Season Preview: Arsenal

I'm sure readers familiar with the blog will assume I'm being biased here in going with Arsenal first given my personal bias toward them but as it turns out, that is also how the alphabet works so rather than trying to figure out a different scheme for ordering the previews, the Gunners are first up.  (NOTE: for the purposes of this preview I am assuming the following... Cesc will be staying and Arsenal will land at least one more CB and a new goalkeeper. I'll update the preview if one or more of these things turns out to be untrue.] 

Overall Outlook - Arsenal were good enough to challenge for the title last season and should be at least slightly improved this season with the addition of Chamakh and Koscielny (and the presumed additional CB and GK).  They should continue to be a high scoring team with the hope that they can tighten up the defence with better health at the fullback spots and improved talent/attitude at the keeper and CB spots.  The most important change this season will be the addition of Chamakh to the attack which SHOULD allow Wenger to insert Chamakh as the target striker in his 4-3-3 flanked by Arshavin and RvP.  Assuming Cesc is pulling the strings and Song is back-stopping midfield there will be plenty of options for Wenger to choose from - Walcott, Nasri, Denilson, Diaby, Rosicky, Wilshere, etc - for the final midfield spot in his preferred XI.



Projected Starters - New Goalkeeper (we'll say Schwarzer for now just to have a name), Sagna, Vermaelen, Koscielny, Clichy, Song, Nasri, Cesc, Arshavin, Chamakh, RvP.

In the Rotation - Eboue, Walcott, Denilson, Diaby, Bendtner (when healthy), Djourou, New CB, Gibbs

Kicks - RvP and Cesc will generally split free kick duty when both are healthy and starting, Nasri and Arshavin will take some from time-to-time as well but most points from kicks will go to RvP and Cesc.

Newcomers

• Chamakh, F,  likely starter, high value, strongly recommended;
• Koscielny, D, likely starter, medium to high value, recommended but unlikely to be as strong value as Vermaelen was last season - some chance that he will be supplanted by a late signing which will drop his value;
• New GK, GK, likely starter, high value, depends on initial price - someone like Schwarzer from inside the Prem will be more expensive and less highly recommended while someone brand new to the league will be excellent value;
• New CB, D, TBD, moderate value, it all depends on who this ends up being if it is an experienced international then they will likely replace Koscielny as the presumed starter

Rising Youth

• Wilshere, M - Everyone expects him to become a star and perhaps replace Cesc whenever he ends up heading back to Barca.  He looks to be better for his run of first team action at Bolton last season but its hard to imagine him really getting a lot of opportunity.  My guess is he'll go out on loan again but Wenger may decide he is best served in the rotation at the Emirates.  Regardless, not a lot of fantasy value here.
• Gibbs, D - He looks ready to take over for Clichy should he be sold, injured, or continue to regress from his peak form.  If he does start, he'll be excellent fantasy value as he defends well and looks the part going forward as well.

Fantasy Breakdown

• Best - Cesc may be the Gunners best player in the real world but as far as fantasy managers are concerned, RvP is their best fantasy player when he's healthy.  Goals, assists, phantom points, guaranteed starter, takes set pieces, and tends to be more aggressive about getting his opportunities than Cesc when both are healthy.  What's not to like? (OK, maybe the occasional rush of blood to the head that leads to a YC but those tend to be minor quibbles);
• Best Value (non-newcomer) - Vermaelen's price may be high for a defender at 9.70 but the money is still well spent on a point-per-cost basis - Diaby and Rosicky are strong value as well but given the numbers in midfield, they are less likely bets to start which downgrades them significantly.
• Best Projected Value - Of the names we know now, Chamakh is the highest on the list by far in my mind.  If a new keeper comes in from outside the Prem and is priced under 6.00 then that player likely pips Chamakh for this prize but you'd be silly not to buy both early on in the season.
• Worth Considering With Good Match-ups -  RvP, Chamakh, Arsh, Cesc, Nasri, Vermaelen, Koscielny/New CB, New GK
• Worth Knowing If He's Starting - Walcott, Wilshere, Gibbs