Hmm, talk about mixed feelings. As predicted, Arsenal broke out of their scoring funk against Sheffield United at Emirates Stadium last Saturday (no real genius there). The downside was that somehow there was very little fantasy benefit from the Gunners attacking players. Cesc muted a nice performance with a yellow card. Henry had a respectable 17 points but got nothing for the first two goals despite creating both with a flick into Fabregas and a mishandled cross respectively. Rosicky was pretty much a non-factor with Ljungberg being the much more active of Arsenal's wing midfielders. All of this is to be kept in mind as Arsenal continue their string of matches against poor opposition with this week's visit to Charlton.
In other news, Spurs really aren't good (sorry Erik). They failed to capitalize on their opportunities and Jenas specifically justified everyone's dismay at his reputation with a spectacular miss. At the same time, Liverpool have started to emerge from their early-season offensive funk with Dirk Kuyt looking to be the man at the center of the good things that are happening at Anfield. Oddly, Mr. Gerrard still seems to be pretty much absent both on the pitch and for fantasy managers. The other worry here is squad rotation, especially on the left side where Riise, Gonzalez, and Aurellio are all vying for the two wing spots. Striker rotation is also going to be critical for fantasy managers looking to get in on Liverpool's newfound ability to put the ball in the net.
My final observation from last week (and Tuesday's Champions League match) is that even Ryan Giggs' sterling reputation doesn't do service to his impact on Manchester United. For years he has been a terror on the left side of midfield but now in what are supposed to be his waning years he has moved to the center of the pitch and United have been scintillating with him and mediocre without him. SAF will have a VERY interesting decision to make if both Giggs and Scholes are healthy at the same time – the Devils' best XI would feature Giggs in a central role and Scholes on the bench but will SAF pull the trigger? For fantasy managers, Rooney and Saha are far less valuable until Giggs returns – only Ronaldo seems like a prudent investment among ManYoo attackers given the current situation.
On to the week to come that…
Chelsea – Home to Villa and the war of words between O'Neill, Jose, and Petrov has already started with Petrov wanting "revenge" from the UEFA Cup Final a few seasons back…is this really the best story line that the media can come up with? How about Lampard being the ultimate fantasy player (getting lots of points but few that really matter) so far this season? How about the emergence of Ridgewell, Luke Moore, and Gabriel Agbonlahor at Villa? (and how sad is it for fantasy managers that Agbonlahor is listed as a forward?). Anyway, my (so far murky) crystal ball has this one ending as a hard fought 1-0 Chelsea win with few fantasy points available from either side. Ashley Cole is still inexpensive and should get at least decent points from a clean sheet. Lampard and Drogba are really the only two others that I'd give any serious consideration to. O'Neill's focus on organization leaves me thinking that Robben will find it hard going if he gets another start.
The Race for the Champions League – I'm about ready to drop Spurs from this category unless they show SOMETHING that resembles a sign of life. With stingy Pompey arriving at White Hart Lane, the prospects for a turn-around this week seem limited. In fact, given last week's performance by Spurs, I'm pushing Sean Davis in midfield as well as Kanu who seems likely to capitalize on the chaos that is currently infecting Spurs backline. Assou-Ekotto is still relatively inexpensive as a wing defender but Spurs inability to keep a clean sheet limits his value unless you can't afford anyone else.
As discussed above, Arsenal are coming off two straight impressive performances – one in the EPL and one in the Champions League. You would be right in saying that in neither case was the opposition spectacular but it hardly matters with Charlton providing this weeks test. Henry seems to be rounding into form – fantasy managers will ignore this fact at their own peril. I'm still bullish on Cesc as the fulcrum of an offense on the rise and one of the few midfielders guaranteed a spot in the Starting XI for the Gunners. On defense, Eboue is a must-start if you can afford him. He has been one of the major forces in the attack and you have to like Arsenal's chances for a clean sheet against Athletic. The big debate that Jeremy and I had this week over Instant Messager regards Arsenal's other forward. Van Persie looked good against Porto but his starting spot is certainly up in the air with K2 having led the line against Man United and seemingly been the first choice to partner Henry in the Prem so far this season. Roll the dice if you'd like but unless you see something definitive from Wenger, I'd stay away.
