What I'm reading - October 7, 2015

View image | gettyimages.com

I do love this photo.

First, the fantasy tips:

Premier League Power Rankings: 5 October

Fantasy Premier League Gw9 Tips – The Early Bandwagons And Sinking Ships

FPL Scout Extra: Chips should be held despite Aguero heroics


Hopefully, you don't have any of these players in your fantasy side:

The Premier League's underperforming (but undropped) players


Of course there's a lot more about Jurgen Klopp to Liverpool. Today's trend is pragmatic, leaning towards pessimistic. Yes, he's a great manager, but what about the players and what about the boardroom?

New approach needs to follow new manager at Liverpool

Assessing Liverpool's Klopp Coup

What Jurgen Klopp can do with the players he inherits at Liverpool




Finally, ESPN FC has an interesting, side-by-side look at the Milan clubs.

Roberto Mancini has rebuilt Inter into a throwback side all about athleticism

AC Milan are in crisis again despite summer transfers and a new coach

I'm intrigued by the notion of Inter "zigging" when others are all "zagging". Are we seeing a return of the colossus midfielder? The Patrick Viera, Roy Keane type? Arturo Vidal... Nemanja Matic... Paul Pogba... Blaise Matuidi... Moussa Sissoko...

Wow, the French are stocked in the middle of the park! Throw in Yohan Cabaye and Morgan Schneiderlin for good measure and you're looking at a collection of players that would be the envy of any manager - international or club.

Two More Private Leagues

I'm not sure if there are any spaces still open but two more private leagues have been posted.  Here's the info.

YFF Blog League 11
Group ID#: 6517
Password: footy

YFF Blog League 12
Group ID#: 6518
Password: blog

Cheers - Neal 

Scouting Ahead

You may be wondering what I've been up to since the Premier League season ended a couple of weeks back.  Jeremy has been keeping the blog pressing forward with updates from the player and managerial transfer market while my fingers have taken a much needed break from writing long form editorials 3 or 4 times per week.  That isn't to say that I haven't been paying any attention at all to things related to the Premier League or fantasy.  In fact, I've had the opportunity to watch some really good players (many of them live) since last I wrote and now that I'm back from my latest trip, I'll fill you all in on what I've seen and how it may apply to next season and beyond.

The Waiting for Fantasy Points

... is the hardest part.



C'mon Yahoo!UK. Get it in gear!

The Week Ahead - Matchweek 35

It took a while but good things finally happened for (most) fantasy managers who went with two-gamers over the stalwarts from places like Chelsea and Arsenal who were still on their roster from a week ago. There were certainly pitfalls with Zamora, SEB, and eventually Eth being limited by injury (I had all three). Despite those pitfalls some combination of the highly regarded two-gamers - Sturridge, Dempsey, KJones, Pennant, Schwarzer, Begovic, Hangeland, Shawcross, etc - won the day. Even with almost no contribution from the three injured players I ended the week over 100 which is pretty solid when compared with the the one-game alternatives (unless you knew Maxi was going to get a hat trick).

I guess my point is that if you play it smart and limit yourself to guys who at least have a chance to be solid fantasy contributors in any individual match, you're likely to be happy to have those guys for two matches over more talented players over one match. Occasionally it doesn't work out (see the Birmingham disaster of a month or so ago) but much more often than not it will.

Was it sweating bullets on Saturday evening when it was clear that the first round of matches was all but useless? Definitely. Do I feel a lot better now that the second set of matches has been played and it turned out much better? Even more so.

Just something to keep in mind as you look forward to next week when again, there will be a limited number of teams (this time two) who will play two matches. The good news is that the teams are better - Manchester City and Spurs. The bad news is that they play each other in what might be the most unpredictable pairing in the league right now. Still, my inclination is to start thinking about my two-game strategy now rather than thinking that I might want to ignore the two-game thing entirely.

The Week Ahead - Matchweek 33

Interesting reaction to the post on Charlie Adam.  I saw a lot of support for Michael Carrick from people who wanted to claim that because he has won titles and started lots of matches that he's an excellent player.  The second most frequent source of criticism was that I was letting my pro-Arsenal bias show through in the type of midfielders I tend to prefer.  I would like to dispute both notions.  And clarify my comments about Carrick and Adam.

