other obligations come before your fantasy team (as hard as it is to imagine that such things exist).
#2 - Players In Faster: Another by-product of the improved performance of the database/fantasy game interaction is an improvement in the speed of players being added to the system. As of this writing on Thursday, Mata is not yet in (he signed officially late yesterday/early today) but Nasri is officially listed as a City player. For those of us who have suffered through silly circumstances like Sessegnon not ever being listed last season or missing out on players like Kolarov for the first match of last season because they weren't added in a timely fashion. This will answer a long-standing gripe. For those new to the game, it will function as you'd probably expect and you'll be spared this particularly painful form of digital torture.
#3 - Pricing Changes - I'm not sure whether to be impressed (by the insight) or depressed (by the amount of time spent thinking about it when the world has real problems to solve) but fantasy players have gotten pretty smart about figuring out how prices will adjust, especially for players new to the league/game. The key finding in this was the "7 match rule" that saw new players increase dramatically in price after their 7th match played. Before the 7th match, their prices tended to stay inappropriately low and afterward, it tended to go overly high if the player had had even a few solid performances. In recognition of this and a general trend toward wild swings in pricing, Yahoo has adjusted the way prices are calculated. According to our sources, the "7 match rule" no longer exists and price changes should be a little less extreme for all players than in years past.
We tend to be harsh on Yahoo when we feel they aren't getting things right so we want to make sure that we're equally quick to praise them when they get things right and the changes made over this past summer fall firmly into the latter category. Thanks to all involved in making that happen at Yahoo and also for listening when we have suggestions for improvements.
OK, on to the player recommendations...
#1 - Points Up Faster: At the beginning of each new season it has been my impression that the Yahoo game got points up (and prices adjusted) pretty fast for the first few weeks. However, like buying a new computer, the improved performance was generally a temporary thing that eroded over the course of the season. A person who knows about these things tells me that the change is the real thing this time around. Why do you care? It will mean that you know how you did faster which is always nice. It will also mean that the Barn Door will close faster all season. For those of you unable to sit in front of a computer during matches and make changes as you find out the results, you'll be well served to at least take some pre-Barn Door risks on players you think you may want for the next week before heading off to whatever other obligations come before your fantasy team (as hard as it is to imagine that such things exist).
#2 - Players In Faster: Another by-product of the improved performance of the database/fantasy game interaction is an improvement in the speed of players being added to the system. As of this writing on Thursday, Mata is not yet in (he signed officially late yesterday/early today) but Nasri is officially listed as a City player. For those of us who have suffered through silly circumstances like Sessegnon not ever being listed last season or missing out on players like Kolarov for the first match of last season because they weren't added in a timely fashion. This will answer a long-standing gripe. For those new to the game, it will function as you'd probably expect and you'll be spared this particularly painful form of digital torture.
#3 - Pricing Changes - I'm not sure whether to be impressed (by the insight) or depressed (by the amount of time spent thinking about it when the world has real problems to solve) but fantasy players have gotten pretty smart about figuring out how prices will adjust, especially for players new to the league/game. The key finding in this was the "7 match rule" that saw new players increase dramatically in price after their 7th match played. Before the 7th match, their prices tended to stay inappropriately low and afterward, it tended to go overly high if the player had had even a few solid performances. In recognition of this and a general trend toward wild swings in pricing, Yahoo has adjusted the way prices are calculated. According to our sources, the "7 match rule" no longer exists and price changes should be a little less extreme for all players than in years past.
We tend to be harsh on Yahoo when we feel they aren't getting things right so we want to make sure that we're equally quick to praise them when they get things right and the changes made over this past summer fall firmly into the latter category. Thanks to all involved in making that happen at Yahoo and also for listening when we have suggestions for improvements.
OK, on to the player recommendations...
The Week Ahead: Part 1 - The Schedule
Talk about your all-time sigh-of-relief moment. I can't say I'm entirely out of the woods in my nervousness related to Arsenal and their direction. That said, the fact that they, you know, scored a couple goals and didn't have any players thrown out of the match was a nice step forward. Winning on the road in the Champions League, even the qualifying stages, isn't easy and the fact that it came after both Nasri and Cesc were gone provides some nice closure. That new addition Gervinho was integral to the critical goal was yet another positive sign that not EVERYTHING is going in the wrong direction. Gervinho looked good and the combination of he and Walcott will clearly cause problems for their opposition based on speed on both sides of the field. If one or both gets more comfortable with their end product then that's even better.
