After the Window: Chelsea

I apologize for the delay in getting past the first team transfer summary.  We are using the international break for a nice rustic vacation in Maine.  I’ve been trying to generally stay away from the internet, email, and the other things that I tend to use for both my day job as well as staying up with current events in the Premier League and posting to the blog.  That lasted for a solid 3 days before I felt the pull of the laptop – I guess that’s why I’ve gotten involved in writing a blog on top of a day job. 

As it appears that I’m not going to get to every team, I’m going to start with the ones that have made the most substantial changes and move downward toward the ones that didn’t do much toward the end of window.  Since we’ve already covered Arsenal, I’ll move on to Chelsea.

I LOVED what Chelsea did toward the end of the window.  They had the type of window that Arsenal used to have.  Pick up a few very high end kids and throw in a very strong continental veteran.  The difference?  The price of the high end kids that used to be Arsenal’s stock and trade has increased by a factor of about ten since this was Wenger’s strategy.  I don’t know all the details but my guess is that Chelsea ended up paying Mata and Lukaku (and their previous clubs) like they were already established stars rather than rising talents with the potential to be the “next” someone good.   The economics aside, the moves look excellent.  The only downside is that they probably won’t payoff in huge measure for another couple years. 

Season Preview - Chelsea

Quick Reminder, Real Life

Sort of an odd season at Stamford Bridge wasn’t it. Never REALLY in the race for first but never REALLY out of it either. The Blues big names down the spine of the formation - Drogba, Lampard, John Terry, Ashley Cole, Essien and Cech - were all less than their best for varying reasons but all were still above average Premier League players when they played. The names brought in to supplement that core also had their ups and downs. Florent Malouda had a great first half but only an adequate second half. Anelka and Kalou were effective in spells and invisible over other spells. Ramires wasn’t ready. Mikel may never be ready. Big winter signings Torres and Luiz cost a lot of money with mixed results at best. Luiz was by far the better of the two although he seemed to have a penchant for making one big mistake per match. Torres was an unmitigated disaster. Chelsea are clearly a team between “generations” of players with half a roster of players heading toward the downside of their careers a few decidedly on the upside and precious few healthy and at their prime. It just wasn’t enough to compete with United.

Quick Reminder, Fantasy

You expect a lot from Chelsea players when it comes to fantasy. Lots of goals, lots of clean sheets, and expensive prices. Of note, FloMal was one of the best players going for the first two months of the season. Drogba closed the season very well. Luiz scored some goals which will be a great addition to defending points if he can settle down a bit, hold on to a place in the starting line-up, and avoid the bad cards and fouls in the box. Anelka degraded throughout the course of the season leaving us to wonder what his fate will be this coming season.

Summer Changes

Festive

It's odd that the fantasy football schedule is so busy at the moment, yet I feel so disconnected from it. Being at home, and not sitting at a computer for nine hours a day means I'm not plugged in to every story, rumour and gossip that comes across the wires. With family commitments and the chance to take a four-hour bike ride up the coast yesterday, I missed the big Boxing Day fixtures as well as any chance to pick up players on the Barn Door.

But because the schedule is so packed, there's every opportunity to get back into the swing of things.  Today is the big Chelsea-Arsenal clash.  I'll be watching the returns (most likely) of Robin van Persie and Frank Lampard as they are highly under-valued in the fantasy game compared to their historical pricing.

Then the next round of matches starts up tomorrow, so don't forget to set your team.  We'll be looking at the team news and trying to bring you any information.  But just remember that with two matches in as many days for teams there is always the risk of rotation.  And unannounced rest and rotation at that.

For what it's worth, my squad at the moment (subject to change) is:

PRobbo

Kolarov Coleman Jara

Van Der Vaart Nani Brunt* Pennant Tchoyi Lampard***

Torres Saha** Welbeck

* Brunt is suspended, and near cost, so he's unlikely to stay in the team long.
**  Read my thoughts below.
*** Over-thinking Arsenal in the comment below.

Malouda fit for Liverpool trip

UPDATE:  Here's Ancelotti's quote, from Soccernet.com:

"I can give you nine men: Cech, Ivanovic, Alex, Terry, Cole, Mikel, Zhirkov, Anelka, Drogba. Malouda or Kalou, Essien or Ramires," Ancelotti said.

So FloMa is 50/50 with Kalou and Ramires is challenging Essien's spot, not Zhirkov's.

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Premier League - Malouda fit for Liverpool trip - Yahoo! Eurosport

Chelsea's top scorer Florent Malouda will be fit to face Liverpool this weekend despite manager Carlo Ancelotti claiming on Thursday that he was injured.

The Italian backtracked from his earlier analysis on Friday, in which he said the ankle injury sustained in the win over Blackburn last week would keep the Frenchman sidelined.

"Malouda is available to play, he has recovered very well" said the Chelsea boss, adding that the striker would be in the starting line-up.

Ancelotti also changed his mind over the fitness of Frank Lampard, who had been expected to be fit in time for the trip to Anfield.

"He is not available for this game, we have to take time again," said Ancelotti. "Next week finally he will be ready.

File this under "make up your damn mind, but thanks for the heads up".