First, on Carrick.  Please check your facts - he hasn't started more than 24 matches in the league for United since 2006-07, his first year with the club.  He has played 19 matches for them this season. He has been the definition of a squad player.  He doesn't have any single outstanding skill.  His passing is above average but not exceptional.  He doesn't score.  He doesn't tackle particularly well.  He isn't fleet of foot.  He isn't seen as the organizer of the defense.  About once per season he takes an exceptional shot from long range.  He is a squad player, no more.  He is fortunate to be a squad player on an excellent team.

Now, lest we forget, he was purchased for £18 Million.  If you bought Carrick for say £5 Million and got a squad player who can start 20-odd matches then that's some good business.  If you pay £18 Million you're looking for someone you expect to start just about every match and make a noticeable contribution more than once in a blue moon. 

This is the root of the comparison to Charlie Adam.  I don't think Adam or Carrick would be bad players for any of the bigger teams that I listed.  What I said was that I thought he'd be a disappointment for any of those teams given the amount of money that they would undoubtedly have to pay for him.  The exceptional things that he does for Blackpool are already being done by other people at United, Liverpool, and Spurs.

Could Adam make the same contribution that Carrick has made to United? Sure.  Is that worth £18 Million (or even the more likely fee of around £12 Million)? I wouldn't think so.  I'd think any of the clubs I mentioned would be far better served going with other options - specifically options who price won't be artificially inflated by results that they are never going to see.

I appreciate that it is easy to make the connection between my support of Arsenal and any criticism I make of players who play for other teams - especially United or Spurs - but the mere fact of my support for Arsenal doesn't mean that it drives everything that I write.  I'd bet that if you got an honest answer from Sir Alex that he'd be disappointed in the results of his purchase of Carrick.  Not because Carrick doesn't have a role to play but because he paid WAY too much money to get him.

The Week Ahead - Slacker Edition

I have to admit it, I'm having a lot of trouble getting motivated to focus on fantasy over the last couple of weeks. Maybe it is the fact that we've been doing this for 8 months. Maybe it is the hangover from Arsenal crashing out of contention on all four fronts. Maybe it is related to the warmer weather combined with baseball and MLS starting up and still holding so much promise. I'm guessing its mostly the Arsenal thing with a small sprinkle of the other factors as well.

Like most of the managers around the league, the end of this season has me thinking about next season and what can be done to improve what we do and how we enjoy the fantasy games available to us.

The BEST option would be to create our own fantasy game that improves on the experiences currently offered by the "big two" (PremierLeague.com and Yahoo! UK). Unfortunately, that best option is expensive and time consuming so unless there's someone out there with money to spend that believes that there is a market for a better fantasy Premier League experience, we'll have to move on to the next best thing.

The problem is that I'm not sure what the "next best thing" might be. The first thing that springs to my mind is a competition more like American-style fantasy football where those who are interested join a league, pay an entry fee with the winners (maybe the "top four") winning some percentage of the pot.

My intuition tells me that there is a need for both long term prizes like the one suggested above and short term prizes that will keep people motivated as the season wears on. As an example, in our private league, I already know I'm not going to finish above third unless one or both of the top two leave a player out of the line-up for the next four weeks. There is some pride on the line since I'm currently in fourth and would like to beat Jeremy out for third but with no tangible outcome associated with that other than a few boasting IMs over the summer that really isn't enough motivation.

Here is my thought. Since I clearly don't have the answer here, I'd like to hear from our readers. Is there interest in some sort of a premium league that would take your performance from the Yahoo game and translate it into another competition? If so, what ideas do you have for the sort of competition that would keep the fun going throughout the entire season?

I have one idea that I'll throw out there that might provide a different experience. Rather than having a "Cup" competition (AM, PremierLeague.com, and others already do that) or a private group where we exactly follow the scoring system of the overall game (EPLTalk.com and others do that). Maybe we could put teams in to "leagues" and play schedules within those individual leagues. The first few teams in each league would win prize money. It wouldn't entirely eliminate the problem of teams being out of the running for prizes toward the end of the season but it would likely increase the probability of more teams staying in the race longer.

So, what do you think? Do you like that idea? Would you participate? Would you contribute an entry fee to be involved? If not that specific idea, what else would be of interest. I'm very much open to ideas to increase our collective enjoyment of what we're spending our leisure time on.

