After the Window: Chelsea

I apologize for the delay in getting past the first team transfer summary.  We are using the international break for a nice rustic vacation in Maine.  I’ve been trying to generally stay away from the internet, email, and the other things that I tend to use for both my day job as well as staying up with current events in the Premier League and posting to the blog.  That lasted for a solid 3 days before I felt the pull of the laptop – I guess that’s why I’ve gotten involved in writing a blog on top of a day job. 

As it appears that I’m not going to get to every team, I’m going to start with the ones that have made the most substantial changes and move downward toward the ones that didn’t do much toward the end of window.  Since we’ve already covered Arsenal, I’ll move on to Chelsea.

I LOVED what Chelsea did toward the end of the window.  They had the type of window that Arsenal used to have.  Pick up a few very high end kids and throw in a very strong continental veteran.  The difference?  The price of the high end kids that used to be Arsenal’s stock and trade has increased by a factor of about ten since this was Wenger’s strategy.  I don’t know all the details but my guess is that Chelsea ended up paying Mata and Lukaku (and their previous clubs) like they were already established stars rather than rising talents with the potential to be the “next” someone good.   The economics aside, the moves look excellent.  The only downside is that they probably won’t payoff in huge measure for another couple years. 

Swap Meet

Funny thing about this transfer window is that teams have seemingly stocked up on redundant players rather than addressing clearer needs.  Also, we've seen a further concentration of players at the top as the biggest clubs fill out their 25-man rosters with full internationals while clubs below them are looking to academy and youth players to play a larger first-team role.  How do we address this?  Not being shy of an opinion, we offer our solution:

Based on the rumoured "Nasri for Tevez" swap, here are some ideas for player swaps that would help both sides.

Drogba for Modric
Chelsea want Modric, but Spurs are playing hardball and demanding an exorbitant fee.  Spurs are desperate for a striker, any striker, to help keep them in the hunt for Champions League football.  So, let's swap players!

Meireles for Shawcross
Stoke are desperate for some source of creativity in their central midfield and we're all well aware of Liverpool's glut of players in that department.  Also, Liverpool are looking to shore up their central defence as Carragher continues to age and neither Skrtel or Agger can put together a consistent run of matches.   So, let's swap players!

Adebayor for Aquilani
Back to Liverpool's bloated squad.  This swap makes sense for both teams in terms of shoring up their squads where they lack depth.  Adebayor would be an excellent "understudy" for Carroll as he would bring many of the same attributes to the team - good in the air, headcase, etc.  In return, Manchester City get another creative player who could be cover for Silva or be an alternative to Milner in the middle of the park. So, let's swap players!

Cahill, Reo-Coker for Vela, Bendtner, and Oxlade-Chamberlain
Bolton are reasonably well represented in central midfield with Muamba, Holden, Pratley, M Davies, S Davis as "specialists" while Ricardo Gardner can also play there.  They also have a ready-made replacement for Cahill in David Wheater.  In return for sending their commanding center-back to Arsenal they would get the attacking tools that they desperately need.  Bendtner could play though the middle with, or in place of, Davies while Vela can play across the front line.  In Oxlade-Chamberlain, Owen Coyle would get another youngster to mould and would provide cover on the wings with Chyong-Lee out with his broken leg.  So, let's swap players!

What swaps would you propose?

Season Preview - Chelsea

Quick Reminder, Real Life

Sort of an odd season at Stamford Bridge wasn’t it. Never REALLY in the race for first but never REALLY out of it either. The Blues big names down the spine of the formation - Drogba, Lampard, John Terry, Ashley Cole, Essien and Cech - were all less than their best for varying reasons but all were still above average Premier League players when they played. The names brought in to supplement that core also had their ups and downs. Florent Malouda had a great first half but only an adequate second half. Anelka and Kalou were effective in spells and invisible over other spells. Ramires wasn’t ready. Mikel may never be ready. Big winter signings Torres and Luiz cost a lot of money with mixed results at best. Luiz was by far the better of the two although he seemed to have a penchant for making one big mistake per match. Torres was an unmitigated disaster. Chelsea are clearly a team between “generations” of players with half a roster of players heading toward the downside of their careers a few decidedly on the upside and precious few healthy and at their prime. It just wasn’t enough to compete with United.

