Right, and Yet So Wrong...

Sort of a sad week for me really. I took the leap of faith that Yahoo would get the Wednesday match into the system eventually. I threw in a couple Liverpool players and even a NUFC player and what did I get for my efforts? Not much...not much at all. The ones I chose did fine, but I didn't go hard enough. Throw in Nikky Anelka's complete inability to crack the here-to-fore pourous Boro defense and the only bright spot in my weekend was Arsenal beating ManYoo at Old Trafford. Well, that, and I was in Jamaica for the weekend. Hopefully, I can enjoy my tan while trying to figure out how to creep back up the leader boards.

The most obvious thing to point out to fantasy managers is that Arsenal are entering a stretch of games where they SHOULD do very well. Sheffield United this week followed by @Charlton, Watford, and @Reading before they host an Everton squad that is one of the better stories in the Premiership so far this season. This should have you thinking strategically about how to get and keep a few Arsenal players for the next month or so. More on this later... The other theme for the week is the "Big Teams" (other than Liverpool) playing teams they are MUCH more talented than. Chelsea travels down the road to visit Bullard-less Fulham and Man United visit newly promoted (but frisky and in the 6th spot) Reading.

For those of you looking for some players who aren't "brand names" who are doing well so far this season I give you two divisions...I'll leave out the Zamora's and other players we've been yapping about here on the blog and try to give some love to some new guys...

Good Overall (not necessarily for fantasy purposes)
Seol, Reading - would be a great fantasy player if listed correctly as a midfielder but as a striker he probably won't score enough to make you really happy unless you need a really cheap solution. That said, he's been great for Reading.

Agbonlahor, Villa - very different player from Seol but also doing great work down the right side of midfield. Sadly, he won't make many fantasy rosters as a forward given his positioning as a midfielder.

King, Watford - I've watched them a few times this season and he always seems to be on the verge of doing something pretty impressive if he isn't ACTUALLY doing something pretty impressive. Not a great fantasy season so far but he's even with Sheva on points so far (raise your hands everyone who would have guessed that after 5 matches...hands down Mrs. King).

Good Fantasy Players (who might be good in reality but I haven't seen enough to tell)
Davis, Pompey - it isn't just the defenders and David James who have been doing well, 4 assists in five matches and a price under 7 is difficult to pass up for bargain shoppers even if you aren't quite sure you believe the Pompey hype just yet.

Mwaruwari, Pompey - Maybe this should just be the Pompey category but after a pretty sketchy year last year he's been lighting it up this season. It remains to be seen how minutes are worked out now that Lua2 is back but he's been doing the job for those who have him in the line-up.

Bentley, Rovers - He doesn't quite deliver as much as he should on the field but at a low price he's consistently racked up "Phantom Points" for fantasy managers.

Chelsea - Hard to imagine, another week where I give Didier Drogba a hard time and he scores a wonderful goal. It's almost like he and Jose Mourinho read the blog and do the exact opposite of what I predict. I'd consider any advice I give on the subject of Drogba to be suspect at best but you have to give him some love for the way he's been coming through so far this year. Moving on past my failed attempts to predict the playing time and fantasy performance of Drogba, we get to the West London derby.

I'm torn between generally staying away from derby matches (remember Fulham beat Chelsea in this fixture last season) and the fact that Chelsea are SO much more talented that this year's edition of Fulham. You have to consider Peter Cech (if you have the money), Ashley Cole, and Frank Lampard. If the tea leaves lead you to believe that Robben might actually get a start in Ballack's absence, then he is a reasonable option as well given a moderate price. Right now, I'm leaning towards Cole as my only Chelsea choice.

The Race for the Champions League - This category isn't really working out right now but I have faith that the creme will rise to the top (with the possible exception of Spurs who are about to replace Arsenal as the Champions League contender in the most early-season trouble).

Man United are traveling to Reading to face off with the 6th place Royals who have been an excellent fantasy buy so far this season. My guess is that the trend will go on hiatus this week. United obviously missed the creative influence Giggs has been providing but with Rooney having had a week to knock off the rush United will likely return to their dangerous ways against a modestly talented defense. Saha, Rooney, Evra/Silvestre (depending on injuries), and Ronaldo should all go into your consideration set. Ordinarily, I'd say Ronaldo is too expensive given the other options but I'd expect to see him in excellent form following his gifting of the lone goal to Arsenal over the weekend.

Speaking of the Gooners, this is the time to buy. As far as I can tell, Rosicky is taking the criticism of the media to heart and is going to take every opportunity to shoot the ball. This will lead to SOTs, Corners Won, and the occasional goal. Fabregas is getting better and better with each match. If you look at his stats, he's doing a lot of the little things for fantasy managers and with Arsenal likely to score more goals in the next month, he's likely to improve on his per match point total. The big question this weekend will be Henry. If he plays, you have to consider making room on your team for the run of poor teams this month. If you're not COMPLETELY sure, it's probably not worth the risk given the price. It's probably also time to think about Eboue if you have some money to spend on a defender.

