First XI - What We Learned During Week 7

This column is getting long enough in its own right so I'm not going to write much of a preamble this time around.  Before we get to it though, I'm going to solicit feedback on two aspects of the column.  I've added what I'm thinking will be regular fixtures under #1 and #2 .  I have been mixing fantasy and reality comments in this column thus far this season.  That isn't going to change but I want to make sure I'm doing enough fantasy stuff since that's generally why you're here reading.  The other thing I've added in at the end is related to my other sports interests.  Is it entirely self-indulgent, yes it is.  Should you care? You tell me, that's why we have a comments section.  I hope you like the new format additions.

The Barn Door Live - Week 7

The Week Ahead, Part 2 - Player Picks

I have to admit that my first experiences watching a Roberto Mancini-coached team was a good one.  It was in a pre-scandal Italy (at least the recent one).  Inter Milan were still a plucky 3rd or 4th best team fighting to keep up with Milan and Juve.  The thing that I remember enjoying about them is that you could see just about anything from them on any given weekend.  They could play the typical Italian grinding style and win 1-0, they could go up 3-0 and find a way to give away that lead for a thrilling conclusion or they could go down 3-0 and come all the way back to win 4-3.  It was a win of the latter type that I recall as my first meaningful recollection of Mancini.  It wasn't enough to get me to follow Serie A religiously but it was enough for me to pull for Inter.

I mention this because the same sort of pattern seems to be unfolding at Manchester City.  The budget is bigger.  The upside of the talent at his disposal is higher.  Still, there appear to be two common characteristics that bond his Inter teams with his City teams.  The first is their variance in mental discipline.  No matter what has happened in the matches and even the minutes leading up to a specific instant in time appears to be entirely irrelevant to predicting what will happen next.  Their first choice players will be playing poorly (like last weekend) and someone deep in the doghouse (Balotelli) or in a deep slump (Milner) score goals. You just never seem to know what is going to happen next. The week before it was looking great for the first 60 or 70 minutes and then collapsing and giving up a 2-0 lead on the road in the last 20 minutes rather than creating a 2 goal lead in the last 20 minutes.

The other thing that binds these two Mancini teams is the presence of some, shall we say, unique personalities.  This season's edition features Tevez's increasingly bizarre and petulant behavior, de Jong's no-holds-barred challenges (and occasional dirty play), Dzeko's seemingly from out of nowhere personality, and of course Balotelli-being-Balotelli.  For me, since I really have little for or against City historically, the combination of these two factors and Mancini's ability to manage a team to just about any outcome has made them a really fun story to follow this season.  May it long continue rather than evolving the way Chelsea did under similar financial circumstances.  It would be a shame if City became more ruthless but at the same time less interesting to watch.

OK, on to the player picks:

First XI - What We Learned in Week 6

Sometimes there's no substitute for a good old fashioned lesson/reminder about what not to do in picking your fantasy team.  The first lesson I (re)learned this past weekend is that Friday trading with no additional information will generally lead to you out-thinking yourself.

What do I mean? On Friday, without any news from Wenger, I got it in my head that Gibbs might not start and that I should move to Boyata as a "more stable" enabler pick at the back.  This despite watching the Rovers match last weekend in which Santos essentially handed Rovers the two goals they scored themselves by playing Yakubu onside (even if one of the two wasn't actually onside, he was playing unnecessarily close and made it easier for the linesman to make the mistake).  Regardless, I made the switch and more so than losing out on that many points (2.5 for Boyata vs. 6 for Gibbs) I lost a likely starter from ARS for most of the year at 2.something for an occasional starter from BOL for a similar price.  Not a wise move.

The other lesson I (re)learned was that you shouldn't try to get too cute.  The other move I made on Friday was that I initially decided that it would be a good idea to double down on CHE defenders.  I swapped Richards out and brought in Luiz thinking he would start given the modest opposition.  An email exchange with Jeremy (fortunately) convinced me that Luiz was probably not going to start.  For some reason, after making that determination I didn't go straight back to Richards but started over-thinking my choice and decided to go with Smalling.  Indefensible move really.  He's playing away to a solid team vs. Richards playing at home against a solid team.  I let the NdJ injury get into my head too much and it ended with zero points when Smalling was left out of the squad vs. the 8 that Richards got for his modest phantom points and a clean sheet.  The overall result was about 10 points that I got vs. 23 or so that I would have gotten if I'd stuck to my guns and followed the rules. 