Alex Back; Ramires and Lampard out

ALEX BACK FOR BLACKBURN | Latest Chelsea News | Team & Transfer News | Chelsea FC | Chelsea

Ramires and Frank Lampard remain sidelined for this weekend's fixture, but Alex returns to the line-up after a four-week layoff.

The defender has not played since smashing in the second goal against Arsenal on October 3, but will partner John Terry in the centre of defence against Blackburn on Saturday afternoon.

Yay! Another week with Zhirkov at a cheap defender playing in midfield!

Drogba fit to face Wolves

Premier League - Drogba fit to face Wolves - Yahoo! Eurosport

Didier Drogba looks set to return to lead the Chelsea attack against struggling Wolves on Saturday, but Frank Lampard will have to wait a bit longer for his comeback - much to the frustration of the England midfielder.

Ivory Coast international Drogba has missed the Blues' last two matches because of a virus but has now resumed full training ahead of the visit of Mick McCarthy's side, third bottom of the Premier League.

Lampard, though, is expected to need more recovery time following his hernia operation which has seen the 32-year-old out of action since August 28.

Ramires Returns to England

RAMIRES JOINS THE INJURY LIST | Latest Chelsea News | Team & Transfer News | Chelsea FC | Chelsea

Carlo Ancelotti will be without Ramires for the Spartak Moscow game, after the midfielder picked up a knock on his ankle in Saturday's goalless draw with Aston Villa.

The Brazilian travelled to Russia but will not be fully recovered in time and will return to England for treatment, where he will join Alex, Jose Bosingwa, Didier Drogba and Frank Lampard.

Despite these absences Ancelotti feels he will be able to field a strong side against Spartak in the Luzhniki Stadium, and is buoyed by the return of Salomon Kalou, who trained with his team-mates on the artificial surface on a chilly Moscow Monday.

This doesn't sound like a serious injury, and if Lampard can return for the Wolves match it won't be a serious loss for Chelsea. However, should neither player recover in time it might be a boost for fantasy managers. Next in line would be Yuri Zhirkov, who in the Yahoo! game is listed as a bargain basement defender.

For me, this is especially interesting as my current cheap defender is Jerome Boateng who limped out of the match as City limped past Blackpool. We'll have to see how severe the injury was - or it might have been whiplash from tracking Blackpool's runners all match - but either way his place looks to be in doubt with Richards returning and replacing him.

Late Injury Post

OK, I'm finally back where I can post to the blog so here are some broader comments than what I was able to get out this morning at the crack of dawn here on the East Coast of the US. First things first, the link to the consolidated SoccerNet listing of injuries, suspensions, and players coming back.

Out

• Drogba - We covered it earlier. Out with an illness. Kalkuta seems to be the fill-in which makes him (Kalkuta) at least somewhat interesting.
• Cesc, RvP, Sagna, Verm, Koscielny, Ramsey - The list is getting shorter with Walcott and Bendtner coming back into the frame. With so many key contributors out or in question, I'm going to be very careful about picking any of Arsenal's expensive players. Just hard to know if they'll be worth the money.
  
• Duff and Etuhu - Duff is always a question mark and rarely worth the price but many have had Etuhu as an "enabler" so worth noting that you'll be getting less than usual (his one goal-scoring match aside) if you decide to keep him.
• Spurs CBs - Hard to have much of an idea what's going to go on there with so many coming back from injury (Gallas and Kaboul) or questionable with long-standing injuries (King).
  
• Ben Arfa - I didn't think anyone forgot that he was hurt given the nature of the injury but a solid reminder that Barton should be back to taking the vast majority of kicks with HBA sidelined.
• Agbonlahor - You weren't going to pick him vs. Chelsea (I don't think) but he's out so you don't have to worry about it. Chelsea's defenders/Cech go up in value because they're much better equipped to deal with Carew/Heskey than they are the speedy Agbonlahor.
• Fellaini - A yellow card magnet in a derby match with a ton on the line? Not a likely selection anyway but worth pointing out anyway
• Jagielka/Pienaar - Also just a reminder

In Doubt

• Odemwingie - I hate giving him up but with his participation in question and the opposition strong(ish) it seems like the logical thing to do. Best case, he comes on as a sub, doesn't do much and his prices comes down a bit.
  
• Theo/Bendtner - They're in the squad but seem unlikely to start so proceed with caution.
  
• Darren Bent - He is called a "major doubt" and Bruce mentioned that he thought that Gyan could fill Bent's spot reasonably well. Definitely makes Gyan a potentially interesting option if you're looking for an inexpensive striker who is better than di Santo.
  

Lampard still out for Blues

Sky Sports | Football | Premier League | News | Lampard still out for Blues

Chelsea have confirmed midfielder Frank Lampard is still at least a fortnight away from returning to first-team action.

Lampard has been sidelined since undergoing hernia surgery at the end of last month which saw him miss England's opening Euro 2012 qualifiers....

The 32-year-old will now be unavailable for Tuesday's European clash at home to Marseille and Sunday's London derby with Arsenal at Stamford Bridge.

The Blues have also revealed that Lampard will not be ready to feature in England's next Euro 2012 qualifier against Montenegro on 12th October...

It therefore appears likely that Lampard will be in contention for a recall for the 16th October trip to Aston Villa.

