The Week Ahead - Week 6 Edition

Roman, with other shiny things to look at other than the Carling Cup.  Photo courtesy Daily Mail.

Funny thing, sometimes I really have to think a little bit about what I want to write at the beginning of what usually turns into a really long column and sometimes the events of the week just sort of speak to me.  With the remarkable events of the last two days in the Carling Cup, this one just sort of wrote itself as I watched yesterday's events unfold via textcast (here in the States we're generally at work when mid-week matches are happening unless it's a really big one and we can find a way to take an "extended lunch meeting" at a strategic time).  Here are my observations about what the Carling Cup results this week showed us as part of overall trends (I trust you can find the specifics of what went on during the actual matches in a lot of other places) and somewhere in here you'll find a valuable lesson about having the proper respect for the concept of Momentum:

• Don't Talk Smack Above Your Weight - Harry Redknapp spent some time criticizing Wenger and Arsenal for playing their young players in the Carling Cup despite not having won anything in the last several years.  Then 'arry shows up with a less experienced line-up than Wenger and while he should have only lost 1-0 in regulation (Keane was pretty obviously offside on Spurs lone goal) he ended up being embarrassed as his young players wilted and made stupid plays where Arsenal's have matured into a group capable of being a credible second team rather than merely a youth team.  That's what happens after a few years of being blooded in the Carling Cup at a young age, you're ready.  If Harry was going to talk smack like that, he probably should have started a line-up that had a better chance of winning.
• What, Me Worry? - At Chelsea, there might be minor worries as a more experienced second team got taken down at home by a NUFC reserve squad but honestly, I don't think anyone at Chelsea really cares even a little bit about the Carling Cup at this point - it's Champions League/Premier League Double or bust at Stamford Bridge.  If they can win the FA Cup and/or Carling Cup along the way without hindering the primary goals, then that would be great too but if not, I'm sure Roman barely even looked up from whatever models he was, ahem, engaged with as NUFC was building their lead.
• In Stark Contrast - Manchester City is far behind Chelsea in the nouveau riche game and let's face it, right now it just isn't looking very good - think the Chelski Era before Mourinho with David Silva starring as Arjen Robben and a similar array of over-rated and way overpriced English players dominating the roster.  The goal SHOULD be to win something to show progress and start building momentum but in fielding a roster of guys no one but their families have ever heard of Citeh makes us wonder where all the money has gone.  Sure, Chelsea is coming town this weekend and it is admirable that they want to put their best foot forward but if I'm thinking about this strategically, they'd probably have been better served putting a strong Carling Cup line-up out there and a few kids out against Chelsea.  Chelsea is going to beat them regardless and at least they could play the injury card then.  As it stands, they've now lost a cup match against a much less talented opponent and they'll follow that up by losing against Chelsea at the weekend.  That seat getting a bit warm Mr. Mancini?
• Oh, Liverpool - Jeremy and I really enjoyed the introduction of Jonjo Shelvey (who looks like he has potential to be an excellent fantasy player down the line - attacking midfielder who takes kicks and is a strong passer) but when you pull off Ryan Babel who you paid I-don't-remember-how-much-but-it-was-a-lot for and you're hoping that's what saves the day, you a) haven't managed well; b) haven't acquired players well; or c) both.  As you'll recall, Arsenal started a weaker line-up against Spurs but they brought on Arsh and ChamWow when they wanted to push for the win.  Liverpool brought on an 18 year old who played in League One last season.  Like Citeh, Liverpool lacked respect for the concept of Momentum.  Chelsea have enough outside of the Carling Cup that they can thumb their nose at such a minor setback.  Citeh and Liverpool (and to a lesser extent Spurs) need all the success experiences they can get at this point after starting the season off in disastrous form compared to the expectations of them.  
• Yet More Contrast - West Brom have Big Mo' on their side right about now.  After getting their @ss-whipping at Stamford Bridge out of the way the first week it's been just about nothing but upside for the Baggies.  Odemwingie comes into the roster.  Win vs. Sunderland. Win vs. Leyton Orient in the Carling Cup.  Respectable 1-0 loss to Liverpool at Anfield. Draw vs. Spurs. Win over Birmingham.  Win over Citeh.  With the common wisdom being that they'd be relegated straight away this season, they're playing with house money at this point.  The lesson? When you have things going your way - just keep doing what you're doing.

