The Week Ahead - Season Kickoff Edition

I have to admit that I'm a little mentally fatigued from writing all of those season previews over the last couple of weeks but I have to say that after looking at all that information about all of those players, I feel as prepared for a season as I ever have been.  Given the level to which I've geeked out in the past, that's really saying something.  With The Fantasist having (ahem) co-opted many of the good ideas from this blog as well as some of the other independent blogs focused on the Yahoo fantasy game (Assistant Manager, Scout, etc) we have to keep ourselves ahead of the game.  With that in mind, I have some new wrinkles that we'll be introducing over the course of the season to help our readers stay ahead of those unenlightened types who don't care enough about their fantasy teams to find and consistently read our blog.



As those of you who have been with us for a while already know, it is something of a tradition for me to comment on one or a few random topics related to the fantasy game, the Premier League, and/or something else entirely unrelated before I get to the serious (or at least as serious as anything related to fantasy games can be) analysis.  For those of you who hate this, I suggest you get ready to scroll down.  For those of you who anticipate this as the best thing that you read in a given week, I'm sorry, let me know in the comments section and I'll suggest some links where you can read more interesting writers.  For those of you who enjoy these musings as a way to kill some time at work or home, I've got just the thing for you...

• Transfers, general - more so than most years, clubs seem to be leaving their dealings until very late.  It seems very likely that there will be more than a few big moves that happen after the season begins.  I know the FA doesn't control these things but it seems to me that what they do control is when the season starts and if I were a manager, I'd want to be sure that I had my entire team available for at least a week of training after the last transfer was done.  If they can't force the deadline back to mid-August then why can't they push the season back to the first weekend in September?  It seems sort of half-@ssed to have teams starting out the season with big deals still to be made;
• Transfers, specific - for those who don't read every sentence that we write here at the blog first of all, shame on you and second of all, here are some specific transfers (some rumored and some completely made up by us) that we think would make a lot of sense...
• Jo/RSC to Fulham - Fulham definitely need some depth and either of these guys would represent a change from the current make-up of the strikeforce at Craven Cottage.  Neither player is likely to play at Citeh this season;
• Sidwell to Wolves - I like the "getting the 2006/2007 Reading squad back together at Wolves" storyline that I just made up today when writing my Wolves Season Preview.  Sidwell is very available and why not bring him into a squad that could use some central midfield help?  OK, maybe because Sidwell has behaved a bit like an entitled child since the 2006/2007 season and hasn't really improved much and has perhaps regressed but still, why let that get in the way of a good storyline?
• Bentley to Villa - Villa find themselves very left-sided in midfield these days with Downing and Ashley Young presumably their wingers and Milner/Ireland interchangeable as central midfielders.  Assuming there is plenty of cash left over from the Milner/Ireland swap, Villa would do well to find a quality right-sided midfielder to balance the field for the first time since Milner was moved infield.  Bentley is the best available option and it certainly seems unlikely that he's going to consistently unseat Lennon at Spurs;
• Bellamy to Somewhere in the Prem - there are a lot of destinations where he'd make sense - Birmingham, Villa, Bolton, Fulham, Sunderland, Stoke, Rovers, Wolves, and the promoted teams to name half the league.  I can't say I'd want to spend the day with him but the league is more interesting with him in it (and starting) than without him;
• SWP to Rovers - like Villa, another side in need of some balance between the wings and another player on a deep roster unlikely to see the pitch too often.  I'm sure the finances to match up but it certainly seems like it would make some sense from a playing standpoint if they did;
• Others? Please feel free to add some of your own if you've been wondering about moves that should happen for the sake of player, selling club, and buying club (which is why I didn't include Hart/Given/Friedel/Schwarzer to Arsenal in the list because that doesn't make sense for the selling club in any of those cases);
• Recent News - Stuff that's happened since we wrote some of the earlier Season Previews...
• Welbeck to Sunderland has a lot of promise as there should be time at striker available since Campbell has never really seemed to convince Steve Bruce as a starter;
• Harewood to Blackpool means that they at least have one striker who anyone has heard of which can only help - the question is whether it can help nearly enough to make them anything other than a disaster waiting to happen;
• Collins and Cuellar out for Villa's opener - hard to know what we're going to get from Villa but Davies may be value if he overcomes his own minor knock;
• Carvalho to Real makes sense for the long run for Chelsea where he was clearly less popular with Ancelotti than with Mourinho but it certainly leaves CHE lean at CB with Terry fading quickly and Alex injured to start the season - Luiz (or someone) had better arrive quickly or CHE will be almost Arsenal-thin at CB for the first half of the season;