The Week Ahead - Season Kickoff Edition

I have to admit that I'm a little mentally fatigued from writing all of those season previews over the last couple of weeks but I have to say that after looking at all that information about all of those players, I feel as prepared for a season as I ever have been.  Given the level to which I've geeked out in the past, that's really saying something.  With The Fantasist having (ahem) co-opted many of the good ideas from this blog as well as some of the other independent blogs focused on the Yahoo fantasy game (Assistant Manager, Scout, etc) we have to keep ourselves ahead of the game.  With that in mind, I have some new wrinkles that we'll be introducing over the course of the season to help our readers stay ahead of those unenlightened types who don't care enough about their fantasy teams to find and consistently read our blog.

Season Preview: Chelsea

Overall Outlook - It's been a pretty quiet off-season for the Champions with some fringe players with bigger names than games (JCole, Ballack, Deco, etc.) moving on and some less high-profile names (Ramires and Benayoun) coming in.  The veteran team also got a year older which has to be of some concern but certainly not to the point where you expect any of their big names to have a significant drop.  You just can't expect that many of them will improve and should expect slightly reduced performance and perhaps a few more injuries from players like Frank Lampard, John Terry, Ricardo Carvalho (if he sticks around), and Ashley Cole. That said, these are the reigning champions and neither of their closest competitors for last season's title - ManYoo and Arsenal - have made a significant step forward so you have to expect Chelsea to be the favorites unless ManCiteh make an unexpected huge step forward.  Seems like old times with a professional, unexciting, Ancelotti-led squad marching inexorably toward the title with a string of 2-1 and 1-0 wins being chased by a high-risk, high-reward, Mancini-led squad providing entertaining football but losing too many points to their inability to keep the ball out of the net while inexplicably losing the occasional 3-0 disaster to an inferior team. 

IMPORTANT: New Season Has Started - Bargains Available

UPDATE: Y! has hit reboot and the game now has the proper valuations. You'll have to start over building a team, but at least you'll be doing it for real this time.

http://uk.premiership.fantasysports.yahoo.com/football/

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I'll make this quick since there is quite possibly a time-sensitivity to this information.  The new season of Yahoo! Fantasy Premier League Football has been opened up.  We look forward to everyone joining in on both the game and all of our fun over here at the blog. 

The most important thing for you all to know is that the prices are a bit crazy right now.  Here are the most obvious bargains if you don't want to search yourself...

1.00 - Friedel, Hart, Given, van der Sar, Defoe, Dempsey, AJ, and others
3.93 - JT, Gerrard
5.35 - Vidic, Verm, Bale
Under 10 - Elk (7 and change), Lamps (8 and change), RvP (8 and change)

Those are just some of the names out there available to you at incredibly cheap prices.  I have written to the guys who run the game at Yahoo because this is potentially setting things up for a very ugly year of fantasy football if some people get in on the low prices and others don't.  I don't know what they'll do about it but my first action was to build the team I wanted with the crazy prices.  You know, just in case.

Plenty of season preview materials to come between now and the start of the season.

Cheers - Neal

England vs. USA Part 4: This Time It's Personal...

The Spirit of '50

You may have read somewhere in your history books that the US has faced off against England a number of times throughout history.  In most of those encounters, the Yanks have been prohibitive underdogs.

The Revolutionary War (1776) - granted we had home field advantage in this one but if there were bookmakers in international conflicts at this point in history we would have looked a lot like North Korea going up against Brazil in the opening round of this World Cup.  No chance.  As it turns out, we did slightly better than expected.

The War of 1812 (well, 1812) - Washington, DC was burned to the ground and my soon-to-be hometown of Leesburg, VA (a bucolic town about 30 miles up the Potomac River) was briefly the center of government for the United States.  That said, home field advantage still held and we actually built a winning steak against the highly favored Brits.  Let's just say that we became their "bogey team" well before they started losing grip of their empire.

1950 World Cup - Could the magic hold when we didn't hold a decided home field advantage? Well, in 1950 we produced an incredible upset that, until we hosted the Cup in 1994 and started what I like to think of as the modern era of US involvement in the world's game, was without question the high water mark for US Soccer.  It may still be the single greatest accomplishment in the US game but since 1994, we've certainly had our share of moments that at least approach it (draw vs. Italy in 2006, beating Spain in Confederations Cup, etc.).

Since 1950, there have been friendlies between the two countries but there haven't been many moments that mattered.  The friendly matches have, as you might expect, been dominated by the more talented English squads.  So, where does all of this leave us? Well, I'm not a huge fan of sequels but let's see how this one is likely to play out...

The Week Ahead

Funny that on today of all days, SAF was asked questions about whether the group stages of the Champions League were just a cash grab or if there was any purpose behind them.  Well, I have to say that for FC Zurich there is without a doubt a purpose behind the group stages.  In the same way that every American who was present for the World Cup draw against eventual champions Italy in 2006 will never forget it because of the quality of the opponents (and because we were jobbed out of the deserved victory) - Zurich supporters will not forget their famous win over AC Milan at the San Siro today.  OK, maybe Milan aren't the team they have been in years past but Zurich have NEVER been that club so a win over the famous Italians on their home turf is a big deal.