You can imagine a very strong Starting XI that includes Jack Wilshere replacing Frimpong/Rosicky. The issue continues to be depth. Targets for Arsenal in the transfer window can now be reassured that they will be moving to a team in the Champions League group stage. Will that be enough to get a big name like Eden Hazard? Hard to say. Regardless, it will be critical to find some cover at CB and CM. It might not be a bad idea to find another left back and another forward unless Bendtner will indeed be sticking around.
Only with some critical fortifications can Wenger and Arsenal ensure that their supporters don't go immediately from worrying about THIS YEAR'S Champions League to worrying about NEXT YEAR'S Champions League where Liverpool and Spurs will give them a run for their money even with the acquisitions suggested above.
You can imagine a very strong Starting XI that includes Jack Wilshere replacing Frimpong/Rosicky. The issue continues to be depth. Targets for Arsenal in the transfer window can now be reassured that they will be moving to a team in the Champions League group stage. Will that be enough to get a big name like Eden Hazard? Hard to say. Regardless, it will be critical to find some cover at CB and CM. It might not be a bad idea to find another left back and another forward unless Bendtner will indeed be sticking around.
Only with some critical fortifications can Wenger and Arsenal ensure that their supporters don't go immediately from worrying about THIS YEAR'S Champions League to worrying about NEXT YEAR'S Champions League where Liverpool and Spurs will give them a run for their money even with the acquisitions suggested above.
Injuries and Suspensions
Oh, how miserable it is to be an Arsenal supporter these days. Critical matches to start the season, two excellent players seemingly out the door, two questionable suspensions from the first match of the season, and now the typical injury-riddled squad adding to the misery. Here's the quick round up of the latest injury news heading into the weekend and the implication for fantasy owners:
The Week Ahead: Part 1
The Best Interests of the Game.
For all of the imperfections that have existed in the past and continue to exist in Major League Baseball, the governance of the game has embedded within it a clause that the commissioner can use to fill in when the rules as written just don't apply properly to the situation at hand.
There are two reasons I mention this in a column about the Premier League. First, baseball sensibly has an "out" clause that the Premier League clearly lacks to help facilitate the right thing being done. Second, baseball (and all American sports) rightly have appointed individuals (Commissioners) who are charged with overseeing their leagues, acting as figureheads/PR talking heads, and acting as the lightning rod for controversy when things go wrong. The controversy at St. James Park on the opening Saturday of the season underscored the lack of an individual in the driver's seat with sufficient latitude to ensure that the right thing happens.
If the Premier League had a single Commissioner who the public generally held accountable (and feared in any way for the ability to hold down what is generally a high-paying, high-profile job) then the end result of this past weekend's melee would have been entirely different. I could be talked into red cards for everyone involved (Song, Barton, and Gervinho). I could be talked into yellow cards for all involved. I could be talked into reds for Song and Barton and a yellow for Gervinho. What I and any public-facing Commissioner would never be talked into under the confines of American sports is letting a technicality like "we already awarded Barton a yellow card so we can't even review it and get it right" because that's the way our screwed up system works.
A Commissioner that is forced to meet regularly with reporters, go on sports talk radio, and watch his name crushed on social media would find a way to get it right, and fast. Apologies would be issued for the way things turned out. Slowly but surely, the tide of public opinion would force even the most traditional of traditionalists (you listening Mr. Selig) to do things like enlist video replay to get more things right.
Instead, the Premier League continues on with a Chairman, a Chief Executive, and a Board of Directors to oversee day-to-day operations. If ever there was a way to diffuse responsibility for things going wrong, this would be the way. A Google search for "Barton" and "Scudamore" (the Chief Executive of the Prem) yielded exactly 13 hits under the "news" tab. You have to try hard to find a search that yields only 13 hits. A similar search for "Artest" and "Stern" yielded 30x more hits associated with a particularly ugly incident in the National Basketball Association. Another similar search on "Selig" (MLB commissioner) and Dodgers (a financially troubled team where he had to step in) yielded even more than that.
