The Week Ahead - Never Manage Alone Edition, Part 2: Yahoo Player Recommendations

Click here for Part 1 - a look at the opening week's schedule plus a big announcement.

For a day when nothing concrete really happened, it has been a crazy day. The Tevez/Nasri swap was thrown out there and led to Jeremy's excellent post on other potential swap deals that might make sense for both clubs. I'll throw in a slightly smaller deal into the mix as my contribution to rampant speculation about transfers that will never happen:

Niko Kranjcar for Nik Bendtner
No, there's no way that these two North London rivals would get together and voluntarily do a swap deal but it would make sense. With Nasri and Cesc presumably on their way out, Kranjcar would be a logical short-term replacement for Nasri as a creative midfielder who tends to play a little wider than the average central midfielder but isn't a true wing player either - perfect for Arsenal. Not earth-shattering, but a good fit. Bendtner would be a great fit going back in the other direction. He may be a jack@ss but even in part-time duty, he's been more productive than either of Spurs' "big" forwards Crouch and Pav. Throw in the fact that Bendtner is young, has upside, and that his aristocratic wife could more than hold her own socially with Sylvie van der Vaart at team functions and you have the makings of a great swap that will never happen. As a Gooner, it would be a lot of fun getting to root against Bendtner for the next 5 years too.

Back to the swap deal that may come to fruition, I'm not sure how I feel about it. Here are some quick thoughts on the pros and cons of the deal if it has been correctly reported:

Pros

• In Tevez, Arsenal get a playing asset rather than cash that they generally don't spend much of.
• They get that asset in return for an expiring asset in Nasri who was, by all reports, going to leave for free next summer.
• Tevez is really good.
• If they were going to sell Nasri to a Premier League rival, I'm much happier with it being City (who really don't need him and for whom I don't see him as a huge upgrade on what they've got) instead of United where he'd fill a more pronounced gap. I'd rather offload him to Italy, Spain or Russia but if it had to be England, this is the best possible situation.
• Getting the want-away elements out of the Arsenal dressing room can be nothing but a positive despite the talents of the players involved, it has clearly created an environment that the players can't overcome and overall negative momentum for the team.
• Maybe this gets Arsenal out of the "we'll never buy a great player at his peak" mentality (the first evidence of Stan Kroenke's influence as owner? You could never see Wenger signing up for this entirely voluntarily could you?)
• Did I mention that Tevez is really good?

Cons

• Tevez never really seems to be happy so it seems highly likely that we'll be right back here in this spot next summer with Tevez agitating for a move elsewhere "to see his children". We'll call that Summer of Cesc, Part IV: The Tevez Drama when it inevitably happens.
• As Jeremy accurately pointed out, it isn't clear how RvP and Tevez might work together given that Arsenal have been favoring what is essentially a 4-3-3 with RvP playing the only role I can see Tevez occupying which is the central #9 figure.
• If the presence of RvP and Tevez dictates a move towards more of a 4-4-2 formation then what becomes of Gervinho who looks perfectly suited to one of the roles supporting the #9?
• Assuming Cesc goes as well, have Arsenal lost too much creativity while replacing that creativity with big attacking names that are less creative and more goal-scorers? That's a big burden to put on Wilshere, Ramsey and someone who might be purchased either now or in January.

OK, enough speculation on random things and on to the main event, our first week's worth of player recommendations for the Yahoo! fantasy game. Keep in mind that the Spurs match has been postponed due to the riots but that the rest of them are likely to come off as scheduled.

Two More Private Leagues

I'm not sure if there are any spaces still open but two more private leagues have been posted.  Here's the info.

YFF Blog League 11
Group ID#: 6517
Password: footy

YFF Blog League 12
Group ID#: 6518
Password: blog

Cheers - Neal 

The Week Ahead - Final Week

Neal and Jeremy discussing the season.

Jeremy and I were chatting on AIM as Manchester City wrapped up their second win over Stoke City in three days yesterday. As Citeh eclipsed Arsenal in the standings he asked me how I felt about it as an Arsenal fan. This is a question I've been thinking about quite a bit recently, especially since my recent vacation took me to Eastlands for a match between Citeh and Spurs. As it turns out, the answer is a complex one. It is complex mostly because my relationships with football, the Premier League, and Arsenal are fairly complex ones.