The cynics who talk about the futility of supporting a team that has no chance to win the title (whether we are talking about the Premier League, Champions League, or any other sporting endeavor) simply don't get it.  For all of the Manchester United supporters (regardless of what you think about their "right" to support the Red Devils) there may be championships but there is mostly disappointment - not winning every year, not winning every week, not winning by enough, not winning with enough style - you get the idea.  Think about the fact that supporters of FC Zurich or Burnley have already had one of their best years ever.  Burnley was promoted to the Prem and then they beat ManYoo.  My guess is that they'll be talking about this year for years and years.  Meanwhile, ManYoo supporters - despite winning last season and being in first position now - have bemoaned the loss of CRon, been concerned with the composition of their squad, and NOT won the Champions League.  In short ManYoo supporters have had something of a forgettable 2009.

Just something to think about the next time you're questioning your choice to follow a team that doesn't contend for honors every season.  Keep your expectations reasonable and enjoy it when your club far exceeds those expectations and know that your counterparts who support far more fashionable clubs won't be able to do the same.

OK, on to the analysis...

The Week Ahead

So, apparently my choice to keep Shay Given wasn't the greatest ever. Who saw Darren Fletcher scoring a brace coming ahead of time? If it had been Rooney scoring more than the one, I'd have been completely good with Given's performance but it wasn't to be. A very interesting weekend though. It would appear that ManYoo will have trouble defending their title. Assuming that injuries don't make a major impact on what comes next then Chelsea will be a cut above ManYoo, Arsenal, Liverpool, and Citeh. I can't say I have much of a feel for which of those four clubs will fall out of the Big Four. Here's something to think about before you answer - which teams are the most dependent on one or two players and therefore the most likely to be impacted by injury?

Maybe I'm just being biased and finding scenarios that are advantageous to Arsenal but I have a hard time seeing ManYoo doing anything of note if they lost Rooney for an extended stretch (which wouldn't be a shock given his injury history). Ditto Liverpool if they lost either Nando or Gerrard (and do any of us have a hard time envisioning Nando getting hurt again?). I'm perfectly willing to admit that neither Arsenal nor Citeh have a single player who is as consistently good as Rooney (this year), Gerrard, and Nando have been. What they do have in place of consistent stars are a bunch of well-above-average players. For instance, I could easily see Arsenal doing just fine (again) if Cesc, Arshavin, or RvP were to go down and obviously Citeh were very competitive with K2, Robinho, and Tevez either out or at something less than full strength.

Does this mean ManYoo or Liverpool should be the odds on favorites to miss the Champions League spots? Of course not. What it does mean is that they are likely more vulnerable than you think. They could get lucky and be relatively injury-free for the entire season (it happens). If they're not though, it could become clear very quickly which team won't make the grade.

OK, here is the in no way clunky transition from my opening ramble/rant to the analysis of the week ahead in fantasy footie... after the jump.

The Week Ahead

You'll have to excuse me if my heart hasn't exactly calmed back down after Arsenal's first 5 minutes in Belgium today. The only thing that kept me even close to sane was switching back over to the "headline match-up" between Inter and Barca - if ever there was a match that could lower your heart rate then this was it. I believe my one sort-of word summary of it to Jeremy over instant message was "zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz" (although I probably had a few more z's in there). It is why, despite my respect for the accomplishments of both, I really can't stand either Serie A teams or Jose Mourinho. Both have been incredibly effective over time but that doesn't make me any more interested in spending 2 hour increments of my life watching them.

Speaking of Arsenal-related stories (as I so often do), here's my take on the Citeh loss last weekend. All of the summer talk in the press and among the supporters was about the need for more defenders and a better holding midfielder. While I'd never turn down additional help at either position, somehow the big gap between the pipes never really came up. Almunia wasn't entirely responsible for Arsenal's demise but he certainly didn't help and could be classified as a decidedly negative influence on the outcome as far as the visitors were concerned.

Now, you might think that this was about to set me off on a rant about Wenger or Arsenal's financial situation. Instead of that, I'm going to ask a more basic question about the value of goalkeepers. Why is it that players so able to influence the outcome of a match are so undervalued? I don't have specific statistics on goalkeeper transfer fees but if you consider that the value in strikers is that they can turn a match by putting the ball in the net then why wouldn't a keeper who can turn a match by keeping that same ball OUT of the net be equally valuable? The fact that Given, Schwarzer, Friedel, and Howard have all switched teams for a combined sum of less than what Spurs paid for David Bentley to sit on the bench for the last year and a half. If any of those gentlemen were at Arsenal you'd have to think that Arsenal would have at least 4 points for their travels to Manchester the last two weeks rather than having nothing to show for those two trips.

The final point in my pre-analysis digression is a reference to the famous baseball book "Moneyball". I won't talk about the baseball part of the book but the underlying lesson was that for someone trying to build a sports team on a limited budget, the best approach is to figure out what skill or set of skills other teams are under-valuing and then invest in those skills as opposed to investing scarce resources in the same traits that everyone else is paying (or even over-paying) for. My point? If you're Arsenal and you're financially challenged compared to your rivals or you're a bottom of the table team without any oil money attempting to bring you up to the top - why aren't you investing heavily in an excellent keeper at £5 million as opposed to trying to compete for a slightly better-than-average midfielder like Stuart Downing at £12 million? What would you rather have? Brad Friedel and £7 million in the bank or Downing? Granted, the same team ended up with both but what would you consider the better use of money?

