Premier League Review: All The Goals

<a href="http://msn.foxsports.com/foxsoccer/video?vid=75404a87-765d-47b2-b5a1-ee0fab3f4b90" target="_new" title="">PL: Weekend Roundup</a>

Gerrard Could Face Newcastle in Two Weeks

Sky Sports | Football | Premier League | News | Gerrard making progress

Liverpool captain Steven Gerrard could return to training on Monday after making good progress in his rehabilitation from a hamstring injury...

Gerrard will not play any part in their Europa League tie against Steaua Bucharest or in Monday's match at home to Aston Villa, but could face Newcastle five days' later.

'Steven's going well. He's back running, though not back in training,' the club's head of sports medicine Dr Peter Brukner said

'He's certainly looking good to play the Newcastle game, which has been our target all along.

We've been here before

... alternate title, "First time as tragedy, second time as farce."

In comments we were asked, "Is there any arguement for keeping VDV @ 6?".  I was reminded that there is an argument, and it was made, and debated ad naseum, last season when Didier Drogba was set to miss a month of league games while playing for the Ivory Coast.

The best encapsulation of the argument was probably over at Y!AM's site.

http://yahoofantasyfootballuk.blogspot.com/2009/12/drogba-dilemma.html

There have been some excellent posts in the comments and chat in the chat room regarding the game's top scorer; specifically by those who still own him at 10.66. The dilemma people are facing is whether to hang on to Didier Drogba during the African Cup of Nations, where he is likely to miss 4 Chelsea games.

Now, I had already assumed that I would sell him as I didn't think I could afford to take 4 weeks of zeros, but J Dunn and The Tigers have looked at the stats in detail and come up with some very interesting analysis.

Basically the idea was that Drogba at a discount would return more points over the course of the season than any replacement, even with four more game weeks and that analysis proved pretty much correct.  Now Van Der Vaart has been an awesome fantasy player.  And there is no definitive word yet on the extent of his injury.  But if, as rumored, he is out for a month, there is a lot of competition in midfield and a lot of points to be had for not too much money.  But that's probably the topic of another, longer, post.

Carragher faces month out

BBC Sport - Football - Liverpool's Jamie Carragher faces month out with injury

Liverpool defender Jamie Carragher is likely to be sidelined for a month after dislocating a shoulder.

The Reds vice-captain picked up the injury in Sunday's 2-1 defeat by Tottenham at White Hart Lane.

"It's very bad," said manager Roy Hodgson after the match. "It's a disappointing thing to happen on his 450th appearance in the Premier League.

"We'll now be without him and Steven Gerrard and they are the lifeblood of our club."

Skipper Gerrard missed the match with a hamstring problem he suffered in the 84th minute of England's 2-1 friendly defeat to France on 17 November.

The midfielder is expected to be out for between three and four weeks.

This is bad news for Liverpool and anyone betting on them keeping clean sheets. However, in midfield Meireles will continue to be a good option at a still reasonable 8.5. And an observation... Maxi Rodriguez is playing up alongside the strikers and may be well worth a punt as a 9.29 midfielder. I don't know that I want both him and Meireles in my team, but at home to a young and struggling Villa team... maybe. We're all looking for Van Der Vaart replacments, aren't we?

First Impressions and Second Thoughts - Week 14

Dimitar Berbatov is, in some ways, a perfect poster boy for this season's Premier League campaign.  In a season where unpredictable is being redefined, he is about as unpredictable a player as there is in the league.  I have written a fair number of unkind words about Berbs this season so I want to make this clear first off - he is a talented player.  The only reason he's worth writing unkind words about is because he manages to get such inconsistent results from his considerable talents.  If you look at either his real life stats (leading the Premier League in goals scored for the season now) or his fantasy stats (he's third in overall points among strikers) you're definitely missing a large part of the picture.  What do I mean?