The Week Ahead - Finally We're Back Edition

As Jeremy mentioned, this month has been a bit of a challenge when it comes to getting our heads back into the Premier League. I appreciate the fact that internationals need to happen and cup competitions need to be wrapped up (although as an Arsenal fan, I could have done without those this season - yup, still bitter). Still, do they need to disrupt the Premier League season at such a critical time in the calendar?

Why not now? Spring is springing and there are at least some times when we might want to be outdoors. In the States, Major League Baseball is starting (today in fact), college basketball is all-encompassing for a few weeks, and for those of us inclined toward soccer MLS is starting up. Elsewhere in the world the Cricket World Cup is also going on which certainly has potential Premier League fans in places like India, South Africa, and Australia pretty engrossed (good luck to India in the finals on Saturday).

The bottom line is that there is so much going on that distracts us from the season. I have to admit that if you'd asked me yesterday I couldn't have told you with any fidelity who I had on my roster for either the Yahoo! or Premier League games. With a season so long I have to think that letting the audience, especially those outside the UK, turn their focus elsewhere for almost an entire month has to be a bad idea. Especially if the month is March. The Premier League would do well to lobby to have the same sort of break happen in February instead because there's nothing else going on then to distract the audience. Just a thought before diving into the recommendations.

The Barn Door Live - March Madness Edition

The (Quick) Week Ahead

No real time for a big rant this weekend. I know you're all disappointed to have 10 to 15 minutes of your Friday back but it can't be helped.  Between a lot going on at work and yesterday being one of the great days of the year in American sports (St. Patrick's Day/First Day of College Basketball Tournament/One of the first warm days of the year) there was no excuse but to be out enjoying it.  With that, I'll take you directly to what you need to know for the weekend ahead.

The Week Ahead

Let the mediocrity continue.  That’s what I took away from today’s twin announcements that Darren Fletcher and Michael Carrick have signed new long term contracts with Manchester United.  I’m sure some of you who have been following this space for a while will write these comments off to the sour grapes of a Gooner still stinging from the Carling Cup fiasco but I assure you, there is more thought behind what I say/type than that.

First, let me assure you, my primary intention isn’t to take cheap shots at Fletcher and Carrick.  I’m sure I could overstate the case and get the United supporters in the crowd riled up enough to fill the comments thread to overflowing with insults to my intelligence and/or the legitimacy of my position as a commentator on things Premier League-related.  Most of the time, however, I try to refrain from that sort of sensationalism in favor of trying to look a little deeper and interpret what I see going on in the league.

In this case, the negative signs that I see in the re-signings of these two players who I think we’ll all admit are limited on their best days is that the financial issues at Old Trafford are set to continue.  United certainly don’t lack for bodies that are best suited for playing in midfield.  They have Scholes, Giggs, Nani, Valencia, Park, Anderson, Gibson, Welbeck, Cleverley, and theoretically Hargreaves in addition to Fletcher and Carrick.  That’s a lot of bodies.  The problem is that, Nani aside, there isn’t a lot of quality.  Assuming that SAF isn’t ready to give up on the kids – Anderson, Gibson, Welbeck, and Cleverley – we can be fairly assured that nearly the entire group above will be back next season.  That is important because it implies that SAF is going to try to make due with quantity over quality again. 

Those of you who support United – as well as those who like to pick a good verbal fight – may point out that the quantity over quality thing has been working out fairly well for United this season so far.  They do still sit in first despite the loss to Chelsea last Sunday don’t they?  I can’t argue that.  What I can suggest is that this is an unusual year in that the points haul necessary to win the championship is likely to be about 10 points lower than it usually is.  If either United or Arsenal make it to 80 points, it will represent a reasonable stretch run.  Compare that to years past when the winner walked away with a point total in the high 80s or low 90s. 

