Season Preview - Liverpool

Quick Reminder, Real Life

What a crazy season it was for the Reds. To do it justice you’d probably have to write a book (and I hear Jeremy thinking to himself that this preview is entirely likely to turn into one the way I write). In the quick version we find the first half low-lighted by poor performances, the disasterous Joe Cole signing, Roy Hodgson being in over his head, a contentious change of ownership between two groups of Americans, and numerous debates online and in the press wondering whether Liverpool could possibly go down under the weight of all of the above.

As bad as the first half was, the second half was that good. New owners, back office staff, and manager made the bold move of selling off star Fernando Torres and replacing him with the excellent-so-far Luis Suarez and full-of-potential-but-overpriced Andy Carroll. The results improved dramatically and Raul Meireles proved to be more than adequate cover for oft-injured captain Steven Gerrard. All the drama aside, Liverpool had two major weaknesses last season - their left back position and playing away from Anfield where they could neither score nor keep the ball out of the net.

Quick Reminder, Fantasy

As crazy a season as it was for Liverpool on and off the pitch, it was no different for fantasy managers trying to figure this team out. Reina’s fortunes mimicked those of the club (bad early, better late). Meireles and Suarez had excellent second halves of the season while Carroll had a great first half while playing for Newcastle but injury dragged down his second half pretty badly. Finally, out of almost nowhere, Maxi Rodriguez had an absolutely amazing last two weeks which saw him get about a third of his overall output for the season. On the defensive side of the ball Martin Skertl was ever-present and had an OK season but the rest of the defenders were seemingly on a carousel due to injuries and general mediocrity.

Summer Changes

Notes on Valerenga v. Liverpool

After the first ten minutes....

• Nice to see Agger back to fitness and back in favor.
• All the early play down Liverpool's right with Downing and Johnson. I think the idea is that Downing will tend to cut inside on to his left foot and Johnson can overlap and exploit that space.  Might be something to watch when the season starts. Johnson is very expensive for a defender (13.37) but he will look to get forward. For the money I'll go with Zabaleta in week one and then Arsenal host Liverpool in week two, but your mileage may vary.
• Downing taking corners from the right, not Adam, but not taking them very well at all.
• Henderson is the midfielder breaking forward to try to support Carroll and Kuyt.
• Nice to see Kuyt getting a game at forward, but it's hard to see him playing there when Suarez returns.  Indeed it's hard to see him getting the wide-right berth back either, which is a bit of a shame.
• No Meireles today because of injury. I wonder if he would have played had he been fit, and who would make way -- the question we'll likely be asking all season about any number of Liverpool midfielders.

Valerenga 1 - 0 Liverpool

Downing is Not Moneyball

Downing Could Be A 'Moneyball' Buy | F365 Says

In some respects, Downing is a 'Moneyball' signing. Those of you that have read Michael Lewis's book will know that this approach is based on statistical objectivity, rather than subjective gut feelings or opinions. Instead of looking at a player's physical attributes, Billy Beane - the man around whom the book is based - would pay more attention to his statistics. Indeed, Beane would sometimes select players who his scouts actively advised against, as long as their numbers stacked up.

Beane adopted the 'sabermetrics' (a method of analysing baseball statistics objectively) approach with the Oakland A's, a baseball team towards the lower end of the financial spectrum in the MLB, because every dollar had to be spent wisely. Liverpool aren't exactly in the paupers section, but their resources are much more limited than many in the Premier League, so the same theory applies. John W. Henry and the Boston Red Sox won a couple of World Series on the back of that approach, and it looks like the theory is being carried over to Anfield.

In Downing, Liverpool are buying a statistically reliable footballer, who should in theory help get the best out of their current resources.

No, no, no.

Downing is NOT a "moneyball signing". As fashionable as it is to try to attribute that approach to Liverpool's new ownership growth that hugely misinterprets what moneyball means and what they are actually doing.

Look, it's no secret what their plan is. The article even makes the clearest case yet for what that is:

Perhaps the only attacking player that one imagines being a permanent fixture in that system is Andy Carroll, largely because at present Liverpool don't have another centre-forward capable of leading the line...

Therefore, much of Dalglish's strategy will be geared around exploiting Carroll's talents. It doesn't take a tactical genius to spot that much of Carroll's best work at Newcastle was done with Joey Barton pinging crosses onto his piratey head.

