Good night, and good luck.
Week 7 Team
After lots of thought, but surely little understanding, here's my week 7 team.
Good night, and good luck.
Good night, and good luck.
Arsenal Financials: Dead Weight Wages the Issue
BBC Sport - Arsenal financial future secure - Ivan Gazidis:
So, even in a "down" year that happened during a down economy, Arsenal are extremely profitable. Here is the big question that their numbers should be stirring up as everyone focuses their time talking about the transfer dollars in and out:
What has the impact of the transfers in and out on the "rising wage bill" been? I'm sure Nasri, Clichy, and Cesc were on big wages but Arteta, Yossi, Mertesacker, and Gervinho must certainly be on big wages as well and as you can clearly count, there are more of them coming in than going out.
The other important question from a financial standpoint is the wage bill impact of the players who are likely paid above their production including Rosicky, Diaby, Squillaci, and Almunia on the current roster and guys like Bendtner and Vela who are on loan. How far forward Arsenal's obligation to players who are, while not entirely dead weight if healthy, are definitely a huge drag on the a wage bill that could certainly be more productive if some of the big numbers watching from the sidelines were removed from it.
If Arsenal are to make the sorts of moves that will at least restore them to a decided position of superiority over Spurs and Liverpool while being more threatening at the heels of Chelsea, City, and United then they have to clean up the dead weight on the wage bill and make room for a couple of players we can see they have the cash to acquire on the transfer market.
Injuries and Suspensions
No big intro today, other than to highlight the fact that Rooney and Chicharito being back probably has us all scrambling to figure out how to align our teams to get as many United players as possible into our line-ups against Norwich.
The Week Ahead, Part 2 - Player Picks
I have to admit that my first experiences watching a Roberto Mancini-coached team was a good one. It was in a pre-scandal Italy (at least the recent one). Inter Milan were still a plucky 3rd or 4th best team fighting to keep up with Milan and Juve. The thing that I remember enjoying about them is that you could see just about anything from them on any given weekend. They could play the typical Italian grinding style and win 1-0, they could go up 3-0 and find a way to give away that lead for a thrilling conclusion or they could go down 3-0 and come all the way back to win 4-3. It was a win of the latter type that I recall as my first meaningful recollection of Mancini. It wasn't enough to get me to follow Serie A religiously but it was enough for me to pull for Inter.
I mention this because the same sort of pattern seems to be unfolding at Manchester City. The budget is bigger. The upside of the talent at his disposal is higher. Still, there appear to be two common characteristics that bond his Inter teams with his City teams. The first is their variance in mental discipline. No matter what has happened in the matches and even the minutes leading up to a specific instant in time appears to be entirely irrelevant to predicting what will happen next. Their first choice players will be playing poorly (like last weekend) and someone deep in the doghouse (Balotelli) or in a deep slump (Milner) score goals. You just never seem to know what is going to happen next. The week before it was looking great for the first 60 or 70 minutes and then collapsing and giving up a 2-0 lead on the road in the last 20 minutes rather than creating a 2 goal lead in the last 20 minutes.
The other thing that binds these two Mancini teams is the presence of some, shall we say, unique personalities. This season's edition features Tevez's increasingly bizarre and petulant behavior, de Jong's no-holds-barred challenges (and occasional dirty play), Dzeko's seemingly from out of nowhere personality, and of course Balotelli-being-Balotelli. For me, since I really have little for or against City historically, the combination of these two factors and Mancini's ability to manage a team to just about any outcome has made them a really fun story to follow this season. May it long continue rather than evolving the way Chelsea did under similar financial circumstances. It would be a shame if City became more ruthless but at the same time less interesting to watch.
OK, on to the player picks:
I mention this because the same sort of pattern seems to be unfolding at Manchester City. The budget is bigger. The upside of the talent at his disposal is higher. Still, there appear to be two common characteristics that bond his Inter teams with his City teams. The first is their variance in mental discipline. No matter what has happened in the matches and even the minutes leading up to a specific instant in time appears to be entirely irrelevant to predicting what will happen next. Their first choice players will be playing poorly (like last weekend) and someone deep in the doghouse (Balotelli) or in a deep slump (Milner) score goals. You just never seem to know what is going to happen next. The week before it was looking great for the first 60 or 70 minutes and then collapsing and giving up a 2-0 lead on the road in the last 20 minutes rather than creating a 2 goal lead in the last 20 minutes.
