The Week Ahead - Week 3 Edition

There has been a lot of chatter - in the blog comments, on AIM between me and Jeremy, and on last weekend's Live Chat - about the relative merits of Joey Barton (especially when compared to Kevin Nolan).  I thought I'd throw in my two cents before I got on with the usual business of this column.  This decision really comes down to philosophy in picking your fantasy team and the quirks of the Yahoo game versus most other fantasy games.  Since Yahoo includes the notion of "phantom points" (successful crosses, corners won, shots on target, etc.) the most frequent goal scorers aren't necessarily the most useful fantasy players - especially if that's about all they do.  Here's my breakdown of the two players and why I chose the way I did on the Barn Door.

Nolan
If you go back to Kevin Nolan's best years in the Premier League (9 goals for Bolton in both 03/04 and 05/06) and assume he'll be back to that form he STILL wasn't that great a fantasy player.  On the weeks he scored goals, he did well but the rest of the time you were lucky to get 5 points out of him.  It is easy to get drawn in by the fact that Nolan scored 17 goals in the Championship last season. Just remember, Premier League washout Peter Wittingham scored 22 and didn't get a sniff of interest from the top flight.  On the Phantom Point front, we know that Nolan doesn't take kicks and that even during his goal-scoring bonanza last season in the Championship he only got 5 assists.  He plays centrally and therefore isn't likely to get any successful crosses and will end up getting the occasional SOT and/or CW on the weeks when he doesn't score.

Barton
As with all things Joey Barton his resume is full of extremes.  In Barton's best season (well, half season really), he was among the best fantasy players available.  He will score and get assists with some frequency PLUS he will be much more likely to make fantasy managers happy week-to-week as he piles up the SOTs, CWs, and SCs that generally fall to the players who take the majority of kicks for their team.  The downside as we are all aware is Barton's proclivity for picking up cards and this shouldn't be ignored.  On the plus side, you have to throw in that awesome mustache. 

The Bottom Line
If both are reaping the benefits of Newcastle's return to at least being a solid Premier League team then Barton will end up being the better bargain.  Maybe Nolan has found himself at age 28 and will prove me wrong but it seems unlikely that a player will have his best goal-scoring year by far at that age.  We know Barton can be a fantasy stud because he's done it while Nolan has never really been anything more than slightly better-than-average as a fantasy player in the Premier League.  Throw in the best 'stache we've seen in years for Barton and that's how I made my choice between the two last weekend as the BD (slowly) shut.

Schedule, Part 1 - European/Carling Cup Mid-week
As we will each week some clubs do and some clubs don't have midweek action, we'll do a quick rundown of the impact that the mid-week action may have on the upcoming fantasy weekend:

• Spurs vs. New Boys - Spurs were at home on Wednesday and should be relatively well-rested for the visit of struggling Wigan on Saturday.  They should also still be on something of a high after winning their way into the group stage of the Champions League after going down 3-0 in the first half last weekend.  The only big question will be the health of Gomes after he picked up a knock in the first half yesterday.
• Aston Villa vs. Rapid Vienna - Villa were at home but the injuries continue to mount as do the negative results.  Agbonlahor scored early but came out after 40 minutes.  The starting line-up was about half regulars and half reserves so while the attack should be OK for the weekend, the back line might continue to be stretched.
• Manchester City vs. FC Timisoara - Outside of Hart and Richards you could easily look at this as Citeh's second team.  This shouldn't have an impact on their effectiveness this weekend.
• Trabzonspor vs. Liverpool - Liverpool was on the road and we already knew that Gerrard, Torres, and Masch were going to be absent.  Outside of those three, Liverpool sent out a line-up that was about 50/50 first choice vs. reserves.  Of the teams that played in mid-week and have attractive weekend match-ups, this is the biggest risk.  With their match not until Sunday the extra day should help but don't be shocked if Pool are a bit more lethargic than you'd hope playing at home against a newly promoted team.
• Carling Cup - Most of the Premier League teams that played a Carling Cup match during midweek played largely reserve teams.  The only teams that featured line-ups mostly comprised of their first team players were Fulham, Wigan, and Sunderland.  Of these three, only one (Fulham) played as late as Wednesday and they did it at home.  Probably nothing to take from any of these matches outside of watching the injury updates and some possible returns (Reid for Sunderland for instance).

Schedule, Part 2 - The Match-ups

• ManYoo vs. West Ham - ManYoo may not be firing on all cylinders but we're not sure that West Ham has any cylinders firing - the big questions here are all about Man United's team selection;
• Chelsea vs. Stoke - Stoke aren't bad overall and they aren't even a bad road team but Chelsea have been pretty exceptional against all but the best teams so at the very least you want to stick with the ones you have;
• Spurs vs. Wigan - See ManYoo vs. West Ham and load up on those Spurs who you're pretty sure will start;
• Blackpool vs. Fulham - The first home match for Blackpool and we'll see which team shows up - worth noting that Fulham were really bad on the road last season so this is less of a sure thing than we might like to think;
• Blackburn vs. Arsenal - The second match of the early season Arsenal cake walk is probably the most difficult of their matches until they play Chelsea.  The big question here is also about squad selection and who you know will start for the Gunners;

The rest of the match-ups really don't provide too much advantage one way or the other.  With that, we're on to the specific players.