In any event, you have to figure it's now down to Arsenal vs. ManYoo for the Carling Cup unless one or both are eventually tripped up by someone else with Momentum on their side that wasn't given the proper respect.



The Schedule, In One Part Since No One Traveled For European Competitions
In which we discuss the match-ups this weekend and highlight the ones that cause us to increase (or decrease) our valuation of players over and above the typical comparison of production and price:

• Arsenal vs. WBA - Not as attractive as I'd initially thought - talent + momentum + home trumps momentum by itself. Call it a moderate advantage to the Arsenal with Cesc and RvP out.
• Spurs @ WHU - Sure, WHU got their first point of the season last weekend but Spurs NEED this one after a mediocre start to the season and their loss to Arsenal in the Carling Cup.  If we can figure out who will play for Spurs then I'd value them more highly than usual.
• Birmingham vs. Wigan - Birmingham were really disappointing last weekend on the road vs. WBA but here is their (and Foster's) chance to redeem themselves.  I'd expect a significant advantage at home against poor opposition with little of their own momentum.
• NUFC vs. Stoke - Normally Liverpool vs. Sunderland would take this spot but you have to think Liverpool will be in full crisis mode while Sunderland will have some momentum from the Arsenal draw and NUFC will similarly have their share after knocking off Chelsea at the Bridge.  Advantage Newcastle, Liverpool not so much.

Forwards

• Drogba - With Kalou and Benayoun injured and Lamps questionable at best, it looks pretty certain that Drogs, Elk, and FloMal will all play.
• ChamWow - Not much from him last week but the value is still there even if the match-up was only an average one and home vs. WBA is still better than average even with their momentum.  What we have learned is that ChamWow isn't much of a phantom points guy unfortunately.  SOTs and goals are likely to be about it.
• Odemwingie - This probably isn't the week to jump on the bandwagon but he HAS been very consistent thus far so the one thing in favor of jumping on is that his price may continue to go up.
• Carroll - I have to admit I've jumped off the bandwagon for this week but not because I've lost faith but rather because I'm going with 5 midfielders.  If you need a forward under 8 then he's definitely still your guy.
• Spurs Forwards - With their mixed contributions I'm not sure I even have a sense of what Harry SHOULD do with his starting line-up this weekend let alone what he will do.  With Keane, PVC, and Crouch all under 10, knowing the answer would be helpful.
• Berbs - I have to admit I've been completely wrong about him the last couple of weeks, especially this last week.  I still see him in my head as the guy who coasted through last season with little to show for his efforts.  No debating that he's been a stud.  My only hesitation is that I assume Rooney won't be in a funk all season and I'm curious to see if a better Rooney (should he ever show up) helps or hurts Berbs' production - could go either way.
• Kalinic - He doesn't give you many points when he doesn't get on the scoresheet but at his price (4.33) you can live with it if he doesn't score and you're guaranteed a return if he does.  @Blackpool certainly isn't the cakewalk we all anticipated but it isn't @CHE or @ARS or anything either.
• DJ Campbell - The other guy to consider if you need someone cheap is DJ Campbell. Blackpool have been tough at home and the price is right.  A ringing endorsement? No, but an endorsement none-the-less.
• Eddie Johnson - Zamora? Crocked.  Dembele? Crocked.  AJ? Always crocked.  Are there any strikers left at Fulham? It seems that fate is pushing former USMNT rising star Eddie Johnson toward an improbable turn in the spotlight partnering Clint Dempsey.  Was it really six years ago that I saw him score a hat trick in under 20 minutes in a World Cup qualifier? Yes, yes it was.  Things haven't gone so well for EJ since then for either club or country but maybe the light has turned on finally.  Sort of an out-of-left-field pick but sometimes those work out.