Quick Reminder, Fantasy

You expect a lot from Chelsea players when it comes to fantasy. Lots of goals, lots of clean sheets, and expensive prices. Of note, FloMal was one of the best players going for the first two months of the season. Drogba closed the season very well. Luiz scored some goals which will be a great addition to defending points if he can settle down a bit, hold on to a place in the starting line-up, and avoid the bad cards and fouls in the box. Anelka degraded throughout the course of the season leaving us to wonder what his fate will be this coming season.

Summer Changes

What Makes a Good Squad Player

I had an interesting interaction with a reporter/writer that I was not familiar with until yesterday. His name is Tom Williams and he can be found on Twitter at @Tomwfootball. His original tweeted premise, on the occasion of Patrick Vieira's retirement as an active player, was spot on.

Measure of Vieira's impact: players like Abou Diaby mistakenly typecast as defensive midfielders just because they have a similar physique.less than a minute ago via web Favorite Retweet ReplyTom Williams
tomwfootball

There is an entire generation of lanky midfielders - mostly French or French-speaking West African - who have been labeled "next Vieira" while their managers, journalists and supporters attempt to push them into the "Vieira role", defined as box-to-box action with a heavy emphasis on the holding role. Not as holding-only as Makelele, but certainly far better and more focused on that role than someone like Pirlo or Alonso who is more deep-lying distributor.

As Mr. Williams indicates in his Tweet, it is a huge tribute to Vieira that the desire to find the next one of him caused managers to stop looking at a player's actual qualities and just assume that he should fit a certain mold. My response, which was perhaps a bit extreme but still valid at the core was that not only some players - most notably Yaya Toure - have been mis-categorized as holding midfielders by managers, the media, and supporters. There are also players, like Abou Diaby, who have been miscast as being better than they actually are because of the hope that they will eventually fulfill that "Next Vieira" promise.

@tomwfootball mistakenly typecast as DMs in the case of say Yaya Toure, miscast as top flight footballers period in the case of Diabyless than a minute ago via yoono Favorite Retweet ReplyNeal Thurman
nealjthurman

Mr. Williams didn't think very highly of my opinion of Diaby as being "miscast as a top flight player" which got me to thinking about what makes a good squad player.  I think we'd all agree (even Mr. Williams) that Diaby hasn't shown enough that even a bottom half team would buy him with the intention of him being a regular starter.  Between injury and lack of consistent production (either attacking or defending) he just isn't as good as midfielders currently starting in the Prem.  Higher up the table he wouldn't be rated as of high enough quality.  Farther down the table, his abilities might shine a bit more in comparison to current starters but his inability to stay on the field for more than a few matches at a time would make him a poor choice.

In an effort to re-examine my reply to Mr. Williams' Tweet, I started thinking about what makes a good squad player in an effort to determine whether I over-reacted in saying that Diaby has been miscast as a top flight player (at least in England).  Here's what I came up with as far as constructing reserves:

History Repeating

In your history books

Check out this post from the blog's first month back in 2004:

Fantasy Premier League Blog: The Roman Empire

We love the Fantasy EPL mentality that Mr. Abromavich has brought to Chelsea, but we're not sure he's picking the right guys up front. To prove our point, we'll be tracking the fantasy totals of Roman/Jose's current strikers against the ones they've kindly loaned out to their rivals (specifically Carlton Cole and Mikael Forssell). Even with a 3 striker to 2 advantage the Banished lead those still around by the narrow margin of 21.60 to 20.40.

After Week 1:

The Most Favored:
D. Drogba - 5.30
E. Gudjohnsen - 10.20
M. Kezmen - 4.90

The Banished:
C. Cole - 16.70
M. Forssell - 4.90

And now compare today's situation where Neal is giving us weekly updates on the respective goal tallies of Torres (1) and Sturridge (7).

Plus ça change, plus c'est la même.

Barn Door Team

Here we go again.

My barn door team after the weekend looks like this:

Progressive changes (regressive possibly, I'll leave that to you) after the jump.