The third thing I (re)learned was to listen to my own advice.  I called the Ramires performance but didn't pull the trigger much to my own chagrin.  

OK, enough of my bitching, on to the more important observations about Week 6 in the Premier League that apply to all of our teams (and occasionally the real world too).

The Barn Door Live - Week 5

First XI - What We Learned in Week 5

In theory when you're a journalist you don't root for teams and therefore all you're looking for is an angle, something interesting to write about that will get people to buy your newspaper, click on your link, or head to the Facebook page to make some pithy comments about your genius idiocy.  As much as we'd all like to believe that our journalists stick to this standard (because they tell us over and over that they do), people don't get into sports journalism because it is incredibly lucrative or because it is likely to get you a lot of acclaim with the opposite sex.  No, they get into it because they are huge sports fans who aren't athletic enough to play sports for a living and this is the most feasible way to earn a living being involved with a kids game while still being able to afford to eat.

One of the best things about the blogging revolution is that it has removed the necessity to keep up the illusion that those of us that write about the game don't also have personal feelings about the teams and players.  I try to remain as objective as I can when doing analysis for fantasy purposes because fantasy is a game of numbers and you'll only read what I have to write if my advice is helpful.  Favoring the teams and players I LIKE versus the ones who are likely to be productive will lead to people thinking my analysis sucks and turning to one or more of the other options available for their fantasy league preparation.  That said, in the spaces around the objective fantasy analysis, I am not shy about letting you know who I like and dislike, respect and don't respect, root for and root against, etc.

The reason I give you this preamble is that it has taken me a while to arrive at something I'm happy about writing this week because this weekend was a pretty depressing one for me as a fan.  It was the moment that I finally decided that Arsene Wenger is done.  I'll propose a potential remedy for their current ailments below but I have no sense that it will happen.  To heap general misery on top of the state of Arsenal and its impact on me is the fact that almost all of the meaningful storylines this past weekend were negative.  Here's the run down from I to XI...

The Barn Door Live

We're back!

The Week Ahead: Part 1 - The Schedule

With the Manchester teams continuing to dominate the standings - both real and fantasy points - we come upon the first real test of the season.  Chelsea arrives at Old Trafford as the first team not already eliminated from the title race to face either high-flying Manchester side.  I don't really believe that Chelsea are in the race for the championship but with the collection of raw talent on hand and the fact that we're early in the season means we can't entirely write the possibility off (like we can for Arsenal, Spurs, and Liverpool).  Additionally, the memory of the United/Chelsea match at the close of last season should also be fresh in the minds of fantasy managers as there weren't that many points to be had there.

The occasion of Manchester United vs. Chelsea brings us a major dilemma.  Do we assume that United will continue to plow ahead with their domination of their opponents? If we make that assumption then it is a strong move to keep the United players - DDG, Rooney, Chicharito, etc - who you may have at a discount.

The alternative is to assume that Chelsea will make things very difficult for United and regardless of the outcome, make fantasy points hard to come by.  If you make that assumption the question becomes "where do I spend the money I'd been plowing into ManYoo players?"

I wish there were some statistical technique that I had unearthed to give you some hidden insight into the answer to the dilemma posed above.  Sadly, I don't have anything like that handy and if I did, I'd be gambling on my inside information rather than writing about it. What I will push forward are a few thoughts:

1) United are at home and over the past four seasons they are 3-1 against Chelsea at Old Trafford (when Chelsea were arguably more talented) with two clean sheets.  The last 2 matches have been 2-1 affairs with one going in each direction.

2) I like Chelsea's array of talent a lot more now with Mata, Sturridge, and Lukaku attacking, Luiz at the back, and AVB seemingly willing to tell Torres to have a seat until he starts doing his job and scoring goals.  The flipside of that statement is that the roster still feels disjointed with an odd mix of fading talents (JT, Lamps, Drogs, Elk) and rising stars (the group above and maybe Ramires if you're feeling charitable about his potential and athletic skills).  What Chelsea still lack is a core of exceptional players at the peak of their powers to bring together the old and the new.  FloMal, Mikel, Alex, Ivanovic, and Torres (plus Essien) were supposed to be those guys and while only Torres has been abjectly horrible none of the others among the healthy of that group have been exceptional either.  FloMal has had some exceptional stretches and Ivanovic has had some stretches of well-above-average-ness but that's about it.  More than enough on most days but not against the United buzzsaw.

