The Week Ahead

Funny that on today of all days, SAF was asked questions about whether the group stages of the Champions League were just a cash grab or if there was any purpose behind them.  Well, I have to say that for FC Zurich there is without a doubt a purpose behind the group stages.  In the same way that every American who was present for the World Cup draw against eventual champions Italy in 2006 will never forget it because of the quality of the opponents (and because we were jobbed out of the deserved victory) - Zurich supporters will not forget their famous win over AC Milan at the San Siro today.  OK, maybe Milan aren't the team they have been in years past but Zurich have NEVER been that club so a win over the famous Italians on their home turf is a big deal.

The cynics who talk about the futility of supporting a team that has no chance to win the title (whether we are talking about the Premier League, Champions League, or any other sporting endeavor) simply don't get it.  For all of the Manchester United supporters (regardless of what you think about their "right" to support the Red Devils) there may be championships but there is mostly disappointment - not winning every year, not winning every week, not winning by enough, not winning with enough style - you get the idea.  Think about the fact that supporters of FC Zurich or Burnley have already had one of their best years ever.  Burnley was promoted to the Prem and then they beat ManYoo.  My guess is that they'll be talking about this year for years and years.  Meanwhile, ManYoo supporters - despite winning last season and being in first position now - have bemoaned the loss of CRon, been concerned with the composition of their squad, and NOT won the Champions League.  In short ManYoo supporters have had something of a forgettable 2009.

Just something to think about the next time you're questioning your choice to follow a team that doesn't contend for honors every season.  Keep your expectations reasonable and enjoy it when your club far exceeds those expectations and know that your counterparts who support far more fashionable clubs won't be able to do the same.

OK, on to the analysis...

Save money. Live better.

Steven Gerrard is currently 21.33 and has been producing well, but there are cheaper alternatives producing better results, especially across the front line. But to get those players - Rooney, van Persie, Kuyt, etc - you'll need that Gerrard money. So as a quick experiment in lieu of the Monday Morning Manager - for now as I just don't have the time to write the MMM at the moment - let's see if we can put together a half-decent midfield for this week's matches spending no more than 21.33.

Benitez returns home

via YahooUK!/Eurosport:

Christian Benitez has flown back to Ecuador, after the Birmingham striker's father was involved in a car accident.

Blues did not hesitate in giving the forward permission to return to his homeland and manager Alex McLeish admits it is doubtful as to whether Benitez will be available to face Burnley at the weekend.

I've been touting Chucho for a while now and finally picked him last week. He returned an honest 8pts for and investment of under 7 so I was happy enough. I had already sold him on the barn door, however, to try to boost my forward line. So best wishes for a speedy recovery and we'll be excited to consider him again upon his return.

How did you do this weekend?

I had a mixed weekend.  I got contributions from most every player, but had two holes in my team - Hutton and Gomez - and didn't have Torres, and the less likely Keane.  So another weekend of consolidating my stranglehold on the midtable.

Still Given to play today, but I feel like we "all" have him.

Given - ??
Hutton - 0
Vermaelen - 9.5
Heitinga - 12
Gomez - 0
Gerrard - 15.5
O'Hara - 6.5
Lennon - 6
Chucho - 8
Defoe - 11
Drogba - 14
----------------
82.5 with Given to play

A fuller wrap-up to come in the Monday Morning Manager after MAC/WHU. But for now let us know how you did in the comments.

Barn Door Live - Sept. 26th

FYI - My team is Given, Verm, Heitinga, SeaBass, Lamps, O'Hara, Lennon, Jordi Gomez, Hunt, Drogba, Rooney

Injuries and Suspensions

Here we go again.  For those who want a quick summary you can find the PhysioRoom.com widget in the middle column if you scroll down a bit.  They aren't perfect but it's about as comprehensive a resource as you can have in one place.  One thing I don't know is if they follow the American convention for the meanings of terms like "doubtful" (25% likely to play); "questionable" (50% likely to play) and "probable" (75% likely to play).  That's generally how I interpret those words after years and years of being trained that way by NFL injury reports (just thought I'd let you know).

Here's the quick rundown of each match, the injury and suspension situation, and what it means to you, the fantasy manager...

Mmm, delicious!

So here's a new feature for the blog.

I'm going to be tagging what I read on the web using the social bookmarking service, delicious.com.  You can follow along here, or better yet, I'll be including the links down the sidebar (middle column).  Some of these links will surely find its way into blog posts but others may be quick hits, nuggets, or baseless conjecture from an unverified source.  

Regardless I'll be reading it, so I'll be sharing it.