OK, enough of my ranting, on to the analysis of the upcoming week in Fantasy Footie, after the jump.

Bet They're Wishing They'd Signed Ribery Last Month...

Football365 | All The News | Football News | BLUES BUYS BANNED UNTIL 2011

Chelsea have been banned from registering any new players for the next two transfer windows after FIFA found them guilty of inducing a French teenager to breach his contract with another club.

Gael Kakuta, 18, joined Chelsea from Lens two years ago but the French club lodged a complaint with the sport's world governing body.

Now FIFA's dispute resolution chamber (DRC) has ruled that Kakuta breached his contract with Lens and that Chelsea induced him to do so.

Talk about some stunning news from out of nowhere.  Either the editors at Football365 are having some fun with us in the wake of the transfer window closing and their being no more sensational stories of immediate interest or FIFA have over-reacted to something that doesn't seem to merit it.

Don't get me wrong, I'm sort of giddy at the notion of Chelsea not being able to throw their cash around in January or next Summer but isn't this entirely on the player?  A club can't force a player to breach a contract, they can only suggest it and facilitate it by being willing to sign a player who has made that decision.  You can argue that in signing the player, they have acted unethically but it seems minor in contrast to the type of "tapping up" that goes on all the time - Real Madrid being the masters. 

Is this FIFA finally finding a way to hit back at Chelsea for buying success as opposed to building it organically the way they perceive Real, Bacra, Milan, ManYoo, and Arsenal have done?  Is it just that there is more of a paper trail than there ever is in any of the alleged "tapping up" situations? 

Regardless, just a bizarre thing to wake up to this morning.  Even more so when you think about how old Chelsea's current squad is and the impact that not refreshing their talent base might have if any of their main cogs (Lamps, JT, Drogs, Elk) fall off significantly between now and January 2011 when they can next buy players.

The Week Ahead - Week 3

We here at Blog Central have always enjoyed the notion of getting on the bandwagon of specific players early. Those of you who have been reading know that we were high on Ashley Young before Watford and Young made their Premier League debut. We were on Dean Ashton as he came on with Norwich. We were on Milner before he was on the outside of the England squad. We had you invested in John Pantsil from Week 1 last season. You get the idea. Now, not all of our faves pan out but we seem to be right more often than not. It is with this in mind that I bring you the latest addition to our 2009-2010 bandwagon. Joining Yayga (that's Rodallega for those who haven't been participating in the live chats over the weekend), Milijas, and Jordi Gomez is...

...wait for it...

...Hull striker Jozy Altidore!

OK, for those of you following the blog here in the US, this doesn't come as much of a shock. Throw in

1) a healthy dose of patriotism,
2) seeing him lots of times against CONCACAF competition,
3) the hope for an evolutionary Brian McBride/the American Drogba,
4) my reaction to his first match and change (sub appearance with an assist and a near miss last weekend and a goal in midweek in Carling Cup action), and
5) a cheap price

and you have the perfect recipe for me to get really excited for the Jozy-at-Hull era. I'm thinking Zaki-at-Wigan early last season without the attitude problems and injury issues. With any luck Yuri Zhirkov will get healthy and will join the rest of our bandwagon crew in enabling us to have 3 or more of Rooney, Drogba, Lampard, Gerrard, Cesc, and a decent defence without completely gutting the fantasy squad. In any event, consider yourselves in on the big secret from America if you weren't already. This kid is young, as physically gifted as anyone who has ever come out of CONCACAF, and has already started performing on big stages (see his goal against Spain in the Confederations Cup leading to the US win).

One two notes before we get to the analysis...

1) I want to compliment the overall bad@ss-ness of those who have joined our Private Groups. I'm at about 3500 in the overall standings which in most years is good for the top one or two percent. In our private groups, I'm no higher than 24th out of 100. (24th in Beat the Bloggers 5; 31st in BtB 3; and 35th in BtB 1). I'd like to think that our advice has something to do with the high quality of the scores in these groups. Regardless of the truth in that statement, I'm going to go on thinking that to make myself feel better about the fact that I'm not doing better in those groups.

2) We here at the blog would like to say a fond farewell to Dean Ashton who is going to retire due to the effects of his ankle injury. As was mentioned above, we've been on that particular bandwagon for as long as there has been such a bandwagon (OK, mostly it was me). I particularly liked the combination of skill and power in his game and am bummed that we will be deprived of seeing him come into his prime.

OK, on to the analysis...

Schedule
So, the big question is what to make of Burnley after consecutive upsets of ManYoo and Everton? On the road...at Stamford Bridge...I'm not willing to give them the same credit. I doubt they'll get crushed as they've been stout in the back but I don't think Chelsea will share the fate of their Top 6 brethren from last season.

Elsewhere, high-flying Spurs have a favorable match-up with Brum traveling to the Lane. Citeh will take their shiny new defence to Fratton Park to face a decimated Pompey side that is likely to struggle to contain mid-table attacks let alone Citeh's array of stars. I'm not sure what to make of the Wolves/Hull match-up other than that it puts players from both sides into contention.