As An Arsenal Supporter
The obvious answer would be that I want Arsenal to finish third and avoid the possibility of a Champions League play-in scenario.  The reality is that, like a potential Carling Cup win earlier in the year, I think that finishing second or third would have allowed the Arsenal leadership to paper over the cracks and continue to turn a blind eye to a squad that has some serious flaws.  Is it a certainty that a fourth place finish will change this thinking? No, but the ignominious end to the season combined with a new, single driving force behind the ownership structure will dramatically increase [ed note: do you mean decrease?] the chances of this off-season being another "minor modification" to the squad.

As A Fantasy Player
My immediate reaction was that I was disappointed that any new Arsenal acquisition would likely be less valuable at the beginning of next season as they missed one or more match weeks for Champions League qualification.  The quick follow-up reaction was that I'd MUCH rather Citeh's new bazillionaire players avoid the same early-season fate.  In the Yahoo game identifying inexpensive Premier League newbies (e.g., Adam,  Brunt, Odemwingie, Holden, Kolarov, VDV) at the beginning of the season helps you afford the established veterans who you know will produce (e.g., Drogba, Rooney, RvP, Bale, EvdS).  It usually isn't a mystery as to who the high-potential players are going to be early - United's new keeper, Citeh's new stars, Liverpool's new CB and/or winger, Spurs new striker, Eden Hazzard, Adel Taarabt, etc. - but it becomes harder to buy these players early at what you assume will be their lowest price of the season when you know they'll be missing matches early for Champions League qualification. 

As A Writer
As sad as I am to say it, Arsenal are incredibly polarizing as long as Wenger sticks to his way of doing things.  While this may be frustrating to the part of me that supports the club, it means that writing about Arsenal tends to draw more opinions, create more conversation, and generally increase the extent to which people read and participate.  As you might imagine, this is good for someone who measures writing success - at least to some extent - by the popularity of the posts and the level of intelligent debate that they create in the comments section or on the Facebook site.

So, at the end of the day, each of the factors above was telling me that Citeh beating Stoke and presumably going on to beat out Arsenal for third place and a guaranteed spot in the group stages of the Champions League next season is a good thing for the long term health of the club, my fantasy team, and the popularity of the blog. 

Either that or I just spent 700 or so words convincing myself to avoid crawling into a corner and sobbing uncontrollably over the depressing state of affairs at the Emirates.  I'm not sure which, but I'm going to go with the logical stuff rather that the depressing stuff... for now.

We now return you to your regularly scheduled fantasy analysis column back from ironic hiatus much closer to the actual matches being played.

The Week Ahead - Matchweek 35

It took a while but good things finally happened for (most) fantasy managers who went with two-gamers over the stalwarts from places like Chelsea and Arsenal who were still on their roster from a week ago. There were certainly pitfalls with Zamora, SEB, and eventually Eth being limited by injury (I had all three). Despite those pitfalls some combination of the highly regarded two-gamers - Sturridge, Dempsey, KJones, Pennant, Schwarzer, Begovic, Hangeland, Shawcross, etc - won the day. Even with almost no contribution from the three injured players I ended the week over 100 which is pretty solid when compared with the the one-game alternatives (unless you knew Maxi was going to get a hat trick).

I guess my point is that if you play it smart and limit yourself to guys who at least have a chance to be solid fantasy contributors in any individual match, you're likely to be happy to have those guys for two matches over more talented players over one match. Occasionally it doesn't work out (see the Birmingham disaster of a month or so ago) but much more often than not it will.

Was it sweating bullets on Saturday evening when it was clear that the first round of matches was all but useless? Definitely. Do I feel a lot better now that the second set of matches has been played and it turned out much better? Even more so.

Just something to keep in mind as you look forward to next week when again, there will be a limited number of teams (this time two) who will play two matches. The good news is that the teams are better - Manchester City and Spurs. The bad news is that they play each other in what might be the most unpredictable pairing in the league right now. Still, my inclination is to start thinking about my two-game strategy now rather than thinking that I might want to ignore the two-game thing entirely.