On Bale

Well, I said nice things about Spurs (deservedly) and ManYoo (also deservedly) and wasn't particularly enamored with Arsenal's performance despite their win and yet the shouts of "you're biased" still came ringing in the comments section of "First Impressions and Second Thoughts."  Honestly, I'm coming to enjoy it a bit so keep it up.  To the extent that I have time, I'll continue to discuss my (non-biased) rationale for my opinions.  The main subject of displeasure this time around was the fact that I called out Bale as still not being fantasy value on a weekend where the Bale fantasy apologists were still glowing from his 29 point, 2 goal effort.  For those who still don't believe me that you should have sold him weeks ago despite this past weekend's outburst, here are the numbers:

Since Bale's last major outburst in Week 2 (33.5 points), he has been averaging 10 points/match and has cost approximately 15.  Over the course of 11 matches, you've gotten approximately 110 points from him at the combined cost of about 165.  For those of you who had Bale from the beginning of the season, you got those same 110 points for a cost of about 132.  So, what else could you have had for your money over that stretch that leads me to believe that you should have spent differently?

Eyeing the Schedule

Football - Premier League - Standing - Home - 2010-2011 - Day 12 - Yahoo! Eurosport

Holding Drogba, but enticed by the match-up that Tevez has as well as his cheaper price tag. So a quick look at the tables.

BRM and SUN are about the same on the road, though BRM just a bit more likely to concede and score.

• SUN 5 for/10 against
• BRM 8 for/12 against

But CHE is absolutely clinical at home, while MAC's cautious approach isn't just away from Eastlands.

• CHE are 17 for/0 against at home
• MAC only 7 for/5 against at home

So on that, I think it's worth it to keep Drogba and look for enabling players elsewhere - especially at goalkeeper.

Excuses, excuses

Didier Drogba has been suffering from malaria, Chelsea reveal | Football | guardian.co.uk

Carlo Ancelotti, the Chelsea manager, has revealed that his striker Didier Drogba has just recovered from a bout of malaria, a disease the club are helping to fight.

The Ivory Coast striker has been on the Chelsea sidelines in recent weeks. This was put down to a virus and the player was only fit enough to be a second-half substitute against Liverpool on Sunday.

But today Ancelotti revealed: "Didier has had problems. He had a virus and lost power in training. We now know what he had was malaria. He was given some time off and came back with malaria.

"Now he's OK and will be back, immediately, in his best condition. He suffered because he was not 100 per cent but after the treatment he will be better."

UPDATE: I should have been clearer. All indications are that he will start against Fulham.

Drogba will start against Fulham tomorrow as Chelsea go into the match determined to bounce back from their defeat at Anfield which has left them just two points clear of Manchester United.

Chelsea will hand late fitness tests to Nicolas Anelka (back) and Alex (knee), but Michael Essien is fit again after a toe injury.

LATER UPDATE: More information from Carlo, via Chelsea's website:

The manager did say Petr Cech will start in goal and that Salomon Kalou, Didier Drogba and Florent Malouda will be the attacking force, with Essien and John Mikel Obi sat in midfield.

In Praise of the Friday Trade that Never Happened

Jeremy Spitzberg: drogba/gyan?
Jeremy Spitzberg: how about dbent/berba king?

That would have been a 30-point mistake and I would still be in a horrible mood this morning.

Drogba fit to face Wolves

Premier League - Drogba fit to face Wolves - Yahoo! Eurosport

Didier Drogba looks set to return to lead the Chelsea attack against struggling Wolves on Saturday, but Frank Lampard will have to wait a bit longer for his comeback - much to the frustration of the England midfielder.

Ivory Coast international Drogba has missed the Blues' last two matches because of a virus but has now resumed full training ahead of the visit of Mick McCarthy's side, third bottom of the Premier League.

Lampard, though, is expected to need more recovery time following his hernia operation which has seen the 32-year-old out of action since August 28.

Late Injury Post

OK, I'm finally back where I can post to the blog so here are some broader comments than what I was able to get out this morning at the crack of dawn here on the East Coast of the US. First things first, the link to the consolidated SoccerNet listing of injuries, suspensions, and players coming back.