Liverpool are flying – just in time for a trip to the Reebok. This has never been a recipe for free flowing attacking play as Big Sam's boys try to jam things up and grind out their points. I'm in (perhaps a little late) for Kuyt and Gonzalez is a bargain if you think he's going to get the start but given the opposition and their ability to frustrate, I'd predict (at least) a yellow card for Bellamy and Gerrard and a general paucity (that means "lack" kids, sorry, felt the need to use my vocabulary today) of fantasy points to be had. There is a reasonable chance of a clean sheet for Liverpool so their defenders and Reina are decent bets but the best bet in defense is whichever of Riise or Aurellio starts and I'd guess that will be decided no earlier than Friday evening if then. Bolton, for their part, remain fantasy poison. Our hopes were raised when Anelka joined and he may yet provide fantasy managers with something to consider but so far he's hardly resembled the fantasy star that wore the same name on the back of a sky blue Manchester City shirt. Wait until he proves he's back before you dive in.
As noted above, Man United are a HUGE question mark in my mind until Giggs gets back. Ronaldo had a great individual fantasy weekend against Reading but Rooney and Saha look lost without Giggs to orchestrate the attack. Granted NUFC's back four aren't setting the Premiership afire nor are they a great bet on the road at Old Trafford but the same could be said of Reading's (even less talented) defense and that didn't exactly mean attacking fireworks for United. Ronaldo is definitely worth a spot. Saha is inexpensive enough that you could justify the risk. Rooney hasn't shown he's ready to produce. Heinze is another bargain who merits consideration if you think he can keep his elbows to himself and avoid another card – if he can refind some of his form going forward, he'll be a huge bargain this week. NUFC will likely find the going tough against United's still-difficult-to-breach defense. I'd stay away from Parker, Emre, Martins, and Ameobi this weekend. If you have to go for one, I'd say Emre would be my choice.
Against the Relegation Zone – So, you want to know what happened to West Ham's mojo from last season? Apparently, it has exited East London and made the short trip to the suburb of Reading where the Royals are looking more and more like last year's edition of the Hammers. Newly promoted club, free flowing offense, young players creating a reputation for themselves, great team spirit, optimism, and little to lose leading to shocking results like last week's home draw with Manchester United. This week, the Royals face what they must guard against next year (yes, I already have them staying up) – the weight of expectations and the need to integrate new players. West Ham have struggled despite raising their talent level and depth in the off-season and the results are apparent to fantasy managers. Given that neither team boasts a particularly strong defense, all of the strikers and offensive-minded midfielders in this match – Zamora, Tevez, Benayoun, Etherington, Lita, Doyle, Seol, Convey, and Sidwell – merit at least SOME consideration. In my mind, Zamora, Seol and Convey are the best bets with those wanting to take a HUGE high risk/high reward play thinking about Tevez. The defenses on both sides should be ignored with the possible exception of Nicky Shorey who has been getting forward nicely but is still unlikely to get clean sheet points.
Sheffield United host what has thus far been an up-and-down Boro squad. Given Sheffield United's modest offensive capabilities, Jonathan Woodgate might be in line to be a fantasy bargain this weekend. Euell, Yakubu, and Downing should all be in your thought process as well. Yakubu hasn't really had one of those crazy 30-point matches in a while and Sheffield United provide exactly the sort of stage that starts one of his positive fantasy runs. If that's the case then Downing and Euell are likely the two guys who will help make it happen. Sheffield United continue to have no players that fantasy managers should seriously consider.
Could someone please tell me how Watford's home match with Fulham was selected as the Monday Night match? Was there ever any situation that made this thing look appealing? Is the TV ratings system different in the UK? Do executives not really care about drawing an audience? Well, I guess it means I can feel good about watching something else on Monday. If I do watch (or TiVo) this one, it will be to see if fantasy must-have Ashley Young and Marlon King – Watford's dynamic duo and the two best players in this match – can break through and have the big match that both have been hinting at all season. Outside of those two and the possibility of my early season savior from last year – Collins John – there isn't much to recommend this one.