3) By contrast to the picture of Chelsea painted above, United have a great combination of young (DDG, Smalling, Jones, Anderson, Cleverly, Welbeck, the twins, and Chicharito), old (mostly just Giggs and Rio now that GNev and Scholes have retired), and exceptional players in their primes (Rooney, AY, Vidic, Nani, and Evra).  When playing at home, it is going to be hard to overcome that combination.

Overall, my verdict (in the tradition of this year's version of this column) is that I'd favor United's attackers to do very well in this match-up but I'm not as bullish on their defenders and DDG being able to hold a clean sheet.  Verdict: Advantage United Attackers.

With my extended United vs. Chelsea preview out of the way, here are some notes on the other notable match-ups for the coming week:

Eleven Things We Learned: Week 4

Never let it be said that I'm not happy to bow to the will of the audience.  You asked for 11 things that we learned instead of 10 and, never one to turn down the opportunity to write more rather than less, I'm in.  I have to admit that I was on the road returning from vacation all day on Saturday.  I followed the matches online as they happened, I watched the replay of the Arsenal match, and I saw most of both Sunday matches.  Not as much as I'd like to have see as the basis for this column but enough, when combined with highlights and fantasy results, to make for a strong column (or so I'd like to think).

Injuries and Suspensions

• Arsenal v Swansea
• Everton v Aston Villa
• Man City v Wigan
• Stoke v Liverpool
• Sunderland v Chelsea
• Wolves v Tottenham
• Bolton v Man Utd
• Norwich v West Brom
• Fulham v Blackburn

Here's a summary of the news that can be found behind the links above:

The Week Ahead, Part 2 - Player Picks

Unfortunately, my schedule and a general lack of a reliable internet connection prevented me from posting as much as I'd have liked about the transfer window.  In an effort to at least summarize some thoughts related to fantasy before the matches start up I'll do a quick version here before we get to this week's player picks.

Villa - As Spurs play revolving Right Backs with Villa Kyle Walker (and then Luke Young) head out and Alan Hutton makes his way in as the presumed starting right back.  For those hoping that Eric Lichaj (and his rock bottom price) would get a start you will have no such luck.  At 7.60, Hutton is his typical self.  Reasonably priced for now when he is at home against modest competition.  He'll occasionally have a solid attacking match but nothing you should get too excited about. 

Rovers - I really like the move for Scott Dann and there are other teams (Spurs, Arsenal, etc.) who would have done well to make that same move as cover for injury-plagued center back corps. From a fantasy standpoint, not much to see here as Dann won't likely be a definite starter. 

Bolton - Speaking of cut-priced defenders, Bolton got a nice one in Boyata who should get a long run of matches for a price of 2.05.  I wouldn't go in on him at home against United this coming weekend but the Barn Door holds some promise of a home match with Norwich the following week.  Other moves that deserve watching from a fantasy standpoint are the arrivals of Kakuta (we'll see how he fits in with Eagles and MPet) and N'gog (also likely to start out as a reserve).  I don't see either man going straight into the squad but there is at least SOME potential there. 

Everton - I have to admit that I haven't watched much Spanish soccer recently and even if I had, I'm not sure I'd have seen much of Royston Drenthe.  At one point he played well enough for Real to buy him but he's been mostly forgotten since then.  Whether he still has anything to offer remains to be seen.  I know even less of Denis Stracqualursi but you have to think he'll get a good run of playing time with Beckford and Yakubu sold off and Saha always a risk to be hurt (seriously, he could have been hurt while I was writing this paragraph).  The real winner here might be young Ross Barkley who will likely get a chance to play with Arteta gone from the Everton midfield.  That one really looks like he'll be worth watching. 

Fulham - I'm liking this Fulham team more and more with two solid acquisitions in Grygera and Ruiz.  Grygera will likely end up as an inexpensive starting right back option which is always nice to have around.  Ruiz could be anything from the next Alvarez, Mutu, Suarez to van Nistelrooy.  My guess is that he ends up injecting some pace into the Fulham attack to give them additional looks.  Hard to know whether he'll start regularly but I'll certainly be keeping tabs to find out on both.  There may be some downside here for Zamora/Dembele/Dempsey.  