Out

• Drogba - We covered it earlier. Out with an illness. Kalkuta seems to be the fill-in which makes him (Kalkuta) at least somewhat interesting.
• Cesc, RvP, Sagna, Verm, Koscielny, Ramsey - The list is getting shorter with Walcott and Bendtner coming back into the frame. With so many key contributors out or in question, I'm going to be very careful about picking any of Arsenal's expensive players. Just hard to know if they'll be worth the money.
  
• Duff and Etuhu - Duff is always a question mark and rarely worth the price but many have had Etuhu as an "enabler" so worth noting that you'll be getting less than usual (his one goal-scoring match aside) if you decide to keep him.
• Spurs CBs - Hard to have much of an idea what's going to go on there with so many coming back from injury (Gallas and Kaboul) or questionable with long-standing injuries (King).
  
• Ben Arfa - I didn't think anyone forgot that he was hurt given the nature of the injury but a solid reminder that Barton should be back to taking the vast majority of kicks with HBA sidelined.
• Agbonlahor - You weren't going to pick him vs. Chelsea (I don't think) but he's out so you don't have to worry about it. Chelsea's defenders/Cech go up in value because they're much better equipped to deal with Carew/Heskey than they are the speedy Agbonlahor.
• Fellaini - A yellow card magnet in a derby match with a ton on the line? Not a likely selection anyway but worth pointing out anyway
• Jagielka/Pienaar - Also just a reminder

In Doubt

• Odemwingie - I hate giving him up but with his participation in question and the opposition strong(ish) it seems like the logical thing to do. Best case, he comes on as a sub, doesn't do much and his prices comes down a bit.
  
• Theo/Bendtner - They're in the squad but seem unlikely to start so proceed with caution.
  
• Darren Bent - He is called a "major doubt" and Bruce mentioned that he thought that Gyan could fill Bent's spot reasonably well. Definitely makes Gyan a potentially interesting option if you're looking for an inexpensive striker who is better than di Santo.
  

Early Injury News

I'm in meetings just about all day so I'll get some important news out before I head in. Either Jeremy or I will get back later in the day to do a more complete update but for now:

1. DROGBA IS OUT - it is only an "illness" so there likely aren't any long term implications here but regardless of what price you have him at, this is a big decision. For those who ditched him a few weeks back, your move looks much better now.
2. Also out for Chelsea - Lamps, Alex, Sturridge, Kalou, and Yossi meaning they'll be going with Cech, Ferreira, Ivanovic, Terry, Cole, Mikel, Ramires, Essien, Kakuta, FloMal, and the Elk. In my mind, this makes Kakuta a pretty interesting option at 6.28 and the Elk a strong bargain if you want to bail on Drogs.
3. Koscielny is out - Apparently he has a back problem seemingly out of nowhere. We should probably assume that Squillaci and Djourou will play. Both central defenders are pretty affordable but my take is that the injury diminishes the value of all of Arsenal's back line including Fabianski/Almunia.
   

The Week Ahead - Season Kickoff Edition

I have to admit that I'm a little mentally fatigued from writing all of those season previews over the last couple of weeks but I have to say that after looking at all that information about all of those players, I feel as prepared for a season as I ever have been.  Given the level to which I've geeked out in the past, that's really saying something.  With The Fantasist having (ahem) co-opted many of the good ideas from this blog as well as some of the other independent blogs focused on the Yahoo fantasy game (Assistant Manager, Scout, etc) we have to keep ourselves ahead of the game.  With that in mind, I have some new wrinkles that we'll be introducing over the course of the season to help our readers stay ahead of those unenlightened types who don't care enough about their fantasy teams to find and consistently read our blog.