The Week Ahead - Matchweek 34

I wish I could say that anything that unfolded in the North London Derby yesterday surprised me but I honestly can't. As much as I and other Arsenal supporters might wish it to be otherwise, the current incarnation of the club just isn't ready to cope with high pressure situations. Until they sprinkle some seasoning in with the young talent, they will remain a group with unrealized potential. I won't say that they are underachievers because while there is talent there, they have ended up the season doing what pretty much everyone figured they would. They're near the top but not good enough to win the league. The agonizing that has gone on in the press about them stems mostly from the fact that the flaws are obvious and fixable given Arsenal's resources, reputation, and location. That the flaws have gone ignored and generally unacknowledged makes people a bit crazy.

On the other side of the field, Spurs are to borrow a phrase from Dennis Green, lately of the NFL's Arizona Cardinals, "what we thought they were" as well. They have some standout talents to score in big matches but just aren't good enough at the back to ensure that they don't concede more than they score in such situations. The other big problem is that their standout talents are also seemingly very frail. We're talking Robin van Persie frail. van der Vaart has always been that way and Bale's brief career as a starter has been interrupted by significant injury layoffs at an alarming rate.

The upside is that when they get together these two sides put on a heck of a show. The downside is that both fan bases are going to continue to feel somewhat tortured unless more effective solutions can be found for the problems that have dogged both sides for at least the last few years.

We'll move on to suggesting some specific remedies once the fantasy season is over and the thoughts of all good Premier League writers move to transfer targets and squad transformation.

And with that we move from rant to your regularly scheduled fantasy analysis of the coming week:

Barn Door Watch

I don't tend to do a lot of name dropping or anything like that related to my day job but I will today because it will help explain the lateness of this post.  One of my clients was invited to demonstrate something we did for them at a Cyber Security event hosted by the White House (yes, THAT White House).  My client invited me and one of my co-workers along as well which was kind of cool.  I'm guessing most of you don't care but it was sort of fun for me to see one of the projects I've worked on get some high level recognition.

OK, enough with the excuses and on to the look ahead to the Barn Door that we'll all be contemplating over the weekend as the matches unfold and we look to optimize our teams for the next match week. 

Once again, the schedule is an odd one with everyone playing once and four teams playing twice. Here's the thing, the teams that are playing twice are going to test the skills and abilities of fantasy managers everywhere because, how to say this nicely, none of them are exactly challenging for a spot in Europe.  The other quirk is that NONE OF THEM ARE PLAYING THIS WEEKEND.  So really, there isn't much need to spend a lot of mental effort on the BD (which is nice). 

If you do want a little look ahead just to have something to read and to consider one-gamers you might want to keep amongst the two-gamers, here are some thoughts.

So, here are the two-gamers and a quick review of the value each team is likely to deliver:

The Week Ahead - Slacker Edition

I have to admit it, I'm having a lot of trouble getting motivated to focus on fantasy over the last couple of weeks. Maybe it is the fact that we've been doing this for 8 months. Maybe it is the hangover from Arsenal crashing out of contention on all four fronts. Maybe it is related to the warmer weather combined with baseball and MLS starting up and still holding so much promise. I'm guessing its mostly the Arsenal thing with a small sprinkle of the other factors as well.

Like most of the managers around the league, the end of this season has me thinking about next season and what can be done to improve what we do and how we enjoy the fantasy games available to us.

The BEST option would be to create our own fantasy game that improves on the experiences currently offered by the "big two" (PremierLeague.com and Yahoo! UK). Unfortunately, that best option is expensive and time consuming so unless there's someone out there with money to spend that believes that there is a market for a better fantasy Premier League experience, we'll have to move on to the next best thing.

The problem is that I'm not sure what the "next best thing" might be. The first thing that springs to my mind is a competition more like American-style fantasy football where those who are interested join a league, pay an entry fee with the winners (maybe the "top four") winning some percentage of the pot.

My intuition tells me that there is a need for both long term prizes like the one suggested above and short term prizes that will keep people motivated as the season wears on. As an example, in our private league, I already know I'm not going to finish above third unless one or both of the top two leave a player out of the line-up for the next four weeks. There is some pride on the line since I'm currently in fourth and would like to beat Jeremy out for third but with no tangible outcome associated with that other than a few boasting IMs over the summer that really isn't enough motivation.

