The Week Ahead - Week 4 Edition

I was preparing myself to fill the space generally reserved for ranting about whatever is on my mind with news about the various injuries sustained by key players - Defoe, Dawson, Walcott, et al - over the international break but since Jeremy already covered that here and here there isn't much sense in being repetitive.  Just click and see his fine work.

Honestly, with 4 fantasy (gridiron) football teams getting ready to kickoff the new NFL season this evening and two weeks where there was very little news other than injuries, I have to say that I'm a little bit at a loss as to what to write about leading up to my weekly analysis.  I will go on record with a few NFL predictions that probably none of you outside of the US care about but I'd like to get them on record somewhere so I can take credit for them later in the year.  Plus, we're all about fantasy sports here so there is at least some relevance.

• Kevin Kolb may or may not get the Eagles to the playoffs but he's going to be an excellent fantasy quarterback.  Under Andy Reid (the exceedingly plump coach, not the slightly overweight Sunderland midfielder) the Eagles have always thrown for a lot of yards no matter who the QB has been.
• The New England Patriots aren't going to be very good this year.  Randy Moss bitching about his contract, best O-lineman holding out, best D-lineman out for the year, best CB out for the year, no quality running backs.  I am all for giving Brady/Belicheck their due but at some point there has to be some talent and I just don't see it.  No playoffs in New England.
• Arian Foster will be a top 10 fantasy running back.  Great offense and he fits their style to a T.
• Malcolm Floyd will be the Arian Foster of wide receivers.
• San Francisco will look great until the playoffs when they have to start playing much better teams.  SF players will be great for fantasy but will not deliver in the end when it matters - but maybe next year.
• Dallas will be a playoff team but not the best team in the NFC.
• Kansas City and Oakland will battle down to the wire for a playoff spot and both will be much better than expected on offense - I think Oakland will win out because they were already pretty solid on D.
• Green Bay and Baltimore (who should get healthier on defense as the year goes on) will play in the Super Bowl.
• Green Bay will win it all.

OK, I feel better having that out of the way.  For those of you who don't care, I apologize, back to the Premier League and EPL fantasy now.

The Schedule
With no Euro leagues on tap, the only real advantages go to those teams who don't feature many internationals on their roster.  They had the advantage of resting and practicing for two weeks while their more decorated counterparts were spanning the globe on behalf of the nations they represent.  However with the matches on Tuesday and none TOO far afield (France playing away to Bosnia and Russia playing at home were the only really bad trips any players had to endure) its hard to say that any Premier League team will be severely impacted beyond the injuries which we'll get to later.

As for this weekend's match-ups, here are the clear advantages where you should give players from a particular team more consideration than you would in a normal week:

• Chelsea @ West Ham - Chelsea have been great and West Ham not so much.  Not really much else needs to be said.
• Spurs @ West Brom - I usually don't like picking road teams to have a clear advantage but Spurs SHOULD be in great shape for this one.  Now if we can only figure out how VDV will impact their line-up.
• Arsenal v. Bolton - Finally, a home team.  I like what Bolton is trying to do this season and under Coyle in general but his attempts to become Arsenal-light will play into the hands of the Gunners who will show them how its done.  
• I know I SHOULD put both Man Citeh v. Rovers and NUFC vs. Blackpool in this category but the Citeh match-up has nil-nil written all over it unless Mancini has had some tactical revelations over the break while Blackpool haven't been nearly as bad as we all expected.  I wouldn't argue with anyone who wanted to consider these great match-ups for Citeh and Newcastle, but I'm not going to load up on either team any differently than I would if they were playing a mid-table team on a neutral field.