Season Preview: Chelsea

Overall Outlook - It's been a pretty quiet off-season for the Champions with some fringe players with bigger names than games (JCole, Ballack, Deco, etc.) moving on and some less high-profile names (Ramires and Benayoun) coming in.  The veteran team also got a year older which has to be of some concern but certainly not to the point where you expect any of their big names to have a significant drop.  You just can't expect that many of them will improve and should expect slightly reduced performance and perhaps a few more injuries from players like Frank Lampard, John Terry, Ricardo Carvalho (if he sticks around), and Ashley Cole. That said, these are the reigning champions and neither of their closest competitors for last season's title - ManYoo and Arsenal - have made a significant step forward so you have to expect Chelsea to be the favorites unless ManCiteh make an unexpected huge step forward.  Seems like old times with a professional, unexciting, Ancelotti-led squad marching inexorably toward the title with a string of 2-1 and 1-0 wins being chased by a high-risk, high-reward, Mancini-led squad providing entertaining football but losing too many points to their inability to keep the ball out of the net while inexplicably losing the occasional 3-0 disaster to an inferior team. 

Chelsea striker Didier Drogba to miss start of season

UPDATE:  On the other hand...

Chelsea boss Carlo Ancelotti expects Didier Drogba and Petr Cech to be fit for the start of the new season.

 ---

Chelsea striker Didier Drogba to miss start of season - Telegraph

This is a week old now, but I had missed it. So maybe you did too.

Tanaka Breaks Drogba's Elbow

hat tip to Dirty Tackle - Yahoo! Sports' World Soccer Blog

Summer Reading: Ajax Youth Academy

How a Soccer Star Is Made - NYTimes.com

As we're waiting for the World Cup to get under way and don't have much other than transfer speculation and injury news to contemplate, I give you this (very) long but excellent look at youth academies and the business of producing young talent (mostly at Ajax with some discussion of Fulham, DC United, and the US developmental program as well).  If you have a solid 30 minutes to read, this is really worthwhile.  It doesn't really come to any conclusion, per se, just a great overview of how both the clubs and kids see their time training for a career at the top level of soccer.

Bummer about Drogs and Rio being out for the tournament.

Cheers - Neal

Big Time

We're all about Time Inc these days after they published our fantasy preview in their Unofficial World Cup 2010 Guide, so here's a shout out to them for naming Didier Drogba one of their 100 most influential people in the world.

Imagine the body of an NBA star with feet as nimble as a prima ballerina's. When the World Cup kicks off in South Africa in June, he will carry the hopes of a continent as Africa's best-known soccer star. (West African fans will toast him with a beer glass called the Drogba. It's nearly twice the size of a normal mug.)

No one knows the rickety and high-spirited but often heartbreaking touring bus that is African soccer better than Drogba. At the 2006 World Cup, his homeland ravaged by civil war, he organized a statement from the Elephants, as the Ivorian national team is referred to, calling for peace. Many credit the ensuing calm for allowing reconciliation to begin. At a match last March, 22 Ivorians were killed in the crush to see their beloved heroes play. After the game, Drogba resolved to donate every dollar he earns from endorsements to a charity he set up to build new hospitals in the country.

He's certainly on our short-list of fantasy players of the year (other suggestions are welcome in the comments) and this is another nice feather in his cap.  To which, he'll likely be adding another Premier League winners medal this weekend.  And good luck to him in his pursuit of Jules Rimet.

UPDATE:  It's a two-fer as Drogs also graces the cover of Vanity Fair in his skivvies.

Knee surgery rules Torres out for rest of season

Fernando Torres will miss the remainder of the season for Liverpool due to knee surgery, and his participation in the World Cup finals must be in some doubt as his club expect him to be sidelined for six weeks.

Torres, who previously underwent knee surgery in January, missed Liverpool's 0-0 draw with Fulham last weekend due to the problem and the striker will go under the knife on Sunday night after being seen by a specialist.

David N'gog
6.20
@Burnley

Get in while the barn door is open.

Meanwhile,

Chelsea boss Carlo Ancelotti will allow Didier Drogba to decide whether he is fit enough to play on this season.

The Ivorian striker is currently nursing a groin injury, and may yet require surgery in order to cure the ailment.

He was in obvious discomfort throughout the Blues' 2-1 defeat at local rivals Tottenham on Sunday, but was unable to be replaced in the second half as Ancelotti had used all of his substitutes.

Drogba is now in danger of inflaming the problem and ruling himself out of action for a prolonged period of time.