NUFC - Davide Santon doesn't sound terribly Italian but at one point he was supposed to be the next big thing in Italian defenders.  If regular playing time can help him capture even some of that back then this is a great move for NUFC.  The question is whether RTay moves up to play left midfield (which would be good for him) or whether he goes to the bench in favor of Gutierrez.  If RTay goes to the bench then there may be some upside for Cabaye who will likely get more kicks.  Definitely worth watching to see how this works out.

QPR - Welcome to the club the poor man's version of the Premier League starter kit.  Joey Barton, SWP, Anton Ferdinand, and Luke Young all bring solid campaigners who are likely paid much more than they are worth.  Club finances aside though, they should be upgrades over what QPR had.  Barton, SWP and Taarabt could combine to make a very solid attacking midfield trio.  The question that we'll all need to be watching is who will be taking kicks between Taarabt and Barton and how much SWP has left in the tank.  SWP, due to his low price, 4.39, could be particularly interesting if he finds some of his old form.

Stoke - For me, Crouch is the only marginally interesting signing here and I'm still not sure he starts.  I assume Kenwyne Jones has the starting role as a target forward and regardless of Tony Pulis' love for fielding a basketball team rather than a soccer team, the idea of a Jones/Crouch partnership just feels awkward.

Sunderland - As bad an idea as Crouch to Stoke seems, I'm very optimistic about Bendtner to Sunderland.  He's exactly the kind of foil they need for Gyan up top.  I also think he'll be very good despite the fact he seems like a bit of a d!ck of a person.  That he comes in at a price of 5.55 doesn't hurt either.

OK, that was a long build-up so now we'll get to the player recommendations:

After the Window: Arsenal

Volumes and volumes have been written about Arsenal and their travails from February of 2011 through the close of the transfer window.  Since we're pretty sure you've read quite enough about "contending in 4 competitions to nothing in the blink of an eye" and "Nasri/Cesc/Clichy out" and "will anyone arrive?" that we won't cover that ground again.  Instead, we'll spend some time focusing on what we have learned from the first three matches of the season plus the final touches from the transfer window.

10 Things We Learned: Week 3

What an incredible weekend. It started with a forward who scored one goal all of last season scoring a brace and ended with three of the more remarkable fantasy performances we are likely to see all season - one from a forward who himself only scored twice in the league last season (admittedly in limited opportunity over only 15 matches).

[NOTE: Yup, I'm still tweaking the format for this Monday/Matchweek Wrap-up column. If you have any suggestions, I'm happy to hear them. The content is the content but I'm trying to come up with a nice wrapper/theme to pull it all together]

The Barn Door Live: Week 3

Sorry, didn't realize that the match started a little earlier today

The Week Ahead: Part 2 - Player Recommendations

As we get a few weeks into the season, you may have noticed a few changes to the Yahoo game upon which this blog was founded.  The most obvious are the visual and usability tweaks that have improved the experience of searching for players and changing your team around.  I applaud Yahoo for the changes they made but don't want to leave it at that.  There are also additional, behind-the-scenes, changes that it would probably be good for you to know about.  Since we know some people at Yahoo, we're here to help.

#1 - Points Up Faster: At the beginning of each new season it has been my impression that the Yahoo game got points up (and prices adjusted) pretty fast for the first few weeks. However, like buying a new computer, the improved performance was generally a temporary thing that eroded over the course of the season.  A person who knows about these things tells me that the change is the real thing this time around.  Why do you care? It will mean that you know how you did faster which is always nice.  It will also mean that the Barn Door will close faster all season.  For those of you unable to sit in front of a computer during matches and make changes as you find out the results, you'll be well served to at least take some pre-Barn Door risks on players you think you may want for the next week before heading off to whatever other obligations come before your fantasy team (as hard as it is to imagine that such things exist).