• He has only scored one away goal this season (vs. Everton early in September).
• He famously went 10 matches in all competitions without scoring up to yesterday.
• His goals have come almost exclusively come against teams that are struggling mightily.  His victims: NUFC (their first match back in the Prem); West Ham (bottom of the table); Everton (were on 1 point from their first three matches at the time); Liverpool (in the middle of a variety of crises at the time); and Rovers (sitting 14th) - hardly the last 8 of the Champions League.  
• Between his three goals against Liverpool and his five against Rovers he exceeded 5 fantasy points (Yahoo scoring system) exactly ZERO times.

So, what to make of this? The best I can come up with is that Berbs is what Drogba and Chelsea are frequently accused of being and that is a flat track bully.  He picks on the weaker kids and when the level of competition rises, he shrinks to the point where he pretty much disappears.  Given that Berbs' profile is the exact opposite of the typical Ferguson player (comes up big when the stakes are the highest) it seems to me that Sir Alex would be best served cashing in on Berbatov's flashy output from this weekend with a January sale - if he could sell him today, that would probably be even better business.  All of the above said, cheers to any fantasy managers who saw Berbs' outburst coming and got on the bandwagon while avoiding his long drought.  Oh, and Blackpool are coming to Old Trafford next so it wouldn't be shocking to see him keep his goal-scoring going into next weekend.

So, what else happened this weekend?

Weather threat to Newcastle-Chelsea

Weather threat to Newcastle's Premier League clash with Chelsea | Mail Online

'Staff at Newcastle United are doing everything they can today to ensure that despite the heavy snowfall, tomorrow's Barclay's Premier League game with Chelsea can go ahead as scheduled.

'Aside from the task of making the pitch area playable, health and safety concerns are being addressed too.

'The club is working closely with Newcastle City Council and extra staff have been brought in to help make public areas in and around the ground safe and accessible.'

Update: False alarm. The game goes off as planned... But Chelsea haven't really turned up yet and Newcastle lead 1-0 through Carroll.

No Live Chat Today

My apologies but too much going on here at the house hosting relatives for the holiday weekend here in the States.  I hope everyone enjoys the matches and we'll be back with a live chat for the next Saturday matches.

Cheers - Neal

Egypt Speaks, You Listen

Although Neal and I are hip deep in this stuff every day, sometimes it doesn't seem like we're actually doing that well. We're usually in the top 5% of teams, but it has been a while since either of us were knocking it out of the park - to mix sports metaphors - on any regular basis.

One friend of the blog (FOB) who has been killing it for the last month or so is Mohamed Kileeny. Mohamed participated in our Liverpool Round-table before the season started and now finds himself in the top 50 teams overall. Mohamed rotates the majority of his team week-to-week, looking for the best match-ups rather than holding players long-term. And he has an uncanny knack for finding the week's random goal-scorer be they MGP, Huth, Crouch or Evra -- just to name the ones from the past month!

I've solicited Mo's (I hope you don't mind if we call you Mo) help and asked him to preview the week for us. Here's a little insight into how one of the top players approaches his team:

Injuries and Suspensions

With a house full of relatives there isn't really a lot of time for analysis but please consider this to be at least a solid resource that will help you catalog the injuries and suspensions in the Premier League for this weekend.

Out

• Cesc/Eboue/Vermaelen - Just when you thought the list might really get smaller, it gets larger again.
• Albrighton/Heskey/SPet/Reo-coker/Sidwell -  With Collins back, the big issue will be central midfield
• Zamora/Dembele/AJ - This presumably means Dempsey will start at forward instead of midfield.
• Gardner - Hard to believe he's Brum's leading scorer but he's out.
• Fletcher plus the long termers - Not much missing for ManYoo this weekend really.
• Harewood - Out for six weeks making Varney a first team choice
• Williamson/Coloccini/Barton - That's a lot of suspensions which can't help with Chelsea coming to town.
• Lamps/Zhirkov/Essien - Still thin for Chelsea which could be made worse if Terry and Alex go from "doubtful" to "out" 
• Fellaini - Last match of his suspension - fortunately for Everton Brunt is still doubtful for WBA as well.
• Gerrard - Spurs vs. Liverpool could be missing two of the biggest names with Gerrard definitely out an VDV apparently a "major doubt" with an ankle issue.  
• Pennant - He's not all the way "out" but it certainly sounds unlikely that he'll make it in time.
• Zabaleta - Suspended for accumulation but Balotelli is back from his suspension and might be solid value in Citeh's attack.
• Bramble/Turner - Not a good sign when your two best defenders are out for the most congested 5 or 6 weeks of the year.  Those who were excited about Gordon, you might want to reconsider.  The good news is that Gyan seems likely to return from his thigh strain that pissed off fantasy managers like me who had no idea he'd be out last Monday.
• Rodallega/Alcaraz - Both suspended in the wake of their defeat to ManYoo.  Not good to be Wigan, playing on the road, and missing two of 11 first choice players.

