First Impressions and Second Thoughts - Week 4

Dembele, Dembele, Dembele!

Sometimes you just get a feeling and have to go with it.  As readers of The Week Ahead will recall, I was agonizing over the choice between ChamWow and Dembele and ended up keeping Dembele as much to be different from everyone else as because I was convinced that he'd be better.  The good news is that there were no losers in that decision since ChamWow had his second strong week in 4 tries.  The better news is that Dembele was better still and justified my choice.  Who knows if Dembele can keep this form or not but with Zamora out, I know I'll be sticking with him for a while longer to see how it goes. 

The big question I'll be contemplating this week is whether to move from Carroll (at 5 and change) to ChamWow for the balance of Arsenal's easy early schedule.  I like having Carroll at such a cheap price but Drogs/ChamWow/Dembele looks like it could be a pretty strong combination.

On to what we learned this weekend:

Teams

• The Title Race - The typical press overreaction to this weekend would be to declare the title race down to two real contenders - Chelsea (the clear favorites) and Arsenal (the potential fly in the ointment).  I have to say its an easy direction to go.  Here's a quick look at why this may NOT be hyperbole at this point.
• United - ManYoo NEVER lose 2 goal leads in stoppage time - a point @EVE isn't a terrible outcome but the way it happened made it much worse.  
• The Upside: Rooney didn't play in this one and Berbs is playing better.
• The Downside: They haven't really played anyone yet and they've already dropped 4 points PLUS the spine of their team features Rio (fragile and aging), Evans (not that good), Smalling (untested), and a potpourri of holding midfielders who can't really hold.  This doesn't bode well for when they start playing better teams.
• The Verdict: They aren't out of it yet but a lot of things have to go well for them to contend and so far, they aren't.
  
• Liverpool - They just aren't that good.
• The Upside: They have as many key injuries (Kuyt) and suspensions (JCole) that are impacting their attack and we haven't seen much from Torres yet.
• The Downside: Teams that challenge for a title have to overcome injuries and suspensions and we haven't seen much from Torres in quite some time.
• The Verdict: Um, when is that takeover happening anyway? Until then, they're playing for a spot in the Europa League;
• Man Citeh - Not since Enron (or Roman's first couple years at Chelsea) has so much expenditure created so little value.
• The Upside: Lots of new faces and injuries means that there still may be a rhythm to be found and a streak to be put together.
• The Downside: Mancini doesn't seem to be very interested in deploying all of his expensive attacking toys in an attacking alignment AND they might be going with Jo as the starting striker this weekend.
• The Verdict: Too early to tell but it certainly doesn't seem like the right mix of talent, system, and manager at this point.
• Spurs - I get this one least of all but they're dropping points that they are going to regret.
• The Upside: The fact that ManYoo, Liverpool, and Citeh are also struggling out of the gate is keeping them from an early hole in the race for Champions League spots for next year.
• The Downside: Now they have to figure out how to balance difficult Champions League matches with their Premier League schedule rather than (theoretically) push-overs from the qualification stage.
• The Verdict: A close examination of the squad leaves you with the sense that they really only have one difference-maker on a squad deep in above-average players.  We criticize Liverpool for only having two difference-makers.  I see a tooth and nail fight to stay in 3rd/4th but no serious title challenge.
• The Wolves Story Line - Wolves lost their first match of the season at the death but @FUL is a difficult place to pick up points so it doesn't dim my enthusiasm for this storyline at all.  This is also another chance for me to mention my man Dembele who took that precious road point from Wolves at the death.  Good for my fantasy team, not so much for my Wolves story line.
• Blackpool - So, are they this season's Hull (from a couple years back)? Or is there just more talent there than we thought?  I can honestly say that Blackpool seems more solid in their accomplishments than Hull did.  It seems built on hard work and organization rather than some mercurial players (Giovanni, et al) prone to streaks of brilliance but equal parts ineffectiveness.  I don't think they'll end the season in the top half of the table but they certainly look poised for a legitimate 12th to 14th place finish.
• West Ham - They've just been a disaster and have easily eclipsed Blackpool as the team that you want to have your fantasy players matched up against.  That Luis Boa Morte and Keiron Dyer are still getting chances hints at the depths of the issues in this squad.  Not a good sign when guys who were talented but too injury prone 5 years ago are your best hopes against the defending league champions now.
• Everton - What to make of them? The schedule hasn't been easy by any stretch of the imagination but they're missing out on a chance to gain ground on teams like Spurs/Citeh/Liverpool/United who are lagging in the race for European places.  With Arteta healthy from the start the excuses they had early last season just aren't there.

The Players

• Moussa Dembele - This will be the last time, I promise.  I'm sure I've jinxed him for this coming week but honestly, I don't care, I'm just enjoying it.
• Victor Obinna - He looked pretty solid for a lousy West Ham team.  Yahoo! doesn't have him in the system yet but he's worth following to see how things progress.
• Rafael van der Vaart - Not a bumper weekend from a fantasy standpoint (6 points) but Harry seems inclined to play him off of a single striker which bodes well for his fantasy production.
• Stuart Holden - He's been extremely solid for Bolton playing behind the strikers.  Think of him as Charlie Adam Light (all the solid statistics without taking PKs).
• Wayne Routledge - Who knows what will become of his playing time with Ben Arfa around but 4 weeks of solid production (7, 6, 8, 7) with no big contributions (no goals, no assists).  If he continues to start there's is the promise of returning his value plus the occasional "big" weekend with a goal or an assist.
• Ben Foster - I wasn't convinced that he'd be up to filling in for Joe Hart but with a few good match-ups the next couple weeks and some solid performances so far he is out-performing my expectations.
• Matthew Gilks - He's been great so far - he has Chelsea this weekend so it probably won't continue but outside of playing the "big however-many" he has put himself into the conversation for fantasy consideration.
• Michael Essien - A random anomoly? Or a look into the future of Chelsea's midfield once Lamps has been put out to pasture?  He has always been a better attacking player for country than for club and last weekend gave us a little evidence that he could be better for Chelsea than he's show so far.  Time will tell.
• Ramires - He looks like he has some talent but in my estimation, he has a ways to go before he's a strong fantasy contributor.  He might be an OK play if you know he's starting and are looking for a low-priced enabler but he looks like he needs a season to grow into things before we get a sense of his real potential.
• NFL Fantasy - Did I mention that Arian Foster was going to be a stud? Here's hoping that I wasn't horribly wrong about Kevin Kolb...

Those are my thoughts from this weekend.  Please contribute your own in the comments section.