The Week Ahead

So, apparently my choice to keep Shay Given wasn't the greatest ever. Who saw Darren Fletcher scoring a brace coming ahead of time? If it had been Rooney scoring more than the one, I'd have been completely good with Given's performance but it wasn't to be. A very interesting weekend though. It would appear that ManYoo will have trouble defending their title. Assuming that injuries don't make a major impact on what comes next then Chelsea will be a cut above ManYoo, Arsenal, Liverpool, and Citeh. I can't say I have much of a feel for which of those four clubs will fall out of the Big Four. Here's something to think about before you answer - which teams are the most dependent on one or two players and therefore the most likely to be impacted by injury?

Maybe I'm just being biased and finding scenarios that are advantageous to Arsenal but I have a hard time seeing ManYoo doing anything of note if they lost Rooney for an extended stretch (which wouldn't be a shock given his injury history). Ditto Liverpool if they lost either Nando or Gerrard (and do any of us have a hard time envisioning Nando getting hurt again?). I'm perfectly willing to admit that neither Arsenal nor Citeh have a single player who is as consistently good as Rooney (this year), Gerrard, and Nando have been. What they do have in place of consistent stars are a bunch of well-above-average players. For instance, I could easily see Arsenal doing just fine (again) if Cesc, Arshavin, or RvP were to go down and obviously Citeh were very competitive with K2, Robinho, and Tevez either out or at something less than full strength.

Does this mean ManYoo or Liverpool should be the odds on favorites to miss the Champions League spots? Of course not. What it does mean is that they are likely more vulnerable than you think. They could get lucky and be relatively injury-free for the entire season (it happens). If they're not though, it could become clear very quickly which team won't make the grade.

OK, here is the in no way clunky transition from my opening ramble/rant to the analysis of the week ahead in fantasy footie... after the jump.

Early Early Doors

Happier times for Paterson and Burnley fans of all ages.

Too much news to wait until tomorrow, so here we go, extra early.

The most horrendous bout of cramp

Just a flesh wound.

If "the most horrendous bout of cramp." isn't your new team name, I'll be very disappointed in you.

from Sporting Life:

Didier Drogba has been given the all-clear to resume training on Thursday after being carried off against Tottenham on Sunday with a calf injury.

The Ivory Coast international is set to figure in the squad for the trip to Wigan on Saturday after a scan revealed there was no serious damage to his calf...

"Didier had a scan and there's no problem with his calf," confirmed Chelsea's assistant boss Ray Wilkins. "It was just the most horrendous bout of cramp.

Here's the original story from ChelseaFC.com. It's also interesting to note that Joe Cole and Yuri Zhirkov will start Chelsea's Carling Cup match against QPR.

So Chelsea's midfield just got even more crowded and even more difficult to predict.

Monday Morning Manager

Two of the week's stars, Brad Friedel and Fernando Torres

Monday Morning Manager, part the second after the jump.  Sunday's matches were reviewed here.

Givet update

Defender Gael Givet injured a knee at Goodison Park and definitely will not feature [in Rovers' Carling Cup third-round tie at Nottingham Forest on Tuesday night.]

Update from Goal.com:

Blackburn Rovers could be without defender Gael Givet for a lengthy period after the Frenchman sustained a knee injury in yesterday's defeat at Everton.

Manager Sam Allardyce is concerned at the extent of Givet's injury and is awaiting news.  "He fell on his knee, we aren't sure of the extent of the damage yet," he told the club's official website.

"But it is a little worrying that it isn't a kick so he may have twisted or tweaked a ligament."

Bassong given all-clear

Tottenham defender Sebastien Bassong has been given the all-clear by a head and neck specialist after suffering concussion during yesterday's 3-0 defeat at Chelsea.

Which is great news for Spurs as he's their only fit specialist at center back (with Corluka as the jack of all defensive trades). It's also gold for fantasy managers as Spurs have a nice run of games and Bassong is cheap again after the mauling Spurs got from Chelsea. I also found this interesting:

Redknapp has already confirmed that Portsmouth loanee Jamie O'Hara will return to Tottenham in January.

"We will definitely get Jamie back as soon as we can," Redknapp said.

"I like Jamie as a player and I didn't want him to go but Portsmouth insisted on it as part of the deal to sell Kevin-Prince Boateng to them so we had no choice."

Interesting behind the scenes look as Spurs had to loan O'Hara out for Pompey to take KPB. That's crazy talk! Though to be fair KPB has looked dangerous for Pompey. However, it is O'Hara who is the class of that side and they'll have to spend big petro-dollars(euros?) to replace him in January.