My point is that with a diffused management structure at the league and even more ability to avoid responsibility by hiding behind the FA, UEFA, and FIFA there's almost no chance that the Premier League as currently constituted will ever be serious about making things better. It would be like expecting FIFA to not be corrupt or the NCAA to make decisions that are in the best interests of the fans or the players.
Sadly, unlike most of my rants, I don't really have a proposed solution here. The league has to WANT to change and make things better. The clubs have to decide that there's some risk to their financial health to not making the change. The way things are going with TV revenues, etc. that seems highly unlikely. We'll just have to suffer through poor decisions left un-reviewed, no video replays, and an absence of even modest improvements like referees using spray paint to keep walls from encroaching like they do in the US and Argentina.
For all of the imperfections that have existed in the past and continue to exist in Major League Baseball, the governance of the game has embedded within it a clause that the commissioner can use to fill in when the rules as written just don't apply properly to the situation at hand.
There are two reasons I mention this in a column about the Premier League. First, baseball sensibly has an "out" clause that the Premier League clearly lacks to help facilitate the right thing being done. Second, baseball (and all American sports) rightly have appointed individuals (Commissioners) who are charged with overseeing their leagues, acting as figureheads/PR talking heads, and acting as the lightning rod for controversy when things go wrong. The controversy at St. James Park on the opening Saturday of the season underscored the lack of an individual in the driver's seat with sufficient latitude to ensure that the right thing happens.
If the Premier League had a single Commissioner who the public generally held accountable (and feared in any way for the ability to hold down what is generally a high-paying, high-profile job) then the end result of this past weekend's melee would have been entirely different. I could be talked into red cards for everyone involved (Song, Barton, and Gervinho). I could be talked into yellow cards for all involved. I could be talked into reds for Song and Barton and a yellow for Gervinho. What I and any public-facing Commissioner would never be talked into under the confines of American sports is letting a technicality like "we already awarded Barton a yellow card so we can't even review it and get it right" because that's the way our screwed up system works.
A Commissioner that is forced to meet regularly with reporters, go on sports talk radio, and watch his name crushed on social media would find a way to get it right, and fast. Apologies would be issued for the way things turned out. Slowly but surely, the tide of public opinion would force even the most traditional of traditionalists (you listening Mr. Selig) to do things like enlist video replay to get more things right.
Instead, the Premier League continues on with a Chairman, a Chief Executive, and a Board of Directors to oversee day-to-day operations. If ever there was a way to diffuse responsibility for things going wrong, this would be the way. A Google search for "Barton" and "Scudamore" (the Chief Executive of the Prem) yielded exactly 13 hits under the "news" tab. You have to try hard to find a search that yields only 13 hits. A similar search for "Artest" and "Stern" yielded 30x more hits associated with a particularly ugly incident in the National Basketball Association. Another similar search on "Selig" (MLB commissioner) and Dodgers (a financially troubled team where he had to step in) yielded even more than that.
My point is that with a diffused management structure at the league and even more ability to avoid responsibility by hiding behind the FA, UEFA, and FIFA there's almost no chance that the Premier League as currently constituted will ever be serious about making things better. It would be like expecting FIFA to not be corrupt or the NCAA to make decisions that are in the best interests of the fans or the players.
Sadly, unlike most of my rants, I don't really have a proposed solution here. The league has to WANT to change and make things better. The clubs have to decide that there's some risk to their financial health to not making the change. The way things are going with TV revenues, etc. that seems highly unlikely. We'll just have to suffer through poor decisions left un-reviewed, no video replays, and an absence of even modest improvements like referees using spray paint to keep walls from encroaching like they do in the US and Argentina.
What We Learned: Week 1
With one match left to go tomorrow (Monday), the first thing we learned is that when your fantasy pundit spends the summer harping on the fact that you should spend your time, effort, and budget picking home players that we won't see a home win in week 1. I stick by my initial hypothesis that you should strongly favor players playing at home but this was certainly not great positive reinforcement early for those who might have thought I was off-base with my analysis. At the end of the season though, I'm pretty sure you'll be happy if you keep the faith with the home players.
In other news from the first weekend of Premier League (and fantasy) action:
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)