Liverpool's visit to Bolton is attractive for the Reds on paper but outside of Gerrard it's hard to get too excited about their prospects based on the results this far - especially on the road.

The rest of the match-ups are fairly even with players from neither side being more attractive than usual based on the opponent. This doesn't mean that they aren't attractive at all, just that you shouldn't go "all in" for ManYoo players with Arsenal coming to Old Trafford (or the reverse).

Remember now, the below is only taking into consideration current market prices. If you have players way below current market value we trust that you'll know enough to keep them if it is really a bargain that will pay off in future weeks (Drogba at 10) as opposed to one that isn't likely to be worth the wait.

Strikers
Best Value Striker of the Week:If you go with the match-ups then I think I have a surprise pick for you this week in Robbie Keane. He's on the edge of being a premium striker but he's definitely an inexpensive option compared to the likes of Rooney, Drogba, RvP, and even K2. Second place in this category is Tevez who continues to be enticing at a relatively low price but in what should be a prolific attack against poor competition. That said, Tevez has also produced very little thus far this season so beware. Other options include Yayga against struggling Everton who have to be demoralized from the sale of Lescott and will be returning from a Europa Cup trip to the Czech Republic.

Best Premium Striker of the Week: Hard to choose between K2 and Drogba in this category given early season performances and this weekend's match-ups. I'd give a slight advantage to K2 because he is more prone to scoring in bunches and doing it against inferior opposition. That said, Drogba is a little less expensive so we can call this pretty close to a wash. Robinho is also interesting here based on his propensity for scoring phantom points even when he doesn't actually score (as opposed to someone like DBent who either scores or does very little most weeks). Definitely NOT the week to go after Rooney or RvP - one of them might have a great weekend but that's a lot of money to gamble on thinking you know which one compared to the alternative uses of that money.

Best Bargain Striker of the Week: See the note on Jozy Altidore above. I'm definitely in. If he's not your cup of tea then Doyle has to be interesting assuming he's healthy again. Finally, I realize that he has a tough match-up on the road vs. ManYoo but Bendtner has looked very strong thus far this season. I'm not necessarily in for him this weekend but as Arsenal's schedule starts to look a bit easier in the coming weeks he's definitely going to start getting his points. If you're looking for someone who you might be willing to take a risk on at a low price (as opposed to risking a ton on RvP) then Bendtner might be your guy.

Midfielders
Best Value Midfielder of the Week: Until he stops producing (or his price goes way up) the clear answer here is Stephen Hunt. Hull may not be a glamorous side and their match-up is only slightly better than average this week but Hunt has shown that he's going to produce whether it is goals or crosses or corners won, he's going to do the job. My expectation is that with Altidore providing a better target, that Hunt will get more assists and more SCs than he has thus far with Hull's anemic strikeforce. The goals may wane but at 8.88 you're not going to do any better. Heck, you may not do better at 10 or 11. Aaron Lennon is improbably the next best option for the money here with Nani coming in third despite the match-up with Arsenal. You probably just want Nani in the line-up at a reasonable price unless he's hurt or ManYoo make the (unlikely-but-still-rumored) move for Arjen Robben.

Best Premium Midfielder of the Week: What to make of the situation? Gerrard has performed well despite Liverpool's rotten start and Lamps has been only mediocre despite Chelsea's strong start. Chelsea has the more favorable match-up so I'm going to give Lamps one more weekend before I make the move to Gerrard. If he doesn't figure out the diamond formation against Burnley then I'm good ditching him.

Best Bargain Midfielder of the Week: Hunt is really the answer here but we've already written about him so I'm going to go against last year's experience and suggest that Deco is an interesting option. He seems to have adapted to the new Chelsea diamond and he's producing decent fantasy stats at a low price. As we've previously noted in this space, he did the same thing early last season and then did pretty much nothing the rest of the season but we're not talking about a big investment here so it may be worth considering based on the match-up. Wilson Palacios is another option here as are re-emerging Blog Favorite Jason Koumas and new blog shiny objects Jordi Gomez and Nenad Milijas - neither have fantastic match-ups but neither are bad match-ups either.

Defenders
Best Value Defender of the Week: I'm sure I'll be accused of jumping on the moneytrain here and to some extent that's true. My pick is Micah Richards. As Jeremy mentioned in his Lescott-to-Citeh posting, Lescott isn't necessarily any more valuable after his move but his addition/presumed replacement of Richard Dunne increases the values of Richards, Wayne Bridge, and Shay Given who should see more clean sheets as a result of the improved central pair of central defenders. At 7.36, it's hard to argue with Richards both this week and as a long term investment. Quietly, Tyrone Mears has crept into this discussion as well, he's not so cheap that I can put him into the "Bargain" category but Mears seems to be potentially emerging as this year's Pantsil.

Best Premium Defender of the Week: I rarely go in for premium priced defenders but that doesn't mean that there isn't value in doing so. If you're going to splash the cash this weekend, then John Terry has to be the answer. Hard to see Burnley getting a goal against Chelsea despite their improbable heroics thus far. Throw in the fact that JT hasn't gotten much going on target yet this season and you have to think he's due for at least an SOT or two if not a headed goal from a set piece. Not a guarantee, just worth noting. I'd give Ledley King a nod as a secondary option here as well - certainly not someone you want to count on week-to-week since he'll take up a chunk of your budget but given the match-up and assuming that he won't injure himself between now and the weekend (a big assumption I know) he is worth a look.

