The Week Ahead - Matchweek 33

Interesting reaction to the post on Charlie Adam.  I saw a lot of support for Michael Carrick from people who wanted to claim that because he has won titles and started lots of matches that he's an excellent player.  The second most frequent source of criticism was that I was letting my pro-Arsenal bias show through in the type of midfielders I tend to prefer.  I would like to dispute both notions.  And clarify my comments about Carrick and Adam.

First, on Carrick.  Please check your facts - he hasn't started more than 24 matches in the league for United since 2006-07, his first year with the club.  He has played 19 matches for them this season. He has been the definition of a squad player.  He doesn't have any single outstanding skill.  His passing is above average but not exceptional.  He doesn't score.  He doesn't tackle particularly well.  He isn't fleet of foot.  He isn't seen as the organizer of the defense.  About once per season he takes an exceptional shot from long range.  He is a squad player, no more.  He is fortunate to be a squad player on an excellent team.

Now, lest we forget, he was purchased for £18 Million.  If you bought Carrick for say £5 Million and got a squad player who can start 20-odd matches then that's some good business.  If you pay £18 Million you're looking for someone you expect to start just about every match and make a noticeable contribution more than once in a blue moon. 

This is the root of the comparison to Charlie Adam.  I don't think Adam or Carrick would be bad players for any of the bigger teams that I listed.  What I said was that I thought he'd be a disappointment for any of those teams given the amount of money that they would undoubtedly have to pay for him.  The exceptional things that he does for Blackpool are already being done by other people at United, Liverpool, and Spurs.

Could Adam make the same contribution that Carrick has made to United? Sure.  Is that worth £18 Million (or even the more likely fee of around £12 Million)? I wouldn't think so.  I'd think any of the clubs I mentioned would be far better served going with other options - specifically options who price won't be artificially inflated by results that they are never going to see.

I appreciate that it is easy to make the connection between my support of Arsenal and any criticism I make of players who play for other teams - especially United or Spurs - but the mere fact of my support for Arsenal doesn't mean that it drives everything that I write.  I'd bet that if you got an honest answer from Sir Alex that he'd be disappointed in the results of his purchase of Carrick.  Not because Carrick doesn't have a role to play but because he paid WAY too much money to get him.

Adam Buyers Beware

As I sit watching David Silva come on for James Milner in the last 30 minutes of the Liverpool blowout of City today, I had a thought. We've seen Roy Hodgson rediscover both his mojo and his "proper depth" in the Premier League over the last two months. We've seen Milner (and Barry) struggle to justify their prices at a "big club" over the months since they came over from Villa. We've seen Scott Parker rediscover himself at West Ham. You get the idea.

What's my point? Some players (and managers) are meant to be big fish in little ponds while others are prepared to move on to bigger stages. The mere fact of being very good in the Premier League for a modest club is not enough to imply that you are likely to be ready for a step up.

This brings us to the case of Charlie Adam. First things first, I really like watching Adam play and I like it even more because he's been a rock for my fantasy team for most of the season at a very reasonable price. This isn't a diatribe against Charlie Adam. My worry for him is that he's not really big club material.

Why do I say that? His game will change if he moves up a few steps in the same sort of way that Uncle Woy's job changed when he moved from Fulham to Liverpool. Technically the job description is the same but that's only until you get to the fine print.

Say Adam moves to Liverpool, Spurs, or United (the three most frequently mentioned options), here's how his value will diminish:

• Free Kicks - much of Adam's value to Blackpool is on set pieces - he takes really good ones that lead to much needed goals.  At the clubs mentioned above you can't really see him taking kicks over Bale, Modric, Nani, Giggs, Gerrard, Meireles, or Suarez can you? 
• Possession/Creativity - Another major part of Adam's value is that he has a lot of the ball in the middle of the park for Blackpool and makes the incisive passes that often lead to the goals that have kept Blackpool at least alive and kicking for staying up.  At the clubs above - specifically Liverpool and Spurs - there are midfielders in Modric and Meireles who already do an excellent job in that role.  Again, Adam would be a nice back-up plan but would hardly be worth the money.
• Penalties -  Adam gets a bunch of his goals for Blackpool from the spot so while the total of 9 goals from a midfielder looks nice the fact that six of them are from the spot means that his value is based in great part on the fact that he'd be the main taker.  As above, it seems unlikely that Adam would be the choice at United/Spurs/Liverpool over the current cast of characters.  3 goals and 6 assists don't look quite as good as 9 goals and 6 assists, huh?
• Position - My sense is that Adam's best position is as a poor man's Alonso from the best days of Rafa's Liverpool.  He isn't a "Scholes-type" tucked in behind the forwards and he isn't a Makelele/Keane-like holding destroyer.  The best comparison might be Michael Carrick who was good for adequate Spurs teams but has similarly struggled with the move up in competition.

So there you have it, is Charlie Adam the next Michael Carrick?  Big transfer fee but unable to cut it at a top club? What say you?

Barn Door Live

Barn Door Watch

The two-gamers return next match week and as such, so does the need to be particularly vigilant on the Barn Door so you don't get shut out of some inexpensive two-match goodness.  Here's what you need to know:

Two Gamers

• Chelsea - and neither of their matches (@WBA and BRM) are exceptionally difficult.  Time to find a way to get some of their expensive players on board.
• Arsenal - but their matches (LIV and @TOT) are much tougher so I wouldn't get TOO excited.
• Birmingham - and they have a mixed bag of SUN (who are playing really badly) and @CHE which is going to be a lot tougher.

No Games

• Stoke
• Wolves
• Bolton
• Citeh
• Fulham

No huge losses among the teams that won't be playing really.  I'm not saying there aren't any good fantasy players to be had on those teams but there certainly aren't many long term keepers that you'd have to make the decision to ditch or not.  Maybe Kolarov (but I'd keep him if you've had him all season) but otherwise these are teams that you only pick on a match-up-by-match-up basis.

Players to Watch

• Drogba/Lamps/Cech/Luiz/Torres
• RvP
• Gardner
• Adam - he's only a one-gamer but he's home to Wigan
• Others if they're healthy - Zigic, Walcott, Martins, whomever from Everton turns up healthy in the attack (they're only 1 gamers but they're home to Rovers)

Barn Door Watch: A Quick Look Ahead

I'm going to try to bring back the BD watch in a modified format.  Here is what I'll be thinking about as soon as line-ups lock in for the current match-week:

• RSC is healthy? - how do he and Rovers look?  They're @AST next which isn't great but it isn't horrible either.
• Carling Cup Final Impact - TOT/ARS and CHE/BRM have both been postponed for the next match week due to the ARS/BRM Carling Cup Final.  They have not yet been re-scheduled.  This makes TOT, ARS, and BRM idle for the purposes of fantasy next match week.  It makes Chelsea one-gamers. 
• ManYoo Two Matches - Granted the second one is @CHE but with the first one being @WIG it seems like you'll want to shift resources from BRM/ARS/TOT to MAN.  Rooney, Berbs, Nani, and maybe Smalling if the Rio and Evans injuries persist.
• Citeh Second - If you're not convinced by United's two matches then Citeh (home against Fulham) are probably the next best bet from match-up standpoint. Tevez, Silva, and maybe one of the defenders are the highlights.
• Luiz Watch - Assuming he's going to be a great addition for the balance of the season, does he do enough on Saturday to force you to BD him for the next match week or can you wait until after the ManYoo match? 
• Liverpool Third - Liverpool travel to WHU which represents the third best match-up advantage of the next match week for my money.  Meireles Suarez, Kelly and Reina are worth looking at.

There will surely be more BD candidates as the matches unfold but hopefully this will help you organize your thoughts before the chaos starts up.

Cheers - Neal