Here is my thought. Since I clearly don't have the answer here, I'd like to hear from our readers. Is there interest in some sort of a premium league that would take your performance from the Yahoo game and translate it into another competition? If so, what ideas do you have for the sort of competition that would keep the fun going throughout the entire season?

I have one idea that I'll throw out there that might provide a different experience. Rather than having a "Cup" competition (AM, PremierLeague.com, and others already do that) or a private group where we exactly follow the scoring system of the overall game (EPLTalk.com and others do that). Maybe we could put teams in to "leagues" and play schedules within those individual leagues. The first few teams in each league would win prize money. It wouldn't entirely eliminate the problem of teams being out of the running for prizes toward the end of the season but it would likely increase the probability of more teams staying in the race longer.

So, what do you think? Do you like that idea? Would you participate? Would you contribute an entry fee to be involved? If not that specific idea, what else would be of interest. I'm very much open to ideas to increase our collective enjoyment of what we're spending our leisure time on.

The Week Ahead - Finally We're Back Edition

As Jeremy mentioned, this month has been a bit of a challenge when it comes to getting our heads back into the Premier League. I appreciate the fact that internationals need to happen and cup competitions need to be wrapped up (although as an Arsenal fan, I could have done without those this season - yup, still bitter). Still, do they need to disrupt the Premier League season at such a critical time in the calendar?

Why not now? Spring is springing and there are at least some times when we might want to be outdoors. In the States, Major League Baseball is starting (today in fact), college basketball is all-encompassing for a few weeks, and for those of us inclined toward soccer MLS is starting up. Elsewhere in the world the Cricket World Cup is also going on which certainly has potential Premier League fans in places like India, South Africa, and Australia pretty engrossed (good luck to India in the finals on Saturday).

The bottom line is that there is so much going on that distracts us from the season. I have to admit that if you'd asked me yesterday I couldn't have told you with any fidelity who I had on my roster for either the Yahoo! or Premier League games. With a season so long I have to think that letting the audience, especially those outside the UK, turn their focus elsewhere for almost an entire month has to be a bad idea. Especially if the month is March. The Premier League would do well to lobby to have the same sort of break happen in February instead because there's nothing else going on then to distract the audience. Just a thought before diving into the recommendations.

The Barn Door Live - March Madness Edition

The (Quick) Week Ahead

No real time for a big rant this weekend. I know you're all disappointed to have 10 to 15 minutes of your Friday back but it can't be helped.  Between a lot going on at work and yesterday being one of the great days of the year in American sports (St. Patrick's Day/First Day of College Basketball Tournament/One of the first warm days of the year) there was no excuse but to be out enjoying it.  With that, I'll take you directly to what you need to know for the weekend ahead.

The Week Ahead

Let the mediocrity continue.  That’s what I took away from today’s twin announcements that Darren Fletcher and Michael Carrick have signed new long term contracts with Manchester United.  I’m sure some of you who have been following this space for a while will write these comments off to the sour grapes of a Gooner still stinging from the Carling Cup fiasco but I assure you, there is more thought behind what I say/type than that.

First, let me assure you, my primary intention isn’t to take cheap shots at Fletcher and Carrick.  I’m sure I could overstate the case and get the United supporters in the crowd riled up enough to fill the comments thread to overflowing with insults to my intelligence and/or the legitimacy of my position as a commentator on things Premier League-related.  Most of the time, however, I try to refrain from that sort of sensationalism in favor of trying to look a little deeper and interpret what I see going on in the league.

In this case, the negative signs that I see in the re-signings of these two players who I think we’ll all admit are limited on their best days is that the financial issues at Old Trafford are set to continue.  United certainly don’t lack for bodies that are best suited for playing in midfield.  They have Scholes, Giggs, Nani, Valencia, Park, Anderson, Gibson, Welbeck, Cleverley, and theoretically Hargreaves in addition to Fletcher and Carrick.  That’s a lot of bodies.  The problem is that, Nani aside, there isn’t a lot of quality.  Assuming that SAF isn’t ready to give up on the kids – Anderson, Gibson, Welbeck, and Cleverley – we can be fairly assured that nearly the entire group above will be back next season.  That is important because it implies that SAF is going to try to make due with quantity over quality again. 