But the contention that Downing is a moneyball signing because he crosses the ball doesn't hold up because again, that's not moneyball.  First of all, that's not finding hidden value in a player based on advanced statistics as opposed to what the naked eye reveals.  That's just plain old-fashioned naked-eye work.  Downing is a winger who crosses the ball a lot.  I could tell you that and I can barely open a spreadsheet, much less interpret one. This is just team building 101.

Second, that's overlooking the "value" part of the moneyball equation.

[I]t's hard to contest that turning Downing into N'Zogbia and £10.5M doesn't represent a fantastic bit of business http://sbn.to/om9NNpless than a minute ago via bitly Favorite Retweet ReplyJeremy Spitzberg
jspitzberg

Liverpool overpaid for Downing. Explain it however you like - he's English, he solves a need, etc - 20million for Downing is over-the-odds. And it happened because it's SO CLEAR that he's English, and he solves a need. That's not moneyball.

The moneyball approach explains doesn't work for the Henderson signing either. Despite a surfeit of central midfielders Liverpool may have seen something in his cross rate when playing on the right side of midfield, or his successful pass ratio, that made them think that he can supply Carroll. But they still overpaid for Henderson. Adam too.

Looking at your needs and spending big to meet them isn't moneyball. Moneyball would have been saying that Gary McSheffrey looks statistically like another Frank Lampard and snatching him up relatively cheaply. And no, the moneyball approach doesn't always work out. But it's finding VALUE relative to more highly regarded, and paid, players and building a team around that value.

Downing isn't moneyball.

</rant>

Stewart Downing to Liverpool

Liverpool have completed (I understand) a £20 million move for Aston Villa's Stewart Downing, solving their need for a left-winger. My first thoughts on the deal:

Could Villa get Lucas, Spearing and/or Shelvey in part return for Downing? Villa need to replace Reo-Coker and retire Petrov. #needsless than a minute ago via web Favorite Retweet ReplyJeremy Spitzberg
jspitzberg

Adam to Liverpool

Liverpool Seal Charlie Adam Switch - SBNation.com

We've known it was coming for a while and now it appears to be official according to people all over the world wide webs.  The mysterious Liverpool summer in which they stockpile central midfielders and fail to address their core needs (LB, CB, and both wings).  It really leaves you wondering, doesn't it?

I like Adam as a player and he's certainly better than Henderson is right now.  That said, I'm not sure he's better than Meireles.  Whether he's better than Gerrard depends on which Gerrard shows up this year.  None of the above are better than Gerrard at his best but all of them might be better than broken-down, injury-plagued Gerrard.  Assuming that the Liverpool captain is somewhere in-between those two models coming into the new season, I have a hard time guessing where he falls in the pecking order.  One thing we do know is that unless he's physically unable to go, politics at Liverpool are such that he'll be in the line-up regardless of where age/injury have left his ability to perform. 

So what next for Liverpool? Does this signal the end of Meireles in red? (If Fab4 is leaving Arsenal they could do far worse than Meireles as a short term replacement while they're waiting for Ramsey, Wilshere, and the next young guy Wenger buys to grow into their prime.  Just a random thought but one I suspect will find its way into the gossip rags soon enough.  Alternatively, he'd be a great buy/exchange for Villa is they can't keep hold of Downing.

Season Preview: Aston Villa

As I did for the Arsenal preview, I'm going to make some assumptions related to ongoing transfer speculation.  I'm going to assume that like Everton did last season with Lescott, Villa will capitulate to the huge offer from Man City on Milner and end up with Ireland and a bunch of cash.  Since I see Ireland plus cash for Milner as being great business for Villa - especially if they put that cash to good use - I don't think this will change the Villa outlook too dramatically if it turns out I'm wrong and they keep Milner.  I'm also assuming that Villa will keep Ashley Young away from the grasp of Spurs, et al.

Overall Outlook - It must be frustrating being a Villa supporter or even in management.  They have done some excellent business on a relatively tight budget over the last few years but seem to be moving backward more than forward.  The first team is as good as nearly any around and for the first time in ages there is actually some quality depth, especially at the back.  The problem is that while Villa are improving the old fashioned way, people with much deeper pockets are moving up the pecking order faster and potentially starting to undo some of that great work.  The insertion of City into the Top Four mix, the emergence of Spurs as a Champions League team with the increased revenue that goes with it, and the potential for Liverpool to be rescued from financial ruin by either Chinese or Syrian investors means that clubs like Everton and Villa are realistically going to have a hard time fighting it out for 7th place.  That said, there is every chance that Liverpool won't complete their sale in time to make a difference until January and that Spurs will wilt on the big stage (see Everton when they made the Champions League) and Citeh will continue to search for the right combination of players and manager to exploit their deep pockets and Villa could challenge for 4th.