If you believe that there is a “new normal” with more parity in the league and lower point totals are going to do the job for the foreseeable future then maybe United’s strategy can still keep them serious contenders.  If, on the other hand, you suspect like I do that one or more of the other contenders – most likely Chelsea or City on the backs of their wealth – will keep spending until they get their mix of high-priced players right then you have to suspect that United’s strategy isn’t going to get it done in the seasons to come.  They NEED another exceptional midfielder – preferably of the holding variety – in much the same way that Arsenal have obviously need an exceptional CB/Keeper over the last few summers.  If these signings are a hint that United – due to stubbornness or lack of ability to spend – are going to “pull a Wenger” and try to substitute numbers and youth for difference-makers then I suspect that we’re going to be seeing a lot more of those green and yellow scarves in the stands in the upcoming seasons.

On to the upcoming week in fantasy:

Mini-First Impressions

You couldn't swing a virtual dead cat on Twitter today/this evening without running into a comment about how great it was that the Chelsea/ManYoo match lived up to the hype.  And for once, the Twitterati were right, it was a heck of a match.  It had some exceptional goals from Rooney and Luiz.  It had controversy in the form of Luiz's foul on Rooney. And a huge talking point for the comments sections and forums in the form of the lack of Luiz Red Card as compared to the lack of the same for Rooney against Wigan.  Most importantly, it means that the title race is really back on.  Here are some additional thoughts from one thoroughly entertained blogger:

The Week Ahead - Carling Cup Championship Edition

Memory is a funny thing.  At its best it allows us to relive fond memories of friends, events, and times gone by as we sip our favorite adult beverages and look out at the ocean or sunset or something similarly suitable for recalling such things.  At its worst, it fools us into thinking that things are still the way they were when an impression was formed.  What do I mean?

At its best, memory allows Liverpool fans to remember fondly the days when they were a dominant force in English football which probably helps them cope with the fact that this hasn't actually true for a number of years.  That's what brand, tradition and a lifetime of memories (fueled by highlights packages, sports radio, and stories from your elders) can do on the upside.

At its worst, memory causes fantasy managers to get suckered into wasting roster spots on fading forces like Giggs and Scholes because they see "ManYoo playing twice" and remember the days not so long ago when both were among the best players in the Premier League.  Then they see what appear to be relatively inexpensive prices (at least compared to years past) for the two and think - how could it go wrong?

How it could go wrong is pretty simple:

• Giggs - He has only started 17 matches total in all competitions this season and only twice in that time has he started two in a span of less than seven days - of those two times only once did he complete both matches.  With two goals and four assists to show for his Premier League exploits this season, any realistic hope of an exceptional fantasy performance rests more on fond memories than any empirical analysis.
• Scholes - He has started the same 17 total matches in all competitions and one ups Giggs on the number of "back-to-back" matches he's started (3) and played the full 90 in (2).  Still with yellow cards (8) doubling his combined total of goals (1) and assists (3) you have to wonder why you'd bother at any price.

If you're thinking of spending the 10+ on Giggs then you should probably find a way to add an extra defender to your line-up and move up to 13 and buy Vidic who is as close to guaranteed to start both matches and has a much higher points/match average.  The only way I'll sanction the Scholes purchase is if it is done entirely to afford other players who WILL do something useful for you (he IS coming in at a Carew-like 2.92).

I know I usually wait to talk about specific players but I went straight from the comments section of one of Jeremy's posts to this and I felt that it couldn't be ignored.  Now back to your regularly scheduled fantasy analysis.

First Impressions and Second Thoughts - Manchester Derby Weekend

Nani's Reaction Upon Reading Our Review Below

Before we get to the specifics related to the Premier League action on the field.  I'm going to start out with a random thought that I had over the weekend.  As these soccer-related thoughts usually do, it ended up being an SMS conversation with Jeremy which was interesting enough that we both thought that it was worth using as the opening for a column.  Then, when I saw that Ronaldo (the Brazilian one) was set to announce his retirement from professional football tomorrow, I knew it was Karma telling me that I had found the right opener for First Impressions.  What was the thought?

What happened to the Brazilians? I watched the International Friendly between Brazil and France this past week and it got my brain to thinking (yes, it happens from time to time) - how is it that there are no Brazilian superstars?  There are lots of very, very good Brazilian players in the game right now and even some who might be considered among the very best at their positions in the world.  That said, there isn't a Brazilian player who demands you say "WOW" as a result of his performances.  On the eve of Ronaldo's retirement, we are left wondering who the heir to the recent run of attacking superstars - Romario, Ronaldo, and Ronaldinho might be.