The Players


Forwards

• Didier Drogba - Just leave him there and thank me;
• Nicolas Anelka - If you don't have the money for Drogs (or you have extra money for both);
• Spurs Strikers - I haven't seen anything definitive on Crouch yet but if he continues to be out then Keane and Pavlyuchenko  are great options at less than 9.00 each - more on this topic tomorrow when the injury reports come out;
• ChamWow - Well, we know he's going to start given the injuries around him and that he'll be more of a focal point of the attack out of necessity. Pretty obvious buy at under 7.00;
• Andy Carroll - A definite keeper if you still have him at under 6.00.  At his current price of 8.87 he's still a strong bet playing at home against Blackpool;
• Dembele - This is going to be the decision that takes up a lot of mental energy over the next 36 hours or so - ChamWow (better team, better match-up, higher profile, but mediocre reality so far) vs. Dembele (worse team, worse match-up, not terribly fancied, but has looked great so far).  At equal prices it's hard to pick Dembele over ChamWow but if you're down on ChamWow after some uninspired performances thus far here's a great alternative;
• Carlos Tevez -  The one attacking player for Man Citeh who has been worth much this season.  I think he's a little over-priced for my tastes but he's a pretty solid bet to get points so worth considering.
• Wayne Rooney - This is a really tough call but I figure I'd better give him some space after two goals for England - I still don't believe he's back to full strength.  So I'd go Anelka over Rooney or spend the money elsewhere (FloMal, Cesc, etc.).  If you have a strong feeling that "he's back" then I won't argue with you but I don't get that feeling so I can't recommend him.

Midfielders

• Florent Malouda - He should be the first name on your team sheet in midfield at this point.  
• Cesc Fabregas - He should be back to full strength at this point and the match-up is a good one at home.  17+ might be a bit expensive but you should get pretty solid returns from that investment.
• Andrei Arshavin - He still hasn't looked like an exceptional talent thus far this season but he's been an effective fantasy player and one who is likely to see increased action with RvP and Theo out.  I like him a lot at 12.00 but at 14.45 you will really have to think about this one;
• Joey Barton and Charlie Adam - I'm including them together because they're both quietly racking up the phantom points at a very reasonable price.  They'll be squaring off this weekend and here's hoping it continues because I'm in on both;
• Kevin Nolan - If you're looking for an inexpensive Theo replacement he's playing at home against a team that, while they've been better than expected, will still likely end up in the bottom half of the table;
• Stewart Downing - Don't love the @Stoke match-up but he's been solid value thus far;
• Marc Albrighton - STILL don't love the match-up but with Ireland listed as out with an injured hamstring, you have to expect that Albrighton will continue to start at a cheap price.  The results haven't been as strong since week 1 but still worth considering;

 Defenders

• Gareth Bale - Anyone still refusing to pick him should write a comment below giving us their reasoning.  I can't come up with any reasons not to even at such a high price;
• Paulo Ferreira - PhysioRoom has Ivanovic listed as "out" until mid-October with a back injury.  If that's the case then Ferreira should be a strong choice to pick up CS points (and maybe some phantom points from time to time) at under 7.  Even more so this week with a good match-up even if it is on the road;
• John O'Shea - Has been starting regularly and returning solid value, even better, his price still hasn't gone up TOO high;
• Laurent Koscielny - He hasn't shown the goods yet and you have to think his position will at least be challenged by Squilaci but if you're looking for a cheap starting defender on a top four team with a great home match-up, here's your guy;
• Martin Skrtel - Cheap, playing for a pretty good team but on the road so a little less attractive this week compared to two weeks ago and even that didn't work out terribly well;
• Michael Williamson - He's been returning solid value and has at least a decent home match-up - I'm not entirely sold in a week where there are stronger options available;
• Spurs CBs - With a great match-up, we'll have to watch the news for who will replace Dawson - Gallas isn't in the system at this point so there's no help there but if SeaBass is set to fill in, then he'd be nice value;

Goalkeepers

• Joe Hart - Add him to the list of guys on my roster who I'm not touching until there's a really solid reason (injury, suspension, dramatic loss of form) to do so.  That he's still significantly cheaper than Cech makes this a really easy decision.
• Petr Cech - If you have the money.
• Manuel Almunia - If you need the 1.00 you'll save over Hart then this isn't a bad week to have him;
• Steve Harper - He isn't really CHEAP per se at about 4.5 but if you find yourself in need of an inexpensive option then he's probably your guy.  Alternatively if you want to pick up Kirkland in hopes that he won't play then you can pick up even more money but do risk the chance that he will play and Wigan will revert to their previous form;