Monday Morning Manager

What a weekend of football! Derbies, nail-biters, blow-outs, sure-things, surprises and more. The Manager looks back to help you look ahead. Part the first after the jump. The rest soon.

The Barn Door Live - Sept. 19

As a point of reference for all of you, here is my team for the weekend...

GK: Shay Given
D: Verm, Wilko, Givet
M: Lamps, BFAY, Hunt, O'Hara
F: Drogs, Roonaldo, Tuncay

Injuries and Suspensions

Premier League Team News - Barclays Premier League - ESPN Soccernet

Burnley/Sunderland - Hard to imagine that the early match is going to be worthy of being on TV just about everywhere the Prem can be seen.  Not much news that will make fantasy managers scramble to switch up their sides either.

Arsenal/Wigan - RvP should be a go but Arshavin and Almunia are still out; Go with Mannone at your own risk but Cesc is always more valuable when Arshavin isn't present as he is the undisputed fulcrum of the attack.  All hands are on deck for Wigan.

Bolton/Stoke - Elmander is back; Gardner will probably play some; Lawrence and Eth should inject some attacking inspiration for Stoke while the man who is expected to cash in (that's Big Fat James Beattie) is a major doubt.  Fuller is even more interesting with Lawrence and Eth available to help get him the ball.

Villa/Pompey - They wrote an entire paragraph that said little other than Carew MAY get a start - not sure why they bothered.  Equally little to say about Pompey.

Hull/Brum - Fun news that JVoH may get his first start.  I'm not sure I'd do anything about this other than having a smile on my face on Saturday knowing that it is going to happen..  No word what it might mean for Jozy.  Brum is pretty much an entire team of injuries - Faddy, Queudrue, Jerome, Vignal, Bent, Taylor, Carsley, and Johnson.  Not exactly Manchester United's Treble Winning side but still going to be a lot to overcome.  Might be worth making some investments in Hull beyond Stephen Hunt.

WHU/Liverpool - Sounds like Diamanti might start but I'm not sure if you want to pick him up for the Liverpool match (might be worth watching for the future though); Masch should be back for Liv which is good for the value of Liverpool defenders and Reina but virtually worthless as news in its own right.  Aurelio is also fully fit but I'm not sure he'll actually play so that news may only be interesting to the Aurelio family.

ManYoo/Citeh - Rio seems unlikely meaning that Jonny Evans will slot into the "too expensive to consider based on the match-up" slot that Ferdinand previously held.  Berbs and Fletch are both likely but again, not sure I'd spend much time worrying about them until the competition gets easier.  For Citeh - looks like Robinho and Ireland will play while K2, RSC, and Carlito will all sit.  Amazing that Citeh will be lacking for strikers given all of their spending.

Wolves/Fulham - The interesting news here is that Kightly should be back.  I'm not sure if this match will be available on TV here but if I have a chance, I'm going to watch at least some of it so I have a better feel for whether he will be as productive in the Prem as he was in the Championship (is he another Ashley Young? or another Chris Eagles?).  Fullham appears to be fully healthy.  Not too much else of interest here unless you were thinking of starting Jody Craddock (and I'm not sure why you would be).

Everton/Rovers - Neill isn't ready yet, Bilyaletdinov is a doubt with a groin injury; PNev is out for a month so really not much of note to report from the Everton side; Rovers appear to be fully fit with Benni making it back from his ankle injury.

Chelsea/Spurs - A Joe Cole sighting against Porto (plus Deco's return to health) throws Chelsea's midfield into even more selection chaos (outside of Lamps) - you have to assume there's only a 50% chance than any given CHE midfielder outside of Lamps will start as Essien, Ballack, Deco, JCole, Malouda, and Mikel fight for 3 spots.  Drogs is back from Champions League suspension so expect him to start.  On the Spurs side of the pitch there isn't much to report other than a Gomes/Cudicini decision (you should have either vs. Chelsea at the Bridge) and Bale will be back (presumably to the bench if he even gets that far).

Good luck and remember not to make any rash Friday trades.

See you tomorrow morning for the Live Chat.

Cheers - Neal

Early Doors

Your early look at the news ahead of tomorrow's team press-conferences, after the jump.

The Week Ahead

You'll have to excuse me if my heart hasn't exactly calmed back down after Arsenal's first 5 minutes in Belgium today. The only thing that kept me even close to sane was switching back over to the "headline match-up" between Inter and Barca - if ever there was a match that could lower your heart rate then this was it. I believe my one sort-of word summary of it to Jeremy over instant message was "zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz" (although I probably had a few more z's in there). It is why, despite my respect for the accomplishments of both, I really can't stand either Serie A teams or Jose Mourinho. Both have been incredibly effective over time but that doesn't make me any more interested in spending 2 hour increments of my life watching them.