The other thing that binds these two Mancini teams is the presence of some, shall we say, unique personalities. This season's edition features Tevez's increasingly bizarre and petulant behavior, de Jong's no-holds-barred challenges (and occasional dirty play), Dzeko's seemingly from out of nowhere personality, and of course Balotelli-being-Balotelli. For me, since I really have little for or against City historically, the combination of these two factors and Mancini's ability to manage a team to just about any outcome has made them a really fun story to follow this season. May it long continue rather than evolving the way Chelsea did under similar financial circumstances. It would be a shame if City became more ruthless but at the same time less interesting to watch.
OK, on to the player picks:
Holden Injured Again
American midfielder Stuart Holden to miss another six months with knee injury - Soccer Insider - The Washington Post:
It is rare that I get to link the blog of my favorite writer on US Soccer as there aren't many cross-over topics between his blog (mostly focused on the USMNT and MLS) and our Premier League and Premier League Fantasy blog.
Sadly, my opportunity comes on the occasion of Stuart Holden's relapse to the ranks of the long-term injured. Apparently he wasn't all the way healed and by coming back either unearthed or aggravated his condition. He required additional surgery yesterday and appears to be out until the start of next season.
Huge bummer for fans of Bolton, the USMNT, and fantasy managers everywhere hoping he'd get back to the form he flashed early last season.
Good luck for a speedy and full recovery to Mr. Holden.
The Week Ahead, Part 1 - The Schedule
Good to see Olof Mellberg again. It's been a while.
In case you hadn't guessed, I am watching Arsenal vs. Olympiokos on DVR as I write this column. I figured I'd better watch because I need to catch up on all the midweek excitement that I started missing out on yesterday while I was on the road for work. Jeremy wrote about the drama at Manchester City and we've started to see stories elsewhere on topics related to the quality of Manchester United minus Wayne Rooney after their second consecutive draw to an inferior opponent.
The story line coming out of Arsenal seems likely to be the effectiveness of the unusual line-up that Wenger trotted out for the home tie with the Greek side. If we didn't know Wenger better we'd guess that a line-up featuring Chamakh, Ox, Santos, Rosicky, and Frimpong would be one that would feature in the Carling Cup or the earlier stages of the FA Cup, not the Champions League group stage after dropping 2 points late in their opener in Germany. Now, we DO know Wenger and for that reason we can be reasonably assured that his Carling Cup team will be significantly younger than this one.
[Match Update] The returns are positive early as I'm only two paragraphs in and the Ox made a nice move across the box and finished with aplomb. [/Match Update]
The topic of The Ox brings me to another Arsenal related topic that underscores a point I made a few weeks back about how difficult and/or unusual it is for innovators like Wenger to be able to repeat the magic a second or third time once his rivals have caught up or surpassed the initial innovations that made him special in the first place.
Wenger's real trick was identifying undervalued "properties" and those opportunities generally came from one or two places - players like Vieira or Henry who were under-performing on the benches of big clubs elsewhere and players from lower profile countries or leagues. That second group of players tended to come from places like West Africa that most clubs hadn't yet realized was a hotbed of emerging talent. In the supply and demand-driven world of transfer economics, the relative lack of suitors meant low prices.
[Match Update] Nice ball in from Santos for a streaking ChamWow and then an even better follow-up for Arsenal's second goal. That guy would be a fantasy force and a line-up fixture if he weren't, you know, forced to defend. If Arsenal played with a true left midfielder in the Ashley Young/Stuart Downing mold, I'd advocate for Santos to be that guy and all the better since he's listed (without irony apparently) as a defender. As I was finishing this mini-update off ChamWow got a great opportunity and couldn't finish, what happened to him? [/Match Update]
A funny thing happened on the way to this model continuing to produce for Arsenal and Wenger, they either stopped pushing the frontier of emerging talent. With the widespread realization that a bunch of African nations produce a great deal of talent, the competition and prices for that talent has gone up. As other clubs have gone to places like Uruguay, Paraguay, Mexico, and the US to find relatively cheap talents like Luis Suarez, Chicharito and Clint Dempsey. Until the summer acquisitions of both a Japanese and Costa Rican player, Arsenal had been conspicuously slow to either enter or find any success in these emerging markets for talent. Carlos Vela has been their only real brush with any of these emerging countries.