Midfielders

• FloMal - Did I mention that you might not want to get off this bandwagon?  Despite being rotated in one match he's 20 points ahead of any other midfielder in the Yahoo! points standings.  This is less an endorsement of buying at retail this week (although still better value than Gerrard) and more a recommendation to stop thinking about selling him.
• Barton/Adam - The prices are still reasonable (both under 8) for the midfielders with the 6th and 7th best total number of points thus far this season.  While I have them at a discount to the current prices, I'd still be buying if I didn't - players with similar production and more of a track record are going for 150% of that price or more.
• van der Vaart - His price went up too but he's still in the 8 range as well so think about the value of Barton/Adam/VDV for about a total of 24 vs. the other potential uses of those funds.  Not going to do much better.  The match-up is pretty solid as well and he's taking at least some kicks.
• Ben Arfa - See van der Vaart above.
• Gardner - What's gotten into Mr. Gardner? How tragic is it that he's not listed as a defender like he was last season? Regardless, he's been a stud 3 weeks out of 5 and we're betting on 4 in 6 with Wigan coming to town.  Solid investment for the price.
• Dempsey - Starting forward listed as a midfielder, the price is a little high given the other options but still a strong option.
• Wilshere - His price is creeping up slowly but if you need someone under 7 he's a great bet with Cesc out.  He's due to have a breakout fantasy match and remember what happened when the great Blackpool momentum story visited the Emirates.

Defenders

• Bale - Even with VDV taking some of his kicks, he produced the goods and that was without the benefit of CS points.  Can't see any reason to, ahem, bail on him at this point.
• Koscielny - He's looked better and better each week.  He could have done better in the melee at the end of the Sunderland match but the glaring errors from the first couple matches of the season are gone and he's much more assertive on set pieces and going forward.
• Hutton - The big question here is whether he'll get a start.  He was a revelation after coming in against Wolves but Harry doesn't seem to be a fan as he's the only experienced and natural RB on the roster and he hadn't played a minute until Kaboul hurt himself leaving Spurs without two reserve CBs who have deputized at RB (Kaboul and Corluka).
• Salcido - I'm calling him the poor man's Bale and as I said in First Impressions, I'd have started him last weekend had I known his visa issues had been sorted out.  They are now and you should expect good things.
• Squillaci - With Verm still out, he's another solid option for a low price that has some upside.  Not great last weekend but Kos wasn't great his first weekend in the Prem either.
• O'Shea - Just a solid pick most weeks.  Not huge upside but rarely too much downside and do-able within most budgets.

Goalkeepers

• Foster - Despite my disappointment from last weekend, I'm sticking with him and as a bonus, his price is lower.  Solid match-up at home.  Try not to over-think it this time dummy (yes, I'm typing a conversation with myself for your benefit).
• Gilks - Do you have the b@lls for this one? He's gone over 20 points twice this season (both amazingly on the road as B'pool have only played once at home this season to-date).  This is quite the mental leap but we know Rovers don't score much under any circumstances and Gilks has the most saves of anyone in the league so all the signs are there for a potentially big weekend.  He's also not that expensive.
• Almunia - Hard to do this without feeling a bit bad about it right away but all of the signs are there, Top 4 team with momentum, reasonable price, home match, newly promoted opponent who has yet to score on their travels.  Seems like a slam dunk until you consider all of Almunia's shortcomings.  Still, if you have the money to spend, I like him better than Cech (too much attacking talent at Citeh to feel great about a CS), EvdS (too much to spend for a road match), Reina (LIV less reliable than ARS), and Hart (Chelsea coming to town).