And the rest – If the world was a just place, Ameobi's goal would have been disallowed for the obvious offsides infraction and Tim Howard would have gotten his clean sheet and continued his early season rise from the depths of the bench at ManYoo. In OUR world, that didn't happen and Everton was pretty mediocre for fantasy managers last week. AJ had an off week with only Cahill and Arteta producing much. Again, those four should be in your consideration set with Cahill, AJ, and Howard at the top of the list as Everton host Joey Barton, Samaras, and their Man City teammates who you should be ignoring despite their performance last weekend.
Last and probably not least, Rovers host Wigan at Ewood Park. It may be that I'm running out of steam after a particularly long post but the only people I'm even a little bit excited about in this match are MGP if you're looking for a high-end midfielder and Bentley if you're looking on more of a budget.
Happy Shopping…
Thanks for the wonderful,insightful comment.May i know your opiniom on David Bentley who has been quite consistently racking up ~10pts/game and even more cost effective than some big "stars"?
ReplyDeleteThanks for the sharing! :P
Great post, but who on earth is K2?
ReplyDeleteHaha, you guys need to stop assuming everyone read last year's fantasy commentary. K2 = Adebayor.
ReplyDeleteI'm in for Doyle this week. He's averaging just a point and a half less than AJ per game espite score 2 fewer goals.
Anyone have an opinion on Routledge for this week? I'd probably have to dump one of my expensive players to get anyone better.
Kudos, Neal. I don't know how you write these posts but I sure enjoy reading them.
ReplyDeleteK2 is Adebayor. "Kanu 2"
Bentley has quietly been very good for Rovers. However Rovers have been REALLY inconsistent. But the home game should do them well, and he is a good pick -- though in the upper-7's he's not as cheap as some other options like Convey or Rosicky.
Doyle is an interesting pick. Reading @WHU is a good matchup as WHU don't keep clean sheets. Ever. But Reading next face CHE and other top teams, so Doyle (and Convey, Seol, Shorey) is a short term pick at best.
Routledge is interesting. He could be FUL's best attacking option, and now that they've gotten the CHE game behind them he's a decent bet. Wish he took more of the set pieces, but at least v CHE Quedrue had those honors.
btw, Neal -- 1,890 words!
ReplyDeleteWhat's next, a 4-hour, 35000 question chat?
one of the great things about traveling for work on a regular basis - being on a plane or train for 2 to 3 hours gives you a lot of time to write long posts and come up with the occasional insight. Now if only airplanes here would get wireless access I could actually check out the stats while I write...
ReplyDeleteSounds like we need to do a short hand post for the folks who haven't been with us for multiple seasons...
K2 = Adebayor because he resembles Kanu (version 2.0) and plays for Arsenal...
MGP = Mort Gamst Pedersen
RVP = Robin van Persie
SWP = Shawn Wright-Philips (not that you've had much need to know that this season)
EVDS or VDS = Van Der Sar
Phantom Points = things that don't show up on most match reports (intercepted passes, corners won, successful crosses, etc) but are of great benefit in the Yahoo fantasy game.
I disagree that Sheffield Utd have no fantasy points to offer. Middlesborough concede a lot of free kicks, so I'm betting that Chris Armstrong will earn some SC points. Paddy Kenny is a fine keeper - but he's recovering from injury and still slightly overpriced. Hulse is worth a look too, but that's only if he wins more fouls than he concedes, which is a toss-up.
ReplyDeleteI juggle my team quite a lot just about every week anyway, so short terms picks are a-ok with me! Especially with so many cheap and at least promising new strikers out there.
ReplyDeleteI think Armstrong is a good pick, but not sure about Hulse. Just don't see the end product from him.
ReplyDeleteWhat about Rochemback in this game? His a bit more expensive than he's worth perhaps. But if he's taking kicks for Boro...
j
NO LOVE FOR DANNY MURPHY?!
ReplyDeletewill ashley cole start for the game vs. villa? cause he didnt play at the CL game...how about shevchenko for the villa game??
ReplyDeleteI think Downing takes pretty much all the free kicks for Boro now.
ReplyDeleteAnyhow, what about Benni McCarthy. He had a brilliant game yesterday in the UEFA cup, and played well without scoring last weekend. He's at home against lousy Wigan. He's still cheap. Might he be a good bet?
Murphy seems an interesting pick as well.