OK, I hope that is enough to get everyone through the selection process.  I'll try to be around for as much "Live Chat" as I can be tomorrow but with relatives still here, it will be a match-time decision.  Regardless, enjoy the matches. 

The Week Ahead - Thanksgiving Edition

Well, I've already used up the "things to give thanks for" gimmick and was even forced to throw out a "things not to be thankful for" addendum yesterday in the wake of Arsenal's toothless loss to Braga.  Here are a few additional thoughts after I've had a night to sleep on that outcome and read the comments:

• Vela was fouled in the box and it wasn't really close - I'm not sure why the referee didn't award a penalty but the expression on his face certainly gave me the impression he wasn't going to allow the match to be decided by a penalty. 
• There's no reason that it SHOULD have had to be decided by a penalty.  As one of our readers pointed pointed out in the comments, Arsenal enjoyed a lot of possession but it really wasn't dangerous possession.  Arsenal play plenty of matches where they are attacking constantly and they've earned the "profligate" moniker by not scoring from a number of good chances but yesterday wasn't one of them.  It wasn't that they didn't cash in on great chances, the problem was that all of their possession didn't lead to great chances this time around.  That is a much bigger problem in my mind than having long stretches of ineffectiveness around the goal and it has marked Arsenal's poor showings this season, not just this match. 
• I haven't seen this written anywhere else yet but you have to wonder if - due to his proclivity to be injured fairly regularly - this summer will be the time to cash in on Fab4.  If he comes back from his hamstring worry healthy and plays the rest of the season without incident then you can forget I wrote this but it seems like it will be hard to build a title-winning side around a lynch-pin that is only available and playing at his best about 2/3rds of the time.  
• Finally, moving on to Chelsea - it was an impressive effort for a very young side to come back from a goal down and win in Europe.  I'm still not particularly impressed by Chelsea's young players but this is the sort of experience that will start to give them the confidence they need to assert themselves more when they get their chances in matches that matter more.

With that, we return to our weekly analysis of the fantasy slate.

Things I'm NOT Thankful For

We can start the list with Arsenal's last 120 minutes of football - choking away a 2-0 lead to Spurs and the listless 2-0 loss to Braga in the Champions League that takes them from "could have guaranteed qualification" two CL matches ago to "could miss out" in a pretty short span.  Oh, and why is it that Wenger continues to roll out a clearly not fully healthy Cesc?  He's playing poorly.  Let him rest and get healthy. 

First Impressions and Second Thoughts - Week 13

With Thanksgiving upon us here in the States and the sting of Arsenal's come-from-ahead loss to Spurs fading a little bit due to a 4-0 weekend in NFL and the Eagles beating the Giants on Sunday night, I'm feeling a "things to be thankful for" gimmick coming on.  Rather than our usual format, we'll cover each team in the TOP HALF of the Premier League and discuss what they have to be thankful for.  We'll close each comment out with a thought about what each team HOPES to be thankful for by the time we get around to our next gimmick column at Christmas.  OK, maybe the holiday thing is a bit overdone as a theme (I'm sure you'll see something similar elsewhere about all manner of sports and other topics this week) but the alternative is me bitching and moaning about Arsenal's loss for about 1000 words and none of us want that so here we go.

Light Blogging This Week

It's a holiday week here in the Colonies so there will be less blogging than usual.  We'll have some sort of combined Week Ahead/Injuries & Suspensions in the run-up to the weekend's match-ups and other musings as time allows.