If you start listing the world's best attacking players you have to go a long way before you'd get to a Brazilian based on performance (as opposed to reputation).  The list of the best attackers has to start with Messi and that other Ronaldo fellow and then you start talking about Sneijder, Drogba, Ibra, Xavi, Iniesta, and others before you'd get to the first Brazilian on your list.  So what happened? Kaka was supposed to be the headliner of his generation but he's been pretty invisible for about 18 months now.  Robinho was supposed to be the "next Henry" combining pace, shooting, passing, and dribbling ability but he's been through just about every big club in Europe and no one really seems to want him.  Pato was supposed to be the "next big thing" after those two but his last two seasons have been derailed.  His strike rate for Milan has been very strong but he's only played a total of 35 league matches across the two seasons.  Not exactly the stuff of legends.

Oddly, the only place that Brazilians can claim to be at the absolute top of their professions is in the back.  Alves and Maicon are both exceptional players. That said, it isn't often that an outside defender can really be considered a superstar.  Roberto Carlos was the exception to this rule but neither Alves nor Maicon are up to that standard.  There are also very good Brazilian central defenders but again, you wouldn't say that there are any absolute superstars among them.  Very, very good? Definitely, but you wouldn't necessarily pick any Brazilian defender over Vidic if you were starting a team from scratch.

So what happened? Is it just one of those things?  A slight downward trend that will be remedied in a couple of years when the "next big thing" comes along?  Is it that the rest of the world - most notably Africa - are catching up to the Brazilians and making the difference between the best Brazilians and the best of the rest not seem so big? I can't claim to have an answer but as I watched Sandro try to adapt to life in the Prem and added to that the fact that he was playing for his country in mid-week, I could help but think about the fact that this isn't the Brazil of the last 25 or 30 years.  Any thoughts from you guys on why?

OK, with that international football aside out of the way, here are some observations on the weekend that was in the Prem:

The Barn Door Live - Manchester Derby Edition

Barn Door Watch: A Quick Look Ahead

I'm going to try to bring back the BD watch in a modified format.  Here is what I'll be thinking about as soon as line-ups lock in for the current match-week:

• RSC is healthy? - how do he and Rovers look?  They're @AST next which isn't great but it isn't horrible either.
• Carling Cup Final Impact - TOT/ARS and CHE/BRM have both been postponed for the next match week due to the ARS/BRM Carling Cup Final.  They have not yet been re-scheduled.  This makes TOT, ARS, and BRM idle for the purposes of fantasy next match week.  It makes Chelsea one-gamers. 
• ManYoo Two Matches - Granted the second one is @CHE but with the first one being @WIG it seems like you'll want to shift resources from BRM/ARS/TOT to MAN.  Rooney, Berbs, Nani, and maybe Smalling if the Rio and Evans injuries persist.
• Citeh Second - If you're not convinced by United's two matches then Citeh (home against Fulham) are probably the next best bet from match-up standpoint. Tevez, Silva, and maybe one of the defenders are the highlights.
• Luiz Watch - Assuming he's going to be a great addition for the balance of the season, does he do enough on Saturday to force you to BD him for the next match week or can you wait until after the ManYoo match? 
• Liverpool Third - Liverpool travel to WHU which represents the third best match-up advantage of the next match week for my money.  Meireles Suarez, Kelly and Reina are worth looking at.

There will surely be more BD candidates as the matches unfold but hopefully this will help you organize your thoughts before the chaos starts up.

Cheers - Neal

The Week Ahead - Manchester Derby Edition

Funny, I've only made the commitment to tweeting in the last 24 hours but already I feel more connected to people.  Maybe it has to do with the fact that I gained a lot of Twitter followers (and thank you to everyone who decided to follow me @nealjthurman) while I was sleeping last night while our Facebook following has slowed to a small steady growth.  Don't get me wrong, steady growth toward 3000 "Likes" is great but tripling your number of followers FEELS like a more significant accomplishment even if the number isn't that impressive.  In any event, for those who haven't embraced the Twitter, you should give it a try.