Instead, they have been spending their time and resources on recruiting expensive domestic and continental talent like Ox, Walcott, Nasri, and Ramsey at the "up and coming" level and players like Arshavin, Gervinho, Arteta, Mertesacker, and Vermaelen at the "established" level. It isn't necessarily a complaint related to the players acquired but a question about the ability to succeed if they are going to be competing for players everyone is watching. If guys like Aguero, Silva, and Mata represent the best "obvious" players that could be bought, it means that Arsenal are going to try to win by buying the second tier of "obvious" players. Their system of play has been successful and fun to watch but it isn't sufficiently superior to elevate a team of second tier talents over a team of first tier talents.
[Match Update] Can we just ship Arshavin off now. I just saw the reverse angle of Olympiokos' comically-easy first goal. As the Greek player steamed toward the ball he eventually headed into the net, Arshavin - the closest Gunner - just sat there and watched like it was beneath him to track a late attacking run. If that's how he feels, then why not at least spread the field and be further up for a quick counter attack? Just no excuse for wandering aimlessly NEAR the area without putting out any effort to defend while you're there. [/Match Update]
In case you're wondering, the above was inspired indirectly by an email conversation I had with Simon Kuper (and yes, I'm shamelessly name-dropping) in which he called the types of books he writes "useful". I figured I'd better continue to use what I learned from reading Soccernomics and his column from Financial Times [Free Registration Required].
I know I write about Arsenal a fair amount but hopefully you continue to find the perspective both unbiased and at least a little bit different than what you're reading elsewhere. With that, we're on to our analysis of the upcoming schedule:
Week 7 Barn Door Team
I have three different options for you to choose from this week. Please vote in the comments below.
First there is the real Barn Door team, the one I came out of the weekend with:
I was nervous about going all in on the North London derby, but surely there are goals there.
Then came the news about Tevez and Dzeko, and all of a sudden Balotelli (God help us all) looks like a great option, at Rovers. So out goes RvP, who to be fair was flattered by a 10-man Bolton side, and we shake up the team with the extra money.
First there is the real Barn Door team, the one I came out of the weekend with:
Then came the news about Tevez and Dzeko, and all of a sudden Balotelli (God help us all) looks like a great option, at Rovers. So out goes RvP, who to be fair was flattered by a 10-man Bolton side, and we shake up the team with the extra money.
Tevez and Dzeko in hot water with Mancini
Exit stage right.
The news coming out of Manchester City's 0-2 loss to Bayern Munich is explosive. Evidently, Carlos Tevez refused to come on as a substitute. As a result,
Roberto Mancini tells the post-match press conference that Carlos Tevez will "never, never play for City again".In addition, it's also being reported on Twitter that Dzeko will also be benched.
It won't get as much coverage but Mancini was "furious" with Edin Dzeko too - "he will sit the next game next to me"This may be the chance for
UPDATE: Evidently, Dzeko had a strop when he was substituted.
Mancini also had strong words for striker Edin Dzeko who also reacted poorly at being a sub.
“As for Dzeko, if he plays better next time, then maybe he can stay on the pitch.Video, after the jump.
“If we want to improve to the level of Bayern Munich, some players need to improve their behaviour.
“Dzeko was unhappy but I should be the one who is unhappy after his performance, not Dzeko.
“This is the last time that any player moves his head from side to side like this when they are substituted. You can feel upset inside but keep it inside.”
UPDATE, Part the Second:
''Manchester City can confirm that striker Carlos Tevez has been suspended until further notice for a maximum period of two weeks,'' read a club statement.