#2 - Players In Faster: Another by-product of the improved performance of the database/fantasy game interaction is an improvement in the speed of players being added to the system.  As of this writing on Thursday, Mata is not yet in (he signed officially late yesterday/early today) but Nasri is officially listed as a City player.  For those of us who have suffered through silly circumstances like Sessegnon not ever being listed last season or missing out on players like Kolarov for the first match of last season because they weren't added in a timely fashion.  This will answer a long-standing gripe.  For those new to the game, it will function as you'd probably expect and you'll be spared this particularly painful form of digital torture.

#3 - Pricing Changes - I'm not sure whether to be impressed (by the insight) or depressed (by the amount of time spent thinking about it when the world has real problems to solve) but fantasy players have gotten pretty smart about figuring out how prices will adjust, especially for players new to the league/game. The key finding in this was the "7 match rule" that saw new players increase dramatically in price after their 7th match played.  Before the 7th match, their prices tended to stay inappropriately low and afterward, it tended to go overly high if the player had had even a few solid performances.  In recognition of this and a general trend toward wild swings in pricing, Yahoo has adjusted the way prices are calculated. According to our sources, the "7 match rule" no longer exists and price changes should be a little less extreme for all players than in years past.

We tend to be harsh on Yahoo when we feel they aren't getting things right so we want to make sure that we're equally quick to praise them when they get things right and the changes made over this past summer fall firmly into the latter category.  Thanks to all involved in making that happen at Yahoo and also for listening when we have suggestions for improvements.

OK, on to the player recommendations...

The Week Ahead: Part 1 - The Schedule

Talk about your all-time sigh-of-relief moment.  I can't say I'm entirely out of the woods in my nervousness related to Arsenal and their direction.  That said, the fact that they, you know, scored a couple goals and didn't have any players thrown out of the match was a nice step forward.  Winning on the road in the Champions League, even the qualifying stages, isn't easy and the fact that it came after both Nasri and Cesc were gone provides some nice closure.  That new addition Gervinho was integral to the critical goal was yet another positive sign that not EVERYTHING is going in the wrong direction.  Gervinho looked good and the combination of he and Walcott will clearly cause problems for their opposition based on speed on both sides of the field.  If one or both gets more comfortable with their end product then that's even better.

You can imagine a very strong Starting XI that includes Jack Wilshere replacing Frimpong/Rosicky.  The issue continues to be depth.  Targets for Arsenal in the transfer window can now be reassured that they will be moving to a team in the Champions League group stage.  Will that be enough to get a big name like Eden Hazard? Hard to say.  Regardless, it will be critical to find some cover at CB and CM.  It might not be a bad idea to find another left back and another forward unless Bendtner will indeed be sticking around.

Only with some critical fortifications can Wenger and Arsenal ensure that their supporters don't go immediately from worrying about THIS YEAR'S Champions League to worrying about NEXT YEAR'S Champions League where Liverpool and Spurs will give them a run for their money even with the acquisitions suggested above.

Injuries and Suspensions

Oh, how miserable it is to be an Arsenal supporter these days.  Critical matches to start the season, two excellent players seemingly out the door, two questionable suspensions from the first match of the season, and now the typical injury-riddled squad adding to the misery.  Here's the quick round up of the latest injury news heading into the weekend and the implication for fantasy owners:

Scheduled Maintenance

UPDATE: The Y!FF game is back online.

All of a sudden, Y! greeting me with this.



Better than the experience over the weekend with the official Premier League game, but still lousy timing.  Here's the official game's apology and list of make-rights.  It's impressive.  Y!, please note that this is how to handle the situation.  Free does not excuse a lack of communication with your users any longer.

What We Learned: Week 1

With one match left to go tomorrow (Monday), the first thing we learned is that when your fantasy pundit spends the summer harping on the fact that you should spend your time, effort, and budget picking home players that we won't see a home win in week 1.  I stick by my initial hypothesis that you should strongly favor players playing at home but this was certainly not great positive reinforcement early for those who might have thought I was off-base with my analysis.  At the end of the season though, I'm pretty sure you'll be happy if you keep the faith with the home players.

In other news from the first weekend of Premier League (and fantasy) action:

Y!AM's Player Picks

http://yahoofantasyfootballuk.blogspot.com/2011/08/week-1-player-picks.html

If you'd like some additional insight over and above The Week Ahead.  Our Never Manage Alone partner the Yahoo! Assistant Manager has posted his weekly Player Picks column.

Enjoy!