Best Bargain Defender of the Week: Richards fits this category but there are a bunch of other guys who you have to put into the picture and decide which version of imperfect you prefer. SeaBass is probably the next best of the bunch given the match-up. You can also throw in Hutton to that mix. My reservation about the Spurs defenders (including King from above) is that I can't get away from the fear that they'll give up a bad goal and turn very strong weeks into mediocre ones very quickly. Other options include Wilkinson who is at home but doesn't have a great match-up in Sunderland who are off to a good start. Old favorite Pantsil who also has a tough match-up @Villa but continues to be good value despite a year's worth of evidence that he should be priced higher. George McCartney is another attractively priced option even though he's on the road.

Keepers
I haven't really changed my tune much on this so far this season - Given is the man (even at 9 but much more so at 6) . Foster is still a great option even if he isn't necessarily a great option THIS week - for some reason he's still only 8.17. Those two should probably be the beginning, middle, and end of your goalkeeping ruminations. If you have to go low, Myhill has been excellent and is still exceptionally cheap despite that fact. The only other guy in the equation on paper is Tim Howard but given that he's at -7.5 per match you have to take that with a grain of salt. I'd much rather think about him on the BD than for this week since Everton is still highly suspect.

Sorry for the lateness of the post, I've been traveling like crazy for work and for nearly two weeks and this is the first chance I've had to get my thoughts together. See you tomorrow for Injuries and Suspensions and then on Saturday for our live chat.

Cheers - Neal

The Week Ahead

Wow, we're back!! The season is really set to get underway. No more making due with an MLS fix here or a big-time international friendly there (DC United vs. Real Madrid in 100 degree heat none-the-less). Obviously we're firmly entrenched in our new/old home and excited for the freedom that it brings us as we continue to bring you what we hope is the best coverage around of Premier League Fantasy Football (especially pertaining to the Yahoo game but hopefully useful for those of you playing other games as well). As we do every year, we'll try some new stuff and some of it will stick and some of it will not. We encourage your feedback as we do try new things out and if you think there are things that we could be doing that we aren't, well, let us know about that too. If it seems like a good idea to us and the time commitment won't cause one or both of us to either get fired from our day jobs or get divorced, then we're happy to consider it.

So, I have to confess, the first TWA of the season is always both the easiest and hardest to write. Why is it easy you ask? Well, because Jeremy and I have generally been IMing, texting, and writing emails back and forth discussing new players, new formations, pre-season results, and everything else we can get our hands on for the better part of a month. Throw in that we've just written 20 fairly in-depth team season previews and I'm certainly up to speed on what the options are and I've had a lot of time to settle on my opinion of those options.

Given that, why is it difficult? I say it is difficult for two reasons. First, there are a lot of players who are brand new to the league and we're not really sure what to expect of them or if they'll even get much playing time. Second, because I've been thinking about this for so long already - I'm pretty much down to firm answers rather than lots of options. Now I have to go back and remember how I narrowed myself down to those answers by recalling the options that I considered and why they were attractive to start with and why I dismissed them in favor of something else. But, enough of my complaining, on to the analysis...

Oh, one other thing to keep you in suspense before I start the analysis in earnest. I mentioned above that I'd been to see Real Madrid play DC United last weekend and have a few observations from that match. First, I was reminded why Arjen Robben was such a big deal for a couple seasons before injury started interrupting things. With all the stars on display he was EASILY the most dynamic player on the pitch. Made CRon look like a squad player by comparison. I wonder if the new competition will motivate him to actually stay healthy all season or if some other team is going to find a way to pry him away from Real. If they do, it will be great business if he can stay healthy.

One final note on that match is about the guy who played right midfield for DC United, Chris Pontius. He made Roystan Drenthe his bitch for the entire match. I can't say I've watched Drenthe too many times but I assume for him to be playing at Real, he must be considered at least decent. Pontius is an MLS rookie and unless Drenthe was just not putting in any effort due to the heat or pre-season or whatever my guess is that Pontius will be showing up on the other side of the ocean in the next season or two. Nice player - for you non-MLS followers, remember you heard it hear first.

OK, here we go with a slightly revised format from last year...

Schedule
The big deal for Week 1 is obviously the difference between those teams that play two matches (ManYoo, Chelsea, Sunderland, Pompey, Stoke, Burnley, Wolves, Wigan, Liverpool, Birmingham, Tottenham, and Hull) and those who only play one (Arsenal, Everton, Villa, Rovers, Fulham, Bolton, Citeh, and West Ham). Once you start considering the match-ups for the two-gamers and their talent levels (5 of them are likely to struggle against relegation) and you're really left with ManYoo, Chelsea, Liverpool, Spurs and maybe Stoke as the most likely sources of people in your line-up. Are there select guys from the other teams that you might want to consider? Sure, but if you're line-up isn't heavily tilted towards those teams then you're definitely going against the odds. There will be plenty of time to pick up guys like Arshavin or Ashley Young or Robinho next week when they're back on even par as far as number of matches played.