''The player's suspension is pending a full review into his alleged conduct during Tuesday evening's 2-0 defeat to Bayern Munich. The player will not be considered for selection or take part in training whilst the review is under way.''
Rooney could miss 'weeks'
Sir Alex Ferguson: Wayne Rooney could miss 'weeks' - ESPN Soccernet
Sir Alex Ferguson has revealed that Wayne Rooney could miss "a few weeks" of Manchester United's season.More on these injuries as we find out the details.
United served up a surprise at Stoke on Saturday, as they arrived at the Britannia Stadium without their star man. Ferguson told ESPN after the 1-1 draw that the club had endured a "nightmare" training session on Friday. And it appears Rooney was one of the casualties with a hamstring injury.
"Rooney's is not a serious injury, but it was enough to keep him out today, and I think maybe for a few weeks," Ferguson said.
United lost Jonny Evans in the warm-up, while Javier Hernandez lasted less than 10 minutes before limping off.
First XI - What We Learned in Week 6
Sometimes there's no substitute for a good old fashioned lesson/reminder about what not to do in picking your fantasy team. The first lesson I (re)learned this past weekend is that Friday trading with no additional information will generally lead to you out-thinking yourself.
What do I mean? On Friday, without any news from Wenger, I got it in my head that Gibbs might not start and that I should move to Boyata as a "more stable" enabler pick at the back. This despite watching the Rovers match last weekend in which Santos essentially handed Rovers the two goals they scored themselves by playing Yakubu onside (even if one of the two wasn't actually onside, he was playing unnecessarily close and made it easier for the linesman to make the mistake). Regardless, I made the switch and more so than losing out on that many points (2.5 for Boyata vs. 6 for Gibbs) I lost a likely starter from ARS for most of the year at 2.something for an occasional starter from BOL for a similar price. Not a wise move.
The other lesson I (re)learned was that you shouldn't try to get too cute. The other move I made on Friday was that I initially decided that it would be a good idea to double down on CHE defenders. I swapped Richards out and brought in Luiz thinking he would start given the modest opposition. An email exchange with Jeremy (fortunately) convinced me that Luiz was probably not going to start. For some reason, after making that determination I didn't go straight back to Richards but started over-thinking my choice and decided to go with Smalling. Indefensible move really. He's playing away to a solid team vs. Richards playing at home against a solid team. I let the NdJ injury get into my head too much and it ended with zero points when Smalling was left out of the squad vs. the 8 that Richards got for his modest phantom points and a clean sheet. The overall result was about 10 points that I got vs. 23 or so that I would have gotten if I'd stuck to my guns and followed the rules.
The third thing I (re)learned was to listen to my own advice. I called the Ramires performance but didn't pull the trigger much to my own chagrin.
OK, enough of my bitching, on to the more important observations about Week 6 in the Premier League that apply to all of our teams (and occasionally the real world too).
Injuries and Suspensions
We're finally back on schedule here at blog headquarters and since it is Friday morning on the East Coast of the United States that means it is time for all the news that is fit to print, err, type and link to about injuries and suspensions and how they impact your fantasy choices for the weekend.
The Week Ahead, Part Two - Player Picks
Sometimes we, and by we I mean the blog, pay the price for this not being a full time job. There are times when the job that pays the bills takes precedence over the enjoyment of bringing you blog posts so long that your bosses, significant others, non-fantasy-playing friends, and children complain about the time spent on them on occasion. I enjoy writing them as much as (I hope) you enjoy reading them. Unfortunately, Wednesday and yesterday found me focused from dawn until dusk on my day job and with only enough energy to write part 1 of The Week Ahead. Because I'm guessing you'd rather have the player picks as soon as I can get them to you versus waiting until I come up with a good-sized rant to open the column, I'll dispense with the usual prelude and get right to the picks.
The Week Ahead, Part 1 - The Schedule
I have to be honest, I'm not feeling much in a ranting mood today. A mid-week full of Carling Cup matches doesn't provide a lot of fodder for a good rant. So, in the interest of keeping it brief (for once) I'll move directly to the schedule analysis which, I know, tends to go a little long anyway.