OK, I guess that's enough bullet-list rambling for one post.  On to the analysis of this week's schedule and roster options...

Schedule
For this season, we're instituting a "vs. Blackpool" category until such time as they prove that they're somehow better than what looks to be a pretty miserable roster.  When Blackpool are on the road, the home team will almost automatically get favored status.  When Blackpool are at home, we'll have to see but certainly the better teams will still be heavily favored.  This week's vs. Blackpool team is Wigan who play host to the presumed 20th place finisher.  Overall Wigan have some decent attacking players (Yayga and N'zog) and some promising newcomers (Boselli and Stam) and all should double as strong prospects this weekend.

Other favorable match-ups are Chelsea hosting WBA on their return to the Premier League, ManYoo hosting Newcastle on their return and Villa hosting an all-over-the-place WHU side.  As far as matches to stay away from in general - the season kick-off between Citeh and Spurs as well as the Liverpool vs. Arsenal match-ups both look like they'll present less value than managers would hope for from Top 6 teams.

Forwards

• Rooney and Drogba - both have great match-ups at home but both have question marks - Rooney about his form after a dismal World Cup and Drogba about his fitness after not starting in the pre-season.  Drogba probably has both more upside (could easily see a hat trick) and more downside (could be left out with an easy match against WBA).  You just have to figure out what your risk profile is.  If you can do both, more power to you;
• Chamakh - with RvP still recovering full fitness after his World Cup exertions and the attacks likely much more potent than the defenses in the Liverpool vs. Arsenal match-up the debutant seems like he should be excellent value and as close to a "must have" as is available at forward;
• Yayga - best striker on a team hosting Blackpool and the price isn't too crazy - seems like a winning formula to me;
• Boselli - the inexpensive unknown quantity with big upside on a team hosting Blackpool - if you need the money that you would have spent on Yayga elsewhere, then this is the best way to get in on the vs. Blackpool action;
• Carew - I'd throw Agbonlahor in here if I were more certain about his hamstring but Carew represents better value anyway so with West Ham's shady defense as the opener, you have to like a striker under 8.5 who could get a brace;
• N'gog - With Arsenal's back line thin to say the least and Torres still short of fitness, N'gog is a strong bargain.  I wouldn't get too excited based on his pre-season exploits given the level of competition but still there are much worse directions you could go;
• Jovanovic - I don't know what to make of this one - he seems likely to get a start with the lack of wide players available at Liverpool and on the same logic as N'gog you might want to take a chance but we generally frown on midfielders listed as forwards even if they're cheap so I'll leave it up to you to get carried away by the good feelings at Anfield and the worry over the Arsenal defense or to stick with the rules;