Those of you who support United – as well as those who like to pick a good verbal fight – may point out that the quantity over quality thing has been working out fairly well for United this season so far.  They do still sit in first despite the loss to Chelsea last Sunday don’t they?  I can’t argue that.  What I can suggest is that this is an unusual year in that the points haul necessary to win the championship is likely to be about 10 points lower than it usually is.  If either United or Arsenal make it to 80 points, it will represent a reasonable stretch run.  Compare that to years past when the winner walked away with a point total in the high 80s or low 90s. 

If you believe that there is a “new normal” with more parity in the league and lower point totals are going to do the job for the foreseeable future then maybe United’s strategy can still keep them serious contenders.  If, on the other hand, you suspect like I do that one or more of the other contenders – most likely Chelsea or City on the backs of their wealth – will keep spending until they get their mix of high-priced players right then you have to suspect that United’s strategy isn’t going to get it done in the seasons to come.  They NEED another exceptional midfielder – preferably of the holding variety – in much the same way that Arsenal have obviously need an exceptional CB/Keeper over the last few summers.  If these signings are a hint that United – due to stubbornness or lack of ability to spend – are going to “pull a Wenger” and try to substitute numbers and youth for difference-makers then I suspect that we’re going to be seeing a lot more of those green and yellow scarves in the stands in the upcoming seasons.

On to the upcoming week in fantasy:

The Week Ahead - Carling Cup Championship Edition

Memory is a funny thing.  At its best it allows us to relive fond memories of friends, events, and times gone by as we sip our favorite adult beverages and look out at the ocean or sunset or something similarly suitable for recalling such things.  At its worst, it fools us into thinking that things are still the way they were when an impression was formed.  What do I mean?

At its best, memory allows Liverpool fans to remember fondly the days when they were a dominant force in English football which probably helps them cope with the fact that this hasn't actually true for a number of years.  That's what brand, tradition and a lifetime of memories (fueled by highlights packages, sports radio, and stories from your elders) can do on the upside.

At its worst, memory causes fantasy managers to get suckered into wasting roster spots on fading forces like Giggs and Scholes because they see "ManYoo playing twice" and remember the days not so long ago when both were among the best players in the Premier League.  Then they see what appear to be relatively inexpensive prices (at least compared to years past) for the two and think - how could it go wrong?

How it could go wrong is pretty simple:

• Giggs - He has only started 17 matches total in all competitions this season and only twice in that time has he started two in a span of less than seven days - of those two times only once did he complete both matches.  With two goals and four assists to show for his Premier League exploits this season, any realistic hope of an exceptional fantasy performance rests more on fond memories than any empirical analysis.
• Scholes - He has started the same 17 total matches in all competitions and one ups Giggs on the number of "back-to-back" matches he's started (3) and played the full 90 in (2).  Still with yellow cards (8) doubling his combined total of goals (1) and assists (3) you have to wonder why you'd bother at any price.

If you're thinking of spending the 10+ on Giggs then you should probably find a way to add an extra defender to your line-up and move up to 13 and buy Vidic who is as close to guaranteed to start both matches and has a much higher points/match average.  The only way I'll sanction the Scholes purchase is if it is done entirely to afford other players who WILL do something useful for you (he IS coming in at a Carew-like 2.92).

I know I usually wait to talk about specific players but I went straight from the comments section of one of Jeremy's posts to this and I felt that it couldn't be ignored.  Now back to your regularly scheduled fantasy analysis.

First Impressions and Second Thoughts - Manchester Derby Weekend

Nani's Reaction Upon Reading Our Review Below

Before we get to the specifics related to the Premier League action on the field.  I'm going to start out with a random thought that I had over the weekend.  As these soccer-related thoughts usually do, it ended up being an SMS conversation with Jeremy which was interesting enough that we both thought that it was worth using as the opening for a column.  Then, when I saw that Ronaldo (the Brazilian one) was set to announce his retirement from professional football tomorrow, I knew it was Karma telling me that I had found the right opener for First Impressions.  What was the thought?

What happened to the Brazilians? I watched the International Friendly between Brazil and France this past week and it got my brain to thinking (yes, it happens from time to time) - how is it that there are no Brazilian superstars?  There are lots of very, very good Brazilian players in the game right now and even some who might be considered among the very best at their positions in the world.  That said, there isn't a Brazilian player who demands you say "WOW" as a result of his performances.  On the eve of Ronaldo's retirement, we are left wondering who the heir to the recent run of attacking superstars - Romario, Ronaldo, and Ronaldinho might be.