Agger out for a month
Rib facture sidelines Agger | Liverpool Football Club News, Fixtures, Results, Gossip
Liverpool defender Daniel Agger could be out for up to four weeks after fracturing a rib in Sunday's 4-0 Barclays Premier League defeat at Tottenham.Evidently Daglish is down-playing the injury. Regardless, Liverpool can't continue to play center-backs out wide. None of Carragher, Skrtel or Agger have the pace for the role as was shown so starkly this weekend.
The Denmark international sustained the injury when he fell heavily in the first half and had to be substituted before half-time.
However, this doesn't have to be an issue. Even with Glen Johnson and Martin Kelly injured (hamstrings), Daglish still has youngsters John Flanagan and Jack Robinson able to play the position. And he hasn't been shy about using them in the past.
At home to Wolves this weekend, I would hope that he plays Flanagan at right back. That would be great for fantasy managers as well as Flanagan is listed at 3.96 in the Y! game. Right now I have Boyata (@Arsenal) as an enabler and while I can't move to Flanagan, I would definitely explore the option.
Hatem Ben Arfa set for Newcastle return
We're as suprised as anyone.
Hatem Ben Arfa set to return to action for Newcastle - ESPN Soccernet
Hatem Ben Arfa will finally return to the Newcastle side almost a year after suffering a double leg break against Manchester City.It seems like the Carling Cup match will be his first introduction back into the team. I wouldn't expect him to start Premier League matches just yet. Pardew continues,
...Now he will pull on the black and white shirt on Wednesday night as Newcastle travel to struggling Championship side Nottingham Forest in the Carling Cup.
"What's important for him is to make sure he grabs the work-rate that we have got in the team. If he grabs that, he's got a good chance of getting into this team.That's a shame with Rovers the visitors to St. James' Park this weekend.
However, when he does play, he'll be the attacking hub of the team. Likely he'll play off a lone-striker.
"He will have that number 10 role that Demba Ba did on Saturday and did very, very well for us, so that's where he's got good competition."I've got Cabaye in my team at the moment, but if HBA comes through the Cup match unscathed, picking him up at 4.29 will be very tempting. At the least he'll be a Barn Door selection with Newcastle's upcoming schedule including Rovers, @Wolves, Spurs, Wigan, @Stoke.
First XI - What We Learned in Week 5
In theory when you're a journalist you don't root for teams and therefore all you're looking for is an angle, something interesting to write about that will get people to buy your newspaper, click on your link, or head to the Facebook page to make some pithy comments about your genius idiocy. As much as we'd all like to believe that our journalists stick to this standard (because they tell us over and over that they do), people don't get into sports journalism because it is incredibly lucrative or because it is likely to get you a lot of acclaim with the opposite sex. No, they get into it because they are huge sports fans who aren't athletic enough to play sports for a living and this is the most feasible way to earn a living being involved with a kids game while still being able to afford to eat.
One of the best things about the blogging revolution is that it has removed the necessity to keep up the illusion that those of us that write about the game don't also have personal feelings about the teams and players. I try to remain as objective as I can when doing analysis for fantasy purposes because fantasy is a game of numbers and you'll only read what I have to write if my advice is helpful. Favoring the teams and players I LIKE versus the ones who are likely to be productive will lead to people thinking my analysis sucks and turning to one or more of the other options available for their fantasy league preparation. That said, in the spaces around the objective fantasy analysis, I am not shy about letting you know who I like and dislike, respect and don't respect, root for and root against, etc.
The reason I give you this preamble is that it has taken me a while to arrive at something I'm happy about writing this week because this weekend was a pretty depressing one for me as a fan. It was the moment that I finally decided that Arsene Wenger is done. I'll propose a potential remedy for their current ailments below but I have no sense that it will happen. To heap general misery on top of the state of Arsenal and its impact on me is the fact that almost all of the meaningful storylines this past weekend were negative. Here's the run down from I to XI...
Week 6 Barn Door Team
It's all change at the back for me as Kieran Gibbs seems to have lost his place to Andre Santos. Who knows what is going on at Arsenal but the Brazilian did but up good points against Rovers, and gets Bolton at home this week. Another flying (former) Arsenal fullback, Armand Traore, gets the nod too. I was hoping to get him last week but didn't like the way he limped out of the Newcastle match previously. My loss as he even got an assist. Queens Park Rangers host Aston Villa, which isn't a great matchup, but I do like the option.