Happy Thanksgiving to all who celebrate it, and best of luck to all regardless.

The Barn Door Live - Week 13

Replay after the jump.

Musings

It's late.  I'm tired.  And I may, or may not have been drinking.  Isn't having a blog great?  Anyway, here are some random thoughts from a day of Friday trading:

• If I were a betting man I wouldn't be playing fantasy football.  I'd also bet that Brunt will not make the Stoke match.  It seems like he could play if needed, but that it's just not worth the risk of aggravating he groin injury and going from missing one match to missing weeks.  If Brunt doesn't play, I think it devalues Odemwingie slightly, but is good news for James Morrison and Graeme Dorrans who will be asked to be West Brom's creative players.
• Jerome Boateng is either over his injury problems or did his ankle playing for Germany and is out for the Fulham match.  I can't get a straight answer from the internets one way or another.  I like him at 4-something, but with Kolarov now in the side too I don't want to have all my defensive eggs in one basket. Though, on the other hand, Citeh are one of the better defensive teams... so it's a nice basket.  But what is Friday trading for if not to make stupid player decisions?  So welcome Martin Skrtel to the team.  Hopefully Liverpool can contain bottom-side West Ham at Anfield this weekend.  I honestly have no idea what to make to this game or know what to expect, but I've got Skrtel and Torres in the hopes that Liverpool's class and home-field advantage can overcome the scrappy, but frankly horrible Hammers.
• Hernandez?  He'll either float around aimlessly for 60 minutes before being replaced by Rooney... or he'll knock in a brace.  I'm guessing it's the former, but I'm too scared of the latter happening and my not having him.  So I bought him.  And now I'm hoping for the latter.  But still scared.
• On the larger ManU/Wigan issues... ManU should win this easily and to nil.  At least ManU of old - or of any year in the Premier League era - would.  This year you would almost bet on HRod and N'zog making it much more interesting.  Almost.
• Gordon.  Dear god, here's hoping that doesn't blow up in my face.  Keepers this week are a total crap-shoot.  Anyone from Carson at under 4 to Cech over 13 could give you 14 or -4 points this week.  
• Chamow.  He should be a great pick, but see Hernandez above.  He'll either score two or do f' all.  Hell, in the Wolves match, he did both!  What to think?  Other than it's the weekend to wait and get RVP and Defoe on the barn door.
• I had one other point... but can't remember what it was.

Thanks for indulging me.  Good luck this weekend to everyone.  And no, I'm not pullling a Spealman - getting drunk and failing to save a full team.  I hit "Save Changes".  I just don't know if the changes were advisable.

Gordon - Skrtel Kolarov WBrown - Milijas Nani VDV Albrighton - Hernandez Torres Gyan

Injuries and Suspensions

Well, the injury crisis at Chelsea was apparently somewhat overstated with Alex looking like he'll be able to play and Terry being readied for mid-week.  The dire predictions about the value of CHE's cheaper defenders (and Cech) appear to be a bit overblown.  That said, Zhirkov is apparently ruled out and there's a choice to be made between Bosingwa and Ferreira at right back.  So, there's definitely a better chance of a clean sheet now but the uncertainty now lies with selection. 

In other news, the takeover at Rovers is complete.  It will be interesting to see how the league's first Indian owners approach their investment in a club.  Is there the possibility that Rovers could become the unofficial club of India in the same way that all Americans have a soft spot for Fulham due to the number of American players who have (and currently) play there? India isn't ready to start supplying Premier League players but if Rovers could carve out a niche, it could be an opportunity to capture an over-sized portion of interest from a huge country that is growing incredibly quickly from an economic standpoint that is paralleled by a rising interest in the Premier League as well.  For those of our readers in India, I'd be curious to hear if Indian ownership makes you even slightly more interested in following Rovers.  If it doesn't right now, is there anything that would?