Forwards
Value Pick of the Week: The best bargain of the week is likely to be Didier Drogba. Priced at 10.66 and seemingly guaranteed a starting spot as Chelsea's new manager seems intent on forcing the pairing of Anelka and Drogs. He's looked healthy in the pre-season and a healthy Drogs is a good thing for fantasy managers as unlikeable a guy as he seems to be. Honorable mention goes to Berbatov and Defoe who are pretty solid value in the mid-12s with solid match-ups but at that price you can have Drogs and a much better player at another position. Don't get carried away with Defoe's two goals vs. Holland please, international form rarely translates to league goals - at least not enough to where you'd want to alter your plans.

Premium Pick of the Week: Wayne Rooney has to be the guy. Sir Alex has challenged him to pick up the slack left when CRon left for Madrid and Wayne seems energized by the opportunity to play something close to his ideal position and not have to cover up for Ronaldo's deficiencies tracking back. With the not-so-killer Bs (Birmingham and Burnley) the opposition he should be off to a flying start. I rate Rooney's chances of having a big week slightly higher than Anelka's and much less risky than Torres. With RvP, Robinho, K2, and Agbonlahor playing only one match there really aren't many other premium picks available this weekend.

Best of the Rest: Hugo Rodallega at 7.38; Frederic Piquionne at 6.42; and Ricardo Fuller at 7.03.

One closing note, I wouldn't expect too much from Michael Owen unless and until one of the presumptive starters at ManYoo (Rooney and Berbs) gets hurt. I think SAF is smart enough to keep him rested (read healthy) and pick his spots when he needs something special off the bench in 20 to 30 minute increments.

Midfielders

Value Pick of the Week: I'm really torn here between Luka Modric and Lucas as the best value for the money with a chance of Nani getting into the conversation if he turns out to be healthy. If I had to pick one of the two, I'd go with Modric because he has more of a track record and I don't want to get too excited about Lucas' pre-season performances because, well, it's pre-season. Modric had a pretty solid second half of last season and is likely to continue to improve as the situation at Spurs continues to stablize (at least as much as it ever does at the Lane these days). Honorable mention here to Charles N'Zogbia who we here at the blog have always had high hopes for as well as Darren Fletcher who seems likely to get a regular run out and starts out the season at 5.24 with an increased chance of picking up points with more minutes.

Premium Pick of the Week: With Cesc, Arshavin, Ashley Young, Gareth Barry, SWP, and MTay all one-gamers and Jummy and Arteta still coming back from injury there isn't really much Week 1 competition for this slot, it's really Lamps and Gerrard with Lamps taking the lead based on Chelsea's easier schedule and Gerrard's minor knock (might not keep him out but why risk it with Lamps having a better match-up for less money?). Hopefully, this will be a more interesting discussion next week.

Best of the Rest: Florent Malouda at 10.54; Valencia at 11.73; Utaka at 4.69; Lawrence at 8.94; KRich at 8.41; Milijas at 5.60; and Gomez at 5.60.

Defenders

Value Pick of the Week: With the injuries mounting at Old Trafford, John O'Shea seems like a shoe-in to be playing right back in Week 1 at a very reasonable price. He won't blow your doors off with a ton of points but for 7.37 he's a pretty good bet for 7 or 8 points in each of his two matches. Ivanovic/Ferreira enter this conversation if Chelsea inexplicably sell Bosingwa to Bayern Munich not because either of them are particularly useful defenders over the course of the season but if you're looking only at Week 1 then you might pick one of them based on match-ups (that said, I can't imagine Chelsea would be crazy enough to sell Bos so you can probably ignore the last sentence).

Premium Pick of the Week: Speaking of Bosingwa (which I was) he is (assuming he's still with Chelsea, that is) the best bet of the guys who are first choice guys at either ManYoo or Chelsea. He wasn't the point machine that we'd all hoped for last season but he was pretty solid and I'd expect the same thing this week. Second place here for me is Martin Skertl. The man who needs to buy a vowel made it through a closed door match today and is headed into the starting line-up at a pretty reasonable price for a defender starting for Liverpool.

Best of the Rest: Bassong at 5.50; Wilko at 4.73; Insua at 8.73; Hutton at 7.34.

Keepers

Value Pick of the Week: Whichever of Foster or Kuszczak gets the starts (hopefully, we won't have to guess) followed at a fair distance by The Captain, Chris Kirkland.

Premium Pick of the Week: Cech who still isn't the guy he used to be over Reina who has a shakey defence in front of him this week due to injury.

Best of the Rest: Not much here this week unless you're really not willing to risk the ManYoo thing and want to go with Given and his one match at a decent price. Next week should be much more interesting in this space as everyone gets back to an equal number of matches.

Should be an interesting opening week of the season - I know I can't wait. Watch this space for Injuries and Suspensions on Friday and hopefully we'll get the final word on Nani and Foster/Kuszczak among others.

Lampard out 'a few weeks'

Chelsea midfielder Frank Lampard is out for 'a few weeks' after suffering a torn thigh muscle.

Lampard picked up the injury during the 4-4 draw with Aston Villa on Boxing Day and was replaced by Michael Ballack after 26 minutes.