If you start listing the world's best attacking players you have to go a long way before you'd get to a Brazilian based on performance (as opposed to reputation).  The list of the best attackers has to start with Messi and that other Ronaldo fellow and then you start talking about Sneijder, Drogba, Ibra, Xavi, Iniesta, and others before you'd get to the first Brazilian on your list.  So what happened? Kaka was supposed to be the headliner of his generation but he's been pretty invisible for about 18 months now.  Robinho was supposed to be the "next Henry" combining pace, shooting, passing, and dribbling ability but he's been through just about every big club in Europe and no one really seems to want him.  Pato was supposed to be the "next big thing" after those two but his last two seasons have been derailed.  His strike rate for Milan has been very strong but he's only played a total of 35 league matches across the two seasons.  Not exactly the stuff of legends.

Oddly, the only place that Brazilians can claim to be at the absolute top of their professions is in the back.  Alves and Maicon are both exceptional players. That said, it isn't often that an outside defender can really be considered a superstar.  Roberto Carlos was the exception to this rule but neither Alves nor Maicon are up to that standard.  There are also very good Brazilian central defenders but again, you wouldn't say that there are any absolute superstars among them.  Very, very good? Definitely, but you wouldn't necessarily pick any Brazilian defender over Vidic if you were starting a team from scratch.

So what happened? Is it just one of those things?  A slight downward trend that will be remedied in a couple of years when the "next big thing" comes along?  Is it that the rest of the world - most notably Africa - are catching up to the Brazilians and making the difference between the best Brazilians and the best of the rest not seem so big? I can't claim to have an answer but as I watched Sandro try to adapt to life in the Prem and added to that the fact that he was playing for his country in mid-week, I could help but think about the fact that this isn't the Brazil of the last 25 or 30 years.  Any thoughts from you guys on why?

OK, with that international football aside out of the way, here are some observations on the weekend that was in the Prem:

The Barn Door Live - Manchester Derby Edition

Barn Door Watch: A Quick Look Ahead

I'm going to try to bring back the BD watch in a modified format.  Here is what I'll be thinking about as soon as line-ups lock in for the current match-week:

• RSC is healthy? - how do he and Rovers look?  They're @AST next which isn't great but it isn't horrible either.
• Carling Cup Final Impact - TOT/ARS and CHE/BRM have both been postponed for the next match week due to the ARS/BRM Carling Cup Final.  They have not yet been re-scheduled.  This makes TOT, ARS, and BRM idle for the purposes of fantasy next match week.  It makes Chelsea one-gamers. 
• ManYoo Two Matches - Granted the second one is @CHE but with the first one being @WIG it seems like you'll want to shift resources from BRM/ARS/TOT to MAN.  Rooney, Berbs, Nani, and maybe Smalling if the Rio and Evans injuries persist.
• Citeh Second - If you're not convinced by United's two matches then Citeh (home against Fulham) are probably the next best bet from match-up standpoint. Tevez, Silva, and maybe one of the defenders are the highlights.
• Luiz Watch - Assuming he's going to be a great addition for the balance of the season, does he do enough on Saturday to force you to BD him for the next match week or can you wait until after the ManYoo match? 
• Liverpool Third - Liverpool travel to WHU which represents the third best match-up advantage of the next match week for my money.  Meireles Suarez, Kelly and Reina are worth looking at.

There will surely be more BD candidates as the matches unfold but hopefully this will help you organize your thoughts before the chaos starts up.

Cheers - Neal

The Week Ahead - Manchester Derby Edition

Funny, I've only made the commitment to tweeting in the last 24 hours but already I feel more connected to people.  Maybe it has to do with the fact that I gained a lot of Twitter followers (and thank you to everyone who decided to follow me @nealjthurman) while I was sleeping last night while our Facebook following has slowed to a small steady growth.  Don't get me wrong, steady growth toward 3000 "Likes" is great but tripling your number of followers FEELS like a more significant accomplishment even if the number isn't that impressive.  In any event, for those who haven't embraced the Twitter, you should give it a try.