In praise of well-chosen one-gamers

Stewart Downing
2 GOALS SCORED
3 SHOTS ON TARGET
1 Match Winning Goal
1 Successful crosses
27.5 Points

James Milner
3 ASSISTS
3 Successful crosses
20 Points

Downing Starts and Scores

When last we saw him.

Home to Hull City this weekend, he suddenly becomes a very interesting pick at 8.64.

Here's his day according to the BBC.

45:00+0:05 Stewart Downing sends in a cross, Richard Hughes manages to make a clearance.

73:41 GOAL - Stewart Downing:
Portsmouth 1 - 3 Aston Villa Stewart Downing finds the back of the net with a headed goal from close range. Portsmouth 1-3 Aston Villa.

78:04 Tal Ben-Haim gives away a free kick for an unfair challenge on Ashley Young. The free kick is swung in right-footed by Stewart Downing, Younes Kaboul manages to make a clearance.

79:53 A cross is delivered by Stewart Downing, save made by Asmir Begovic.

80:31 Stewart Downing produces a left-footed shot from outside the box and misses left.

Nothing too outrageous.  Young and Milner (who also scored) still taking the corners.  Young and Gabby also had shots on target.  I was looking at Carew just under 8.  Now I wonder... Downing for a bit more? Or will Carew benefit from the additional service?

Around the Premier League

An all-encompassing round-up of the Premier League's weekend action -- on the pitch, in the boardroom and on the treatment table.

Friendlies
Jo at the double for Toffees
Posh slayed by slick Villa
Arsenal held on Rosicky's return
City plundered by Pirates
Owen nets winner on debut
Thomas nets on Tigers debut
Round-up: Spurs ease to win
Cherries suffer Spurs defeat
Grant strike sinks Latics
Round-up: Blackburn hold Roma
Round-up: Stoke embarrassed

Transfers
Adebayor completes City move
Wigan finalise Scotland deal
Manucho heads to Valladolid
Everton reject Man City bid for Lescott
Forest agree Gunter fee
Thomas handed Tigers chance
Villa sign Downing

Injuries
Arteta taking recovery slowly
Ferguson sets date for Hargreaves return
McShane concern for Bruce
Cole has new knee knock

Odd Moves?

Jeremy and I were IMing earlier today about some of the moves that seem likely to be completed in the next day or two. I'll spare you the transcript - Jeremy likes that gimmick more than I do [I sure do... and here it is] - but here are some thoughts:

1. Fulham striker Zamora joins Hull in £5m deal - Huh? I don't object to Hull picking up Zamora for depth, he's an adequate 3rd or 4th striker for a team with aspirations of being mid-table. On the other hand, paying £5M for him seems, well, insanely high. In my opinion this shows how lazy or unable to scout outside the obvious places - those being other people's leftovers, the Championship, the SPL, and maybe some of the other Continental leagues. Steve Bruce may get some flack for non-Argentine/non-Brazilian South and Central Americans but they're certainly better value for the money if you're willing to do the work to find that talent.


2. Sunderland confirm Crouch talks - I don't really have anything to say about Crouch one way or the other with the exception of the fact that he's definitely not a replacement for Cisse as Kenwyne Jones' partner. I assume this move would imply that KJ is on his way elsewhere - seems like a little bit of a downgrade to me but only marginally. Seems like the Black Cats would be better served letting Crouchy head to Fulham and focusing on that Darren Bent rumor.


3. Villa try to clinch Downing deal
   Villa working on Downing capture - I actually like this one a lot more than Jeremy does. One of Villa's biggest problems last season was that the squad was too small. They now have Ashley Young, James Milner, Gabby Agbonlahor, and Downing to rotate between two wing spots and one "small" striker to partner Heskey/Carew. If Petrov fills in Barry's spot as a holding midfielder which he was doing reasonably well when asked last season then they're in pretty good shape outside of the defence. Maybe a little expensive for someone who might not be a first choice starter every week but still a good deal if they can afford it.

---

As threatened, here's the 'blog roundtable' we had over instant message today.