Speaking of Arsenal-related stories (as I so often do), here's my take on the Citeh loss last weekend. All of the summer talk in the press and among the supporters was about the need for more defenders and a better holding midfielder. While I'd never turn down additional help at either position, somehow the big gap between the pipes never really came up. Almunia wasn't entirely responsible for Arsenal's demise but he certainly didn't help and could be classified as a decidedly negative influence on the outcome as far as the visitors were concerned.

Now, you might think that this was about to set me off on a rant about Wenger or Arsenal's financial situation. Instead of that, I'm going to ask a more basic question about the value of goalkeepers. Why is it that players so able to influence the outcome of a match are so undervalued? I don't have specific statistics on goalkeeper transfer fees but if you consider that the value in strikers is that they can turn a match by putting the ball in the net then why wouldn't a keeper who can turn a match by keeping that same ball OUT of the net be equally valuable? The fact that Given, Schwarzer, Friedel, and Howard have all switched teams for a combined sum of less than what Spurs paid for David Bentley to sit on the bench for the last year and a half. If any of those gentlemen were at Arsenal you'd have to think that Arsenal would have at least 4 points for their travels to Manchester the last two weeks rather than having nothing to show for those two trips.

The final point in my pre-analysis digression is a reference to the famous baseball book "Moneyball". I won't talk about the baseball part of the book but the underlying lesson was that for someone trying to build a sports team on a limited budget, the best approach is to figure out what skill or set of skills other teams are under-valuing and then invest in those skills as opposed to investing scarce resources in the same traits that everyone else is paying (or even over-paying) for. My point? If you're Arsenal and you're financially challenged compared to your rivals or you're a bottom of the table team without any oil money attempting to bring you up to the top - why aren't you investing heavily in an excellent keeper at £5 million as opposed to trying to compete for a slightly better-than-average midfielder like Stuart Downing at £12 million? What would you rather have? Brad Friedel and £7 million in the bank or Downing? Granted, the same team ended up with both but what would you consider the better use of money?

OK, enough of my ranting, on to the analysis of the upcoming week in Fantasy Footie, after the jump.

Double blow for Birmingham City

In football, one day you are in and the next day... you are out.

via Birmingham Mail and hat tip to the Fantasy Football Scout:

BLUES have been dealt more injury blows as their fears over James McFadden and Franck Queudrue were confirmed.

The pair both suffered [muscle] tears in the derby defeat by Villa and are probably set to be out of action for around a month...

Because of Queudrue joining the casualties – among them are Stephen Carr, Cameron Jerome, Marcus Bent, Gregory Vignal and Martin Taylor – either Scott Dann or Giovanny Espinoza will figure on Humberside.

Queudrue has been the star of a very stingy Birmingham City team and they'll miss him tremendously. McFadden's injury perhaps changes their attacking formation if McLeish replaces him with Chucho Benitez. The Blues are at Hull City this weekend, so this could be a match they've penciled in as a must 3-points. I could see them going to a 4-4-2 with Chucho partnering O'Connor from the start.

Adebayor hit with two FA charges

We won't be seeing something like this again for a month

UPDATE: 

Emmanuel Adebayor will miss the Manchester derby after not appealing the violent conduct charge lodged against him by the Football Association.

Adebayor had until 6pm Wednesday to respond to the charge and in accepting it, has effectively condemned himself to a three-match ban.

via Yahoo!UK/Eurosport:

The Football Association have hit Emmanuel Adebayor with two charges following his stormy performance in Manchester City's win over Arsenal on Saturday.

Adebayor is facing a three-match ban for violent conduct for the incident involving Robin van Persie, while the City striker is likely to face an additional punishment for the celebration that followed his goal in the 4-2 win...

"Under the fast-track disciplinary process, Adebayor has been charged with violent conduct following an incident with Robin van Persie, which resulted in the Arsenal player receiving facial injuries.

"Referee Mark Clattenburg has advised the FA that he did not see this incident, but has confirmed that had he done so, he would have sent Adebayor off for violent conduct. The player has until 6pm on Wednesday evening to respond to the charge...

Unless the Togo international can successfully argue his case, he is almost certain not to be available for City at least until their trip to Wigan on October 18.

Emphasis mine.

Pending appeal, we'll be looking for a new striker in our fantasy teams forthwith.