Finally, we welcome TheScore to our blogging family.  The start-up Irish sports site has asked Jeremy and I to derive a more general version of "The Week Ahead" appropriate for people playing any fantasy game for their site and our first installment was published this morning.  Check it and the rest of the site out.  If you like what you see, remember to hit the "Like" button - it's always important to show some traction when you're launching a new media property and advertisers like to see things like that.

OK, on to the injuries:

The Week Ahead

So, first things first.  Thanks to everyone who took part in the spirited debate over Gareth Bale this week.  We've been doing this for a long time now and with the possible exception of some of the season preview discussions, this was definitely the most lively and entertaining discussion we've had in the comments.  I appreciated those of you who agreed with my assessment and I also appreciated the passion and articulation of alternative points of view from those who think I'm b@tsh!t crazy for questioning Bale's fantasy value.  Keep it coming, I'll be the first one to admit that there are multiple ways to look at fantasy selection and my way doesn't always work for everyone.

Outside of a spirited debate on a very specific topic, there is one broader notion that this debate pointed out to me that represents a flaw in the way I tend to rate players on a week-to-week basis.  That flaw is the lack of the sort of differentiation that using a three fold rating system (e.g., Buy, Hold, and Sell) that would make it easier to speak with equal relevance to people who already have a player on their roster as well as people who are thinking of buying at the current retail price.  If this was my full time job, then there's not question that every player (or at least every player worth even considering a little bit) would need to get such a rating each week.  As it turns out, I have a full time job and as a result, don't have time to rate roughly 250 players (starters plus potential rotational starters) each week.  What I will try to do is point out where I can when I'm suggesting that a player is value at his CURRENT price vs. where I think you should drop him even if you have him at a discount.

What do I mean? As was WELL covered in the comments, there's an argument to be made for Bale at 12 and many people who bought in Week 1 and left him alone have him for.  I could see the logic in keeping him at that price.  That said, with less than 25% of teams owning Bale, most of our readers need to know what to do about him THIS WEEK and his CURRENT price - they can't go back and get him at 12.  So, going forward, I'll try to mention some players who are worth keeping at a discount (e.g., VDV under 6 despite the occasional niggling injury or tough match-up) vs. players who are probably not worth it even WITH a discount (e.g., Drogba or Malouda for about the last three weeks).  Hopefully, this will improve the quality of the recommendations and make them relevant for more readers.  Oh, and if someone has the money available to make this my day job, I'll be happy to provide Buy/Hold/Sell ratings for everyone each week.

OK, on to the week at hand.

Adam hopes to face Wolves

Sky Sports | Blackpool News | Football | Premier League | Adam hopes to face Wolves:

More injury uncertainty from the international schedule.

Charlie Adam is hopeful of being fit for Blackpool's clash with Wolves despite picking up a knock on international duty.

The classy midfielder was forced to limp off midway through the second half of Scotland's 3-0 win over Faroe Islands on Tuesday night with a knee problem.

It was feared the knee injury could sideline Adam for this weekend's home clash with Wolves, but the former Rangers man is optimistic of recovering in time.

'I am a wee bit sore and stiff in the knee, but I should be okay and hopefully be alright for Saturday,' Adam told Sky Sports News."

Gerrard Injury Scare

BBC Sport - Football - Live - Wednesday's football

2144: Bad news for England and Liverpool - Steven Gerrard looks like he's done his hamstring in making a tackle and will be replaced by Peter Crouch.

Driving the Bandwagon: Jordan Henderson

Just remember that the Jordan Henderson bandwagon started here, at the beginning of the season.  In fact, based on his performances at the tail-end of LAST season I was picking him for my fantasy team in week one.

Fantasy Premier League Blog: The One Where Jeremy Picks a Team

Jeremy Spitzberg: there he is...
Jeremy Spitzberg: jordan henderson, 6.19
Jeremy Spitzberg: one please

And I talked him up in the comments of our Sunderland Season Preview.

I have a soccer crush on Jordan Henderson, and he's in my week 1 team. He should play wide left or center mid and will be a creative player taking kicks.

While he's been disappointing for fantasy - okay returns, but not value for money - I'm happy to see him get England honors today.