Another QPR new boy, Shaun Wright-Phillips, remains a bright spot in my otherwise run-of-the-mill lineup. He continued his good form in an advanced midfield role, and at 4 and change is becoming an indispensable player.
Maybe not as indispensable as David SIlva, however. This was Silva's worst week to date, but he's still putting up points with the promise of continued returns. Edin Dzeko and Sergio Aguero round out the Manchester City contingent. Hosting Everton isn't an ideal matchup, but I dare anyone to start dropping these players.
That being said, I did move former Gunner Nasri out for current Gunner Mikel Arteta. "Who knows what is going on at Arsenal" but Arteta scored a goal and was taking corner kicks. His price jumped as a result and it was worth getting him in the team before that happened.
The final midfield spot is a bit of an enabler. Yohan Cabaye is becoming the almost man for Newcastle, striking the bar against Aston Villa on a lovely snap shot from range. However, I like that he's shooting and taking kicks. Newcastle also host Rovers on Sunday and that seems to pay off. I was origianlly looking at Gabriel Obertan as a true enabler, but picking Dedryck Boyata in defence allowed me to move off someone whom I'm taking to calling "The Invisible Man". I just never see him on the pitch. Sometimes I do see him, but I've yet to see him make an impactful play. Until then, I'll keep my distance.
Of course, all this movement is to afford Wayne Rooney. I didn't keep him against Chelsea and I almost paid a very heavy price. He ended the day with a respectable 9.5 points, but missed a penalty, hit the post on another shot, and had Dimitar Berbatov skew what would have been a assist off target. Manchester United are at Stoke this week, and as we know that's a tough place to play. In fact I originally had Javier Hernandez in the team, but with his potential injury layoff combined with Rooney's irresistible form at the moment, I don't want to take the chance of missing out.
Who's on your barn door team this morning?
Hernandez out for a "few weeks"
So long, and thanks for all the fish.
UPDATE: ManUtd.com is reporting that Welbeck is available for the Red Devils' League Cup match against Leeds United.
Danny Welbeck has revealed he is feeling fit again after returning to training and is ready to make a comeback when called upon by Sir Alex.
The striker started the season in superb form but pulled up with a hamstring problem after scoring in the win against Arsenal at Old Trafford. After making a speedy recovery, the exciting England international is delighted to be pushing for selection again.
"I trained late last week and had a little rest on Sunday before coming back in again on Monday," he told ManUtd.com. "I'm feeling good.
"I don't know the squad yet for Leeds but, if I'm called upon, I'm always prepared to be there as I feel ready. I wouldn't be training if I wasn't."
UPDATE: Seemingly we did indeed over-react. Y!Eurosport reports a statement from Chicharito's agent.
"Nothing, it's just a bump, nothing more," said Eduardo Hernandez. "It looked like (his absence) was longer, they were looking for a fracture, that's why they ran those tests on him. "I expect him to be training without incident on Wednesday."
from The Guardian
"We will have to see what the damage is in the morning but his [Javier Hernández's] leg is very numb and he could be out for a couple of weeks."As Sir Alex says, we'll see. He was pretty critical of his own players, including Wayne Rooney, in the interview and seemed to be reaching a bit to keep the motivation high. I would expect Hernandez to be back sooner rather than later, but we'll see.
Wigan's Rodallega suffers serious knee injury
Wigan's Rodallega suffers serious knee injury - Yahoo! Eurosport
Wigan Athletic's Colombia forward Hugo Rodallega could be sidelined for up to three months after damaging knee ligaments near the end of their 3-1 defeat at Everton in the Premier League on Saturday, manager Roberto Martinez said.
Hugo has damaged the medial ligament in his right knee and it doesn't look good," Martinez was quoted as saying on Wigan's official website (www.wiganlatics.co.uk).
Di Santo has been playing well, and now it doesn't look like he'll have any competition for the starting role until Christmas.
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