Moving in a completely non-sequential manner, I have two follow-up thoughts to the Deloitte Money Table posts from yesterday.  The first is that those leaving comments related to profitability are correct.  Revenue is only a part of the equation.  I'm guessing that part of the issue for Deloitte is that due to varying ownership structures and the sporadic availability of "bottom line" data I'd guess that a real accounting of profitability of all clubs would be more difficult than just compiling revenue figures.  I may be wrong but it certainly seems that way.  The public companies must of course disclose their profitability but I'm not sure there's any obligation for the Glazers or Abramovic or any other private group to disclose their profits.  Revenues are easier to get at since most of those figures are available from other sources if the clubs don't cooperate.  In any event, I'd enjoy the opportunity to get profitability numbers as well (although there's little doubt who would sit atop that table).

My second thought is an ironic one.  The lagging reputations of German clubs, especially vs. the big Italian clubs.  Germany has more people, a much stronger economy, and I'm not aware that they support a culture of corruption and match-fixing.  That said, outside of Bayern Munich, you'd be hard-pressed to guess which German club might finish second in revenue in a given season and the movement - two clubs out of the Top 20 and two new ones in - seem to indicate that there is little consistency.  The Deloitte report mentions that the pay TV market in Germany isn't terribly mature compared to the other countries.  That said, despite knowing a LOT of soccer fanatics, I can't think of anyone who isn't German who really spends much time thinking about German clubs outside of perhaps a big Champions League match.  German clubs rarely compete financially for huge names.  When people mention the best leagues in the world, they inevitably mention England, Spain, and Italy in some order.

Is it the weather? Is it still residual bitterness/dislike from the World Wars? Is it that the Germans, despite their aggressive tendencies in the first half of the 1900s, didn't leave behind a legacy of German-speaking countries around the world that are obvious targets for expansion?

I'm particularly interested in the comparison between the popularity of German and Italian clubs.  I think we can all understand that England and Spain have logical advantages stemming from the large English and Spanish-speaking populations around the world.  With that head start, they have been able to afford better players and the relative popularity of those leagues has grown.  Why I don't understand the gap between Germany and Italy is that it isn't like there's a great imbalance between non-natives elsewhere in the world who speak one language or the other.  Both national teams are extremely successful.  Both national teams play an uncompromising style that neutrals are likely to call "technical" or "effective" rather than "stylish".  Is it that the Germans are more conservative with their money and more cautious about taking the risks that would improve their revenue streams abroad?

In any event, those are the thoughts I had once I moved beyond the summary articles I linked on the blog yesterday and actually read the full report.  I hope you enjoyed that.  If not, I promise that there won't be any additional economic analysis in the immediate term unless someone has a great insight in the comments section or I'm asked a question I feel like I have a useful and interesting answer for. 

We now return you to your previously scheduled fantasy analysis:

Tweeting

We here at the fantasy blog have always considered ourselves fairly enlightened when it comes to technology and social media.  We may not be bleeding edge but between the blog, a fairly active Facebook page, the live chats on (most) EPL Saturdays, and our day jobs (we're both gainfully employed because we know more than a little about the Interwebs) we feel pretty good about our social media chops.  That said, the one social media channel that we've lagged behind on is Twitter.  In an effort to remedy this, I'm trying to tweet more frequently (almost entirely but not exclusively on soccer-related topics).  If you're interested in following me, you can find me at @nealjthurman.

Since I haven't asked Jeremy if he's interested in having his Twitter account shared, I'll let him read and either post a similar note or post his in the comments section here - hint ;-)

@jspitzberg (hint taken).  I've also created a Fantasy EPL list that you can see on the right-hand side of the blog.  You can follow it directly at http://twitter.com/jspitzberg/fantasy-epl

Cheers - Neal

First Impressions and Second Thoughts - Super Bowl Weekend

Wow, what a weekend for football of all varieties.  The kind with the round ball started things off with a shockingly interesting match between Stoke and Sunderland and just kept getting better (or at least more entertaining) from there.  Top it off with the oblong football and the final game of the season that was competitive until the very end.  Throw in a great 40th birthday party for one of our original blog readers and teammates from our respective playing days that included a bunch of old friends that we don't get to see nearly often enough.  Cheers to Art and Jen for putting on a great party.  As you might imagine, I was somewhat less excited about the party that NUFC sparked in a variety of quarters with their epic comeback.  OK, on to the review of the weekend that was in the Prem:

The Barn Door Live - Super Bowl Edition