Liverpool and Spurs face off in the other match in this category and you have to be impressed by Dirk Kuyt so far. He's looked lively and finally broke out vs. NUFC in midweek. He looks like someone you should find a way to include in your squad when Liverpool have a good match-up. Given that Spurs are the opponent this weekend, this might not be the best time to buy but if you want to make sure you get in early on a good buy, you should consider it. The other interesting attractions outside of the obvious (Gerrard) are the wing defenders in this match-up Aurellio, Assou-Ekotto, and Chimbonda. Only the latter is really expensive and all are performing well for fantasy managers - especially those who are looking to save their money for Mssr. Henry.

The Relegation Zone - With the exception of Reading, the teams that you'd expect are settling to the bottom. Even worse, they're playing some excellent opposition this week. We've already discussed Reading vs. ManYoo, Arsenal vs. Sheffield United, and Fulham vs. Chelsea - one wonders what there is to say about Wigan vs. Watford which has (repeat after me) all the makings of a relegation six-pointer. My prediction is that Watford's offense will break out a little bit here and that Ashley Young will have an excellent week and Marlon King will net at least one. If you're looking for something a little different to do with your line-up, King might be the choice over someone like AJ who will be traveling to a better opponent in NUFC. Not much on the Wigan side to like really. They're quickly becoming a poor man's Bolton based on their collective mediocrity as fantasy players.

Random Fantasy Notes - Aren't we all sorry we weren't there for MGP's break-out match? You knew it was coming but you didn't know when and the fact that it came in a week when others had a double meant very few likely had him...that said, he has a tendency to get on streaks so it may be time to get on board and let him carry you for a few weeks even with a trip to Boro this week. I'm less enthusiastic about Benni McCarthy given the road trip and Boro's newfound defensive competence...Pompey host the still-miserable-to-watch-even-with-Anelka Wanderers and you have to think the clean sheet streak will continue given Bolton's inability to, y'a know, score...Glen Johnson, David James, Mwaruwari and Davis are all candidates you should consider with Johnson being particularly interesting given his price and recent form...Not sure what to make of the new-look Hammers, they seem to have a lot more talent than last season but the spark seems to be missing, I'm still pulling for them but my fantasy manager side says to get off the bandwagon until there are some signs that they know who each other are on the field...For Man City, Beasley might be something of a poor man's SWP on the wing and Joey Barton seems to be on an excellent streak of his own that is likely to continue against the so-far mediocre Hammers defense...Newcastle host Everton and fantasy stars Tim Howard and AJ...if you're looking for a mid-tier midfielder then Arteta is an excellent option as well...on the NUFC side of the ball you have to think that Everton's mostly-tight defense will contain NUFC for the most part but that Scott Parker will continue to rack up the points as he patrols the midfield - seems like a bad week to go in for Duff or Milner given the opposition...Finally, perhaps the bargains of the week comes in the form of JP Angel and Stilian Petrov of Villa, they faces a poorly performing Charlton side at home and seem likely to produce fantasy points in quantity this weekend. Even better they're both dirt cheap with Angel being an especially good bargain at under 5. Almost a must if Henry is in your plans (health permitting, of course)

Happy Shopping and Be Sure to Check In On The Injuries on Friday...

7 comments:

  1. Anonymous10:16 PM

    Neal, Had you told me you were visiting us in Jamaica I would have rolled out the red carpet. Where did you stay?

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  2. Anonymous6:38 AM

    What's your take on this theory, get a cheap defender (let's say Shorey) who's up against Man U. He's dirt cheap, and likely to have a busy match, which could lead to some points.

    I'm not too sure about King though, he's up against Wigan, a tough match-up to predict imho.

    I'm glad Yahoo updated yesterday's midweek match though, I took the gamble and I racked up some serious points. A week total of 134, not too shabby I'd say.

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  3. Anonymous7:38 AM

    Personally, I do not like that approach (cheap defender against good team). First, you will most likely lose the clean sheet option, which a lot of the times is almost half of a defender's points. Second, more activity might lead to more tackles and blocked shots, etc, but also gives more opportunities for a yellow which would negate everything.

    If you want defenders who will have a lot to do and are cheap, look at the Liv v Tot matchup. Both teams are having trouble scoring and they both have a few cheap defenders if you are on a budget.

    ...but then again thats only my opinion

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  4. Anonymous11:43 AM

    who is MGP?

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  5. Anonymous12:34 PM

    Morten Gamst Pedersen

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  6. To Furious Fcuker - I was staying at Sandals in Negril - fantastic time although I really didn't get to see too much of the island - just a lot of sitting around on the beach, drinking, etc.

    I had a great time so I'll be trying to get back as soon as possible.

    Cheers - Neal

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  7. I agree with the 7:38 Anonymous comment - playing a defender on a team expected to be busy due to extremely talented opposition is a huge risk. The defender might be cheap but they not only risk yellow cards but also a lot of cheap fouls that will likely wipe out the points from passes intercepted, etc.

    Shorey is a nice bet if Reading are even or better to win because he gets you some offense but with a clean sheet unlikely and a ton of offense for Reading similarly unlikely, his best two chances for points are limited.

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