Forwards 

• Didier Drogba - He may not have been the focal point last weekend in Chelsea's latest romp but who else in the league has disappointing weeks where they get 13 points?
• Wayne Rooney - The wildcard at this point - he disappointed everyone who had him last weekend by not playing at all and the weekend before by playing and doing next to nothing - this seems like an opportune time to break out of his slump but who knows - you would have thought vs. Algeria or vs. the US would have been equally opportune times as well;
• Dimitar Berbatov - Jeremy's fired up about his performances so far and they have been strong but I have to say I don't trust him or the seemingly obvious chance to pick him at a reasonable price relative to the match-up;
• Johan Elmander - Strong showing thus far over the first two weeks and playing at home to mediocre opposition - not a no-brainer but a strong option for less than 10;
• Moussa Dembele - I'm not convinced by Fulham on the road even against Blackpool but if you're looking to get in on the action then this is the most economical way to do it - that he scored in the Carling Cup can't hurt either;
• Peter Crouch - Speaking of those scoring in mid-week, Crouch had perhaps his best match ever against Young Boys as Spurs clinched their spot in the Champions League group stage.  At 9.30, he's excellent value as well;
• Marouane Chamakh - The recommendation would be stronger if a) he hadn't turned in the softest 19.50 point effort ever last weekend and b) I weren't concerned that he'll start the match on the bench with RvP ready to start and a tough road match at Rovers on the docket.  If he's going to start then he's worth having, if it isn't clear then there are other options for the same price that seem more solid;
• Carlos Tevez - He was probably awarded one more goal than he deserved last weekend but still worth remembering that he was one of the more prolific strikers in the league last season and Sunderland's defense is suspect-at-best at this point.  If Balotelli has recovered then you might want to give him a look instead as a value play but with that uncertain, Tevez is the guaranteed points;
• Fernando Torres - I like the match-up and he'd be higher up on the list if I weren't still worried about his form which hasn't been exceptional for quite some time now;
• David N'gog - If you're looking for a cheaper way into the Liverpool vs. WBA match-up, this is a decent bet as he'll likely continue to partner Torres with Kuyt, Jovanovic, and Gerrard supporting and Poulsen or Lucas holding;

Midfielders

• Florent Malouda - Did I mention that he has surpassed Lamps as the best midfielder on the best team? Throw in mediocre opposition at home and if you aren't already on the bandwagon, you'd better get there soon;
• Paul Scholes - I'm cringing while I write this but he's been the best player thus far on a very good (but not great) team with an excellent match-up.  I'm at least a little bit concerned that he'll be rotated because he's 500 years old but the price is low enough that I'm not THAT worried;
• Tom Huddleston - Unless one or more of Spurs' midfielders has a miraculous recovery then he'll likely be the orchestrator of the attack at home against Wigan this weekend.  He's cheap and worth a look if you want "in" on this match-up;
• Jermaine Jenas -Apparently this is the weekend for making recommendations that you cringe as you're typing (and this is only 2 out of 3 among the midfielders) but he had a nice return to action last weekend and the match-up only gets better.  Watch the injury reports to make sure he'll start but if he does he could be an unlikely source of value again;
• Theo Walcott - I have no idea what's going to happen here so take this less as a recommendation and more as an explanation.  If you think he's going to start then you should definitely keep him at the BD price.  If you're buying at "retail" then you should probably spend your money elsewhere;
• Stuart Holden - He's been OK so far and I continue to like him for the price against adequate-at-best competition;
• David Silva/Yaya Toure -Hard to say what the starting line-up is going to look like but the match-up is a good one so you should do whatever divining you can do and figure out who will start in midfield and get in on the action.  Hopefully, the answer is Silva;
• Joey Barton - And here's the third choice that makes me cringe.  Honestly, I'm not choosing him based on his performance last weekend so much as his output two weekends ago against ManYoo.  In a match where NUFC were completely over-matched, he still put up 9.5 points;

Defenders

• John O'Shea - He wasn't great value last weekend but he does look to be the starter at RB for ManYoo and the match-up is a very good one so back onto the recommended list of Mr. O'Shea;
• Laurent Koscielny - Coming back from a soft suspension in Week 1, he is both extremely affordable and looking at a favorable match-up.  I'm not sure what his starting status looks like after this weekend with Squillaci now officially in the fold but I have a hard time believing that he'll be thrown in to the Starting XI after 2 days in London so Koscielny's spot seems pretty safe for this week;
• Gareth Bale - Did I mention he's...a...stud...?  Just saying;
• Micah Richards - We have to watch to see when the new boys (Boateng and Kolarov) are coming back but until then Richards is solid value at just over 7.00 with Citeh not having conceded a goal yet this season;
• John Pantsil - If you want "in" on the vs. Blackpool match-up and you want to listen to me, then Pantsil is your guy; Jeremy on the other hand is more inclined towards Konchesky.  Neither are BAD ideas, I just think mine is a better one;
• Martin Skertl - Yes, he needs to buy a vowel but he's definitely priced to move after a horror show -5.50 last weekend - things should improve markedly this weekend if you want to get in on the action;
• Benoit Assou-Ekoto - BAE is the non-Bale "premium defender" that I'd go with this weekend if you want two.  The Chelsea guys are too expensive and Evans was a bit too much of a disaster for ManYoo last weekend for me to spend that much money on him so that leaves a Spurs defender and BAE is my guy, call it a hunch;

Goalkeepers

• Joe Hart - If you're going to spend, I'd go Hart over Cech and save the 2.65.  Cech may be a better bet for a CS but Hart seems destined to make enough saves to make up for conceding the odd goal;
• Pepe Reina - After being shelled last weekend, his price is great at just over 8.00 with a great match-up at home;
• Cheap Keepers - This is a terrible weekend to be trying to get away with a bargain basement keeper unless you have one on the Barn Door - spend some money this weekend even if its only the 8.46 on Reina and you'll thank me for it;

See you tomorrow for Injuries and Suspensions.

Cheers - Neal