[08:49] JSpitzberg: EJ doing well for FUL in their pre-season
[08:49] JSpitzberg: set up 2 for nevland yesterday
[08:49] Neal J Thurman: wow
[08:49] Neal J Thurman: could be a nice thing for him if he can get some PT
[08:50] JSpitzberg: welcome back
[08:51] JSpitzberg: odd xfer rumours...
[08:51] JSpitzberg: zamora to hull for 5mil
[08:52] JSpitzberg: not odd, but surely overpriced
[08:52] JSpitzberg: crouch to sunderland? thought he was going to ful to replace zamora
[08:52] JSpitzberg: and downing to villa...
[08:52] JSpitzberg: who have the left wing covered, thank you very much
[09:12] Neal J Thurman: the only one that makes much sense to me is Downing - Villa's big problem is squad depth so having a mix and match of Downing, Gabby, BFAY, and Milner (plus maybe Bentley?) for two wings and the "small" striker seems reasonable
[09:13] Neal J Thurman: assuming that Kenwyne heads somewhere (maybe FUL?) if Crouchy goes to SUN
[09:13] Neal J Thurman: Zamora is too expensive at that price

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[12:33] Neal J Thurman: Any chance that Downing to Villa signals that BFAY will be moving along?
[12:35] JSpitzberg: that was my first thought
[12:35] JSpitzberg: but i just don't see that
[12:35] JSpitzberg: who knows
[12:35] JSpitzberg: downing also played through the middle a little
[12:35] JSpitzberg: off a striker
[12:35] JSpitzberg: so maybe they can convert him like barry to a left-sided, central player
[12:36] Neal J Thurman: would fit his pace (err, lack of) a little better
[12:36] JSpitzberg: and if petrov has really found a role holding in mid...
[12:36] JSpitzberg: could work
[12:37] JSpitzberg: but who takes kicks? ;-)
[12:37] JSpitzberg: sure hope it's BFAY
[12:37] JSpitzberg: downing hasn't met a cross he couldn't over- or under- hit
[12:37] Neal J Thurman: lol - excellent question with the worst possible likely answer is that they get split up between Downing/BFAY/Milner/Petrov
[12:38] Neal J Thurman: but agreed on Downing not being an upgrade in that regard
[12:40] JSpitzberg: they also played downing on the right at times
[12:40] JSpitzberg: so he can cover milner
[12:40] JSpitzberg: but not sure i agree with that
[12:40] Neal J Thurman: would work in a pinch
[12:40] JSpitzberg: not sure you can look at anything boro did last season and say "hey, we should really try that"
[12:41] Neal J Thurman: they definitely need some additional cover
[12:41] JSpitzberg: 12million worth of cover
[12:41] JSpitzberg: and someone who needs to play to have a shot at 2010
[12:41] Neal J Thurman: seems to be the price of admission for a decent player these days - see Zamora for 5M
[12:41] JSpitzberg: ugh... that's unconscionable
[12:41] Neal J Thurman: it really is
[12:42] JSpitzberg: and fulham bought him for the same price
[12:42] Neal J Thurman: but in fairness, Hull paid much more than that for someone who only has one leg last January
[12:42] JSpitzberg: 4 goals later and they don't lose money on the deal?
[12:42] JSpitzberg: hull are getting desperate, me thinks
[12:42] Neal J Thurman: agreed
[12:42] JSpitzberg: we'll hear about zamora's work rate and how he helps the team
[12:43] Neal J Thurman: OR Zamora recaptures that WHU form of two seasons ago and Jummy is healthy and they're a much better team
[12:43] JSpitzberg: but i don't remember AJ or duece terrorizing anyone off zamora's work rate either
[12:43] Neal J Thurman: but probably the former
[12:43] JSpitzberg: did that form last more than a month?
[12:43] JSpitzberg: anomaly
[12:44] Neal J Thurman: probably
[13:03] JSpitzberg: melo to juve
[13:03] JSpitzberg: back to the drawing board
[13:43] Neal J Thurman: yup :-(
[13:44] Neal J Thurman: although I had a hard time getting TOO excited about him after Brazil gave up two early goals to the US :-)
[13:44] JSpitzberg: maybe they can get lucio instead
[13:44] JSpitzberg: LUCIO SMASH!
[13:44] Neal J Thurman: :-)
[14:11] Neal J Thurman: I still want them to go after Marco Senna
[14:16] JSpitzberg: old and injured
[14:16] JSpitzberg: jeremy toulalan!
[14:16] JSpitzberg: or if you want an injured player, how about poaching mammadou (sp?) diarra from real madrid?