Season Preview: Aston Villa

As I did for the Arsenal preview, I'm going to make some assumptions related to ongoing transfer speculation.  I'm going to assume that like Everton did last season with Lescott, Villa will capitulate to the huge offer from Man City on Milner and end up with Ireland and a bunch of cash.  Since I see Ireland plus cash for Milner as being great business for Villa - especially if they put that cash to good use - I don't think this will change the Villa outlook too dramatically if it turns out I'm wrong and they keep Milner.  I'm also assuming that Villa will keep Ashley Young away from the grasp of Spurs, et al.

Overall Outlook - It must be frustrating being a Villa supporter or even in management.  They have done some excellent business on a relatively tight budget over the last few years but seem to be moving backward more than forward.  The first team is as good as nearly any around and for the first time in ages there is actually some quality depth, especially at the back.  The problem is that while Villa are improving the old fashioned way, people with much deeper pockets are moving up the pecking order faster and potentially starting to undo some of that great work.  The insertion of City into the Top Four mix, the emergence of Spurs as a Champions League team with the increased revenue that goes with it, and the potential for Liverpool to be rescued from financial ruin by either Chinese or Syrian investors means that clubs like Everton and Villa are realistically going to have a hard time fighting it out for 7th place.  That said, there is every chance that Liverpool won't complete their sale in time to make a difference until January and that Spurs will wilt on the big stage (see Everton when they made the Champions League) and Citeh will continue to search for the right combination of players and manager to exploit their deep pockets and Villa could challenge for 4th.



Projected Starters - Friedel, Cuellar, Dunne, Collins, Warnock, SPet, AYoung, Milner, Downing, Agbonlahor, and Carew.

In the Rotation - Heskey (for now), Davies, LYoung (for now), Sidwell (for now), Reo-Coker, Delfouneso

Kicks - One of the worst things that has happened to the fantasy careers of Young, Milner, and Downing is that they came together at Villa and started splitting kicks.  Throw in occasional work from SPet and Warnock and the points really start getting split up.  Too bad but something to think about.

Newcomers

• No Significant Arrivals Yet - I Ireland arrives he'll likely have every opportunity to reclaim his form of two seasons ago which would represent excellent value for fantasy managers;

Rising Youth

• Delfouneso, F - Came on and did some nice things toward the end of last season.  Given the relative lack of options to spell Agbonlahor you have to think that he'll get more of a chance this season via either injury or rotation.  If so, he's probably worth a look as a strong value play if the match-up is favorable.
• Delph, M - Injured late in the season last year after finding the increase in competition rough-going early in his first Premier League season.  He'll likely be out until about November but once he returns look for him to get a chance in midfield.  Hard to tell how valuable he'll be as a fantasy player so far but worth monitoring.

Fantasy Breakdown

• Best - Despite the fact that I think he's overrated in the real world, James Milner is Villa's best fantasy player over the course of an entire season.  He gets phantom points, he takes at least some kicks, and he scores a decent number of goals from midfield.  If he goes then Ashley Young's value likely increases and he takes this spot from Milner.
• Best Value (non-newcomer) - A tie between Dunne and Cuellar as the two had almost identical statistics last season and are priced similarly to start this term.  Both are fairly expensive defenders but so far after two team previews, expensive defenders is where the value in veteran players lies right now;
• Best Projected Value - Villa would have to buy a meaningful new player for there to be an excellent projected value - if Ireland comes, this spot is his.  If not, you have to think that a new striker will be purchased from somewhere who might get some time.  If neither of those things happens then I'll go with Carew as the best projected value for the price.
• Worth Considering With Good Match-ups -  Agbonlahor, Carew, Milner, Young, Downing, Dunne, Cuellar, Warnock, Friedel
• Worth Knowing If He's Starting - Delfouneso, Davies, Albrighton, Clark