Midfielders

• Lampard - yeah, his World Cup may have been pretty rotten and he may be slowly losing out to Malouda as the best midfielder on his own team but even as he declines slightly he's one of the best midfielders in the fantasy game and he starts the season off with an easy match-up.  Clearly the best of the premium-priced (16.00 and up) midfielders;
• Malouda - he's been on the rise for the last 12 months and I expect that to continue as Chelsea emerge as a high scoring group.  If you think he'll improve on last year's stats then he's not a bad buy at all at just over 13 to start the season.  Certainly makes sense based on the match-up;
• N'Zogbia - with today's rumor that N'zog was going to hand in a transfer request we all have to be wondering if he'll feature come the weekend.  If he does, the match-up with Blackpool makes him look like solid value.  If there isn't a strong "he's going nowhere" statement from Martinez then things get thrown into at least some doubt;
• Milner/Ireland - if only we knew for sure when this would happen.  I'd be on Ireland at home against WHU (playing for Villa) in a second but it seems unlikely to happen.  Likewise, I'd even be interested in Milner at that price against the Hammers but if the move is going to happen and just isn't finalized he seems unlikely to start against WHU and jeopardize the move;
• Silva - the match-up with Spurs isn't an ideal opener but I'm of the opinion that with him you put him in your line-up and just keep him there unless he starts getting rotated or he's injured;
• MPet - Home to Fulham isn't a bad way to start of the "rebirth of MPet" who, when he started regularly for Citeh, was worth well more than his current price;
• JCole - I know I said above to avoid the Liverpool/Arsenal match to some extent but I mostly meant to avoid spending on premium players who you NEED to have big games for you (Gerrard, Arsh, etc.) because of the amount spent - JCole is pretty cheap and if this is a shootout, he should return his value pretty easily. Once again, didn't like the move for Liverpool but liked it for fantasy;
• Adam - Is he going to be the only source of points for a bad team, the Muzzy Izzet if you will? If so, he's not a bad buy even if his team is going to be beaten on a regular basis and it isn't like @Wigan is the scariest match-up ever conceived of;

Defenders

• Kolarov - Attacking-oriented defenders are never a bad idea even if the match-up makes it much less likely that he'll be getting any CS points - seems like a no-brainer to me; 
• JBoat - We liked his brother last year and we hope to like him this year - that said, I'm not sure that he's as attack-oriented as Kolarov (or as The Fantasist indicated in his "Top Newcomers" post) - still starting wing defender for a Top 6 team for cheap = fantasy consideration every week;
• Fabio - With Evra being worked back slowly it looks likely that Fabio will start for United in their opener against NUFC which would be great value for fantasy managers even if he isn't quite the player his twin brother is yet;
• Koscielny - Seems unlikely that Arsenal will get a clean sheet so this is more likely a strong "Barn Door" choice for Week 2 than it is a first week pick but still worth considering if you're looking for inexpensive defenders likely starting for good teams;
• Stam - vs. Blackpool strikes again as we add Wigan's new (and cheap) right back to our list of strong options;
• Ferriera - With the exit of Carvalho and the injury to Alex we know that JT and Ivanovic will be the pairing in the middle of the defense.  That should leave Ferriera to start on the right at a much lower price (6.11) than fellow wing defender Ashley Cole - if you have the money by all means go after ACole but if you're looking for stronger value, look to a rejuvinated Ferriera against inferior competition;
• Evans - Rio is out and Evans will deputize at about 2.00 less than it will cost you to get Vidic - not a bad deal if you have some money to spend on a defender;
• Davies -  With Cuellar and Collins out Curtis Davies should be all set for a start in the middle with Dunne if he can make it back from his own injury, you could do worse than looking at him as an inexpensive option who will start with a good match-up;

Keepers

• EvdS - With Cech a "maybe" EvdS is the best, most certain option among premium keepers.  If we get definitive word on Cech vs. Hillario then whichever it is enters the picture either as a premium or discount keeper;
• Kirkland - Cheap and home to a Blackpool side whose best option at striker is Marlon Harewood who has been with the club for all of about 5 minutes - seems like a solid bet 3.81 if you don't want to spend on a keeper;

We'll hope to get to some of the injury (Cech/Hilario, Drogba, Agbonlahor) and selection (Given/Hart, Arsenal starters) issues tomorrow with Injuries and Suspension.

Looking forward to another great season.