Moving in a completely non-sequential manner, I have two follow-up thoughts to the Deloitte Money Table posts from yesterday.  The first is that those leaving comments related to profitability are correct.  Revenue is only a part of the equation.  I'm guessing that part of the issue for Deloitte is that due to varying ownership structures and the sporadic availability of "bottom line" data I'd guess that a real accounting of profitability of all clubs would be more difficult than just compiling revenue figures.  I may be wrong but it certainly seems that way.  The public companies must of course disclose their profitability but I'm not sure there's any obligation for the Glazers or Abramovic or any other private group to disclose their profits.  Revenues are easier to get at since most of those figures are available from other sources if the clubs don't cooperate.  In any event, I'd enjoy the opportunity to get profitability numbers as well (although there's little doubt who would sit atop that table).

My second thought is an ironic one.  The lagging reputations of German clubs, especially vs. the big Italian clubs.  Germany has more people, a much stronger economy, and I'm not aware that they support a culture of corruption and match-fixing.  That said, outside of Bayern Munich, you'd be hard-pressed to guess which German club might finish second in revenue in a given season and the movement - two clubs out of the Top 20 and two new ones in - seem to indicate that there is little consistency.  The Deloitte report mentions that the pay TV market in Germany isn't terribly mature compared to the other countries.  That said, despite knowing a LOT of soccer fanatics, I can't think of anyone who isn't German who really spends much time thinking about German clubs outside of perhaps a big Champions League match.  German clubs rarely compete financially for huge names.  When people mention the best leagues in the world, they inevitably mention England, Spain, and Italy in some order.

Is it the weather? Is it still residual bitterness/dislike from the World Wars? Is it that the Germans, despite their aggressive tendencies in the first half of the 1900s, didn't leave behind a legacy of German-speaking countries around the world that are obvious targets for expansion?

I'm particularly interested in the comparison between the popularity of German and Italian clubs.  I think we can all understand that England and Spain have logical advantages stemming from the large English and Spanish-speaking populations around the world.  With that head start, they have been able to afford better players and the relative popularity of those leagues has grown.  Why I don't understand the gap between Germany and Italy is that it isn't like there's a great imbalance between non-natives elsewhere in the world who speak one language or the other.  Both national teams are extremely successful.  Both national teams play an uncompromising style that neutrals are likely to call "technical" or "effective" rather than "stylish".  Is it that the Germans are more conservative with their money and more cautious about taking the risks that would improve their revenue streams abroad?

In any event, those are the thoughts I had once I moved beyond the summary articles I linked on the blog yesterday and actually read the full report.  I hope you enjoyed that.  If not, I promise that there won't be any additional economic analysis in the immediate term unless someone has a great insight in the comments section or I'm asked a question I feel like I have a useful and interesting answer for. 

We now return you to your previously scheduled fantasy analysis:

Tweeting

We here at the fantasy blog have always considered ourselves fairly enlightened when it comes to technology and social media.  We may not be bleeding edge but between the blog, a fairly active Facebook page, the live chats on (most) EPL Saturdays, and our day jobs (we're both gainfully employed because we know more than a little about the Interwebs) we feel pretty good about our social media chops.  That said, the one social media channel that we've lagged behind on is Twitter.  In an effort to remedy this, I'm trying to tweet more frequently (almost entirely but not exclusively on soccer-related topics).  If you're interested in following me, you can find me at @nealjthurman.

Since I haven't asked Jeremy if he's interested in having his Twitter account shared, I'll let him read and either post a similar note or post his in the comments section here - hint ;-)

@jspitzberg (hint taken).  I've also created a Fantasy EPL list that you can see on the right-hand side of the blog.  You can follow it directly at http://twitter.com/jspitzberg/fantasy-epl

Cheers - Neal

First Impressions and Second Thoughts - Super Bowl Weekend

Wow, what a weekend for football of all varieties.  The kind with the round ball started things off with a shockingly interesting match between Stoke and Sunderland and just kept getting better (or at least more entertaining) from there.  Top it off with the oblong football and the final game of the season that was competitive until the very end.  Throw in a great 40th birthday party for one of our original blog readers and teammates from our respective playing days that included a bunch of old friends that we don't get to see nearly often enough.  Cheers to Art and Jen for putting on a great party.  As you might imagine, I was somewhat less excited about the party that NUFC sparked in a variety of quarters with their epic comeback.  OK, on to the review of the weekend that was in the Prem:

The Barn Door Live - Super Bowl Edition

The Week Ahead - Super Bowl Edition

With just about every media outlet here in the States focused entirely on the biggest sporting event of the year (that's the Super Bowl in our version of football for the uninitiated), I have to say I'm really enjoying the fact that I have something else to focus on.  The midweek matches were interesting.  My fantasy team did reasonably well.  And most importantly, I'm not suffering the same fate as NFL-only types who will wait two weeks between games with nothing but fluff and over-analysis to fill the time.  Speaking of over analysis, Jeremy and I got off on an IM tangent yesterday about the relegation race.  It got me thinking that outside of the title race, we hadn't checked in on the real standings in a while. So, before we get to the usual fantasy analysis, we'll spend a little time on the 4th Champions League spot and the relegation battle.

The Fourth Champions League Spot
Early in the window, specifically right after Citeh got Dzeko and then Bale got injured, it was easy to get sucked into the notion that Chelsea and Spurs would be fighting it out for the final spot.  So, what's happened since then? Citeh has continued to show that they are less than the sum of their very expensive parts.  It isn't hard to see them slipping.  They currently occupy the third spot but they have played one more match than any of the teams around them in the standings.  If they don't figure out how to maximize their talent, they could be on the outside looking in. 

Chelsea are going in exactly the opposite direction.  After weeks of malaise, they seem to be regaining the momentum they had early in the season.  They aren't exactly the dominating force that was winning 6-0 regularly but they're getting closer.  The momentum gained with the purchase of Torres and Luiz seems likely to keep things going in the right direction.  The bigger question is whether they are too far out for an assault on the top.  Hard to imagine them not making the top four at this point.

Finally, what to make of Spurs.  Their manager seems resigned to the fifth spot.  Or at least he's managing expectations against the fact that there's a very good chance that they will end up fifth. That said, if they win the match they have in hand then they're only two points shy of Citeh with plenty of time left to make up that difference.  With their ignominious exit from the FA Cup behind them, they only have two fronts to fight on which should help while Citeh still have the league, Europa Cup, and FA Cup (assuming they win their replay) to contend with.  There's no reason to think Spurs are out of the race for fourth, especially if Bale returns to fitness in short order.  If they can't make up the two points in the standings to a team that has shown that they will drop points to bad teams, then they don't deserve to be in the Champions League.

All that said, I favor Spurs slightly over Citeh to sneak into the fourth spot. There's just something about the Citeh team that leaves me flat.  Outside of Tevez, they just don't seem to have much passion for the game.  They're just showing up and playing which given their talent may be enough most of the time but they just don't show up frequently enough for me.  Spurs are guilty of boneheaded errors that cost them points but they generally seem like they want it.  I'll take pretty talented and wanting it over very talented and not caring that much every time. 

Relegation
Since my Fourth Place section ran a bit longer than I thought it would (shocking, I know), I'll try to keep this one brief so we're going Twitter-style - 140 characters or less on each team that I consider to still be in the relegation battle. (Incidentally, I think Fulham secured staying up with their win yesterday - not guaranteed safety mind you but it's starting to feel pretty safe at the Cottage).

Blackpool - They have one more run of surprising results and they're safe - Reid and Beattie will be important here.  #PrettySafe

Villa - DBent will more than repay his price.  Lots of options in midfield now with Makoun and Bradley joining.  #GoodMomentum

Everton - In more danger than they should be.  Hard to see them going down but the remaining schedule is tough.  #WillBeClose

West Brom - Definitely on the wane but they have one important thing that will separate them - a strong goal scorer.  #OdemToTheRescue

Birmingham - As much as I love Bentley and Martins, I don't think they did enough.  I see bad things ahead. #Drop

WHU - Of their 24 points, half have come since December 18th.  Seems like things are going in the right direction. #Survival

Wigan - I can't think of any reason that things would get any better for the Latics.  #Drop

Wolves - Things just aren't falling in their favor this season on the field.  I've liked the moves they've made but they just don't seem to have any luck.  #Drop

So there you have it, I'm guessing the bottom five (in order) will be WHU, EVE, BRM, WOL, WIG.  Not a single newly promoted side "yoyo-ing" back down. Now, on to the fantasy analysis...