The Week Ahead - Week 5 Edition

Just a bit too easy.

Talk about a night and day difference in the experiences of the English teams in their Champions League exploits between Tuesday and Wednesday.  On Tuesday the going was tough for different reasons. ManYoo was arrogant/overconfident in selecting what looked to be a Carling Cup roster and they paid for it with an ugly nil-nil draw.  Spurs, on the other hand, were on the road facing solid competition and at the end of the day a road point in the Champions League isn't so bad.  In isolation, neither of these outcomes should be considered tragic.  The disturbing fact for both teams is that if you choose to look at these outcomes in light of other outcomes early on in the season, you might start to get worried.

I see the Spurs draw as similar to ManYoo@EVE over the weekend.  It wasn't the draw but rather it was the WAY that they got to the single point that felt deflating.  Spurs looked strong in going up two goals and must have had their own supporters and Premier League boosters in general thrilled in the early going.  That said, to give back the advantage and only come away with a point when more were well within their grasp smacked of yet another disappointment in an early season characterized by them.  Loss to a vastly inferior Young Boys on the road. Draw @WBA. Loss at home to Wigan. A draw after dominating the play @Citeh in the opener. Finally, a come-from-ahead draw in Germany.  That isn't exactly the sort of trend that says "we've arrived as a serious contender for honors" to me.

The song is similar at ManYoo and made all the worse by the fact that United are held to a much higher standard than Spurs based on history, glamour, and past results.  Regardless of the glory that is United's history, the early trend is troubling.  Late equalizer conceded at Fulham for a draw.  TWO late equalizers conceded at Everton for a draw.  A scoreless draw against what should have been a hopelessly out-manned Rangers side.  Rooney struggling.  Valencia out for a significant period of time.  Rio, Scholes, Giggs, and Neville still being counted on heavily despite age and fragility which hasn't really been an issue outside of Ferdinand yet.  Is United's season over? Not by a long shot.  Is it possible that Rooney finds his form this weekend and ManYoo rattle off 5 or 6 consecutive wins as Chelsea drop a few points against Citeh and/or Arsenal?  Definitely.  That said, the early indicators aren't positive and Tuesday was just another example of that, not a lone anomaly.


The Schedule
Part 1, European/Midweek Hangovers
Where we quickly run down the European exploits of the teams in the Premier League to try to figure out how it might impact their fantasy prospects this coming weekend:

• Spurs - The trip to Germany was on Tuesday so they should have time to rest up before the weekend plus they have a plenty big enough squad with Palacios, Gallas, Bassong, and Pavyluchenko having seen little or no action.  van der Vaart picked up a knock which may or may not impact his ability to play at the weekend. Verdict: Minor Impact
• ManYoo - They didn't travel and they didn't play many of their starters.  Basically, they chose to take the hit in Champions League rather than in the league.  That risk obviously didn't pan out.  Furthermore, Valencia was lost for an extended period.  Verdict: Dumb, but No Impact This Weekend
• Chelsea - They were on the road on Wednesday but they don't play until Sunday and they were able to do at least some rotation with Alex and Zhirkov coming in for ACole and Ferreira from last weekend's match.  Drogba was also able to rest while on Champions League suspension.  Verdict: Minimal Impact.
• Arsenal - They were at home and it looked like they barely broke a sweat to be honest.  There might be some tired legs from all of the shooting and scoring but Arshavin, Song, and Chamakh were able to leave early due to the route.  The lack of depth in central defense likely means that the only potential issues might come from Squillaci and Koscielny who will be forced to play all 90 minutes in both matches.  Verdict: Minimal Impact.
• Liverpool - [WILL BE UPDATED ONCE THEY PLAY]
• Citeh - [WILL BE UPDATED ONCE THEY PLAY]

Part 2, The Match-ups
Where we quickly run down the match-ups that we think will increase (or decrease) the value of players from entire teams over and above their normal valuation:

• Stoke vs. West Ham - Coming off of their late win against Villa on Monday Stoke's two best fantasy players - Eth and KJones - are a bit expensive but their form should continue against a rotten West Ham team who has rapidly replace Blackpool as the team you should be matching up against.  Look for newly acquired Marc Wilson to represent potential value here as a midfielder listed as a defender against a mis-firing opponent on the road.
• Chelsea vs. Blackpool - I love the Blackpool story thus far but Chelsea have been ruthless in dispatching inferior opponents, especially at home but really anywhere.  No reason to think that this will change.
• West Brom vs. Birmingham - I don't LOVE the Birmingham attack here but I do like them for a clean sheet with more chance of a road win than WBA scoring against what has been a stout defense so far. Far greater chance of 2-0 to Birmingham than 1-0 to WBA in my estimation.
• Spurs vs. Wolves/Wigan vs. Citeh - These are the two matches that SHOULD be no-brainers with the clear advantage to Spurs and Citeh based on talent but I'm going to caution fantasy managers not to dive in to either too deep.  Wolves have been tough - both physically and on the score sheet - while Citeh have conspired through their formation choices to play down to lesser opponents.  I'm not saying to ignore players from either side, I just wouldn't take risks (Pavlyuchenko) or overpay (Milner) based on what SHOULD be favorable match-ups.

OK, on to the player recommendations:
Forwards 

• Didier Drogba - He KILLS inferior competition and he's coming off a rest where he had to watch his teammates rack up 4 goals in Europe.  You know he's dying to get in on the action.
• ChamWow - Still relatively inexpensive at less than 9.00 and @SUN doesn't exactly scream "likely clean sheet for the home team" - wasn't it just a week ago that we were all wondering if he was worth the effort? Well, now he's scored in all but one of his Arsenal starts and that was both @LIV and his Premier League debut so not exactly a bad record.
• Dembele - The price is now higher but I'm riding the hot streak until it is either proven to be nothing more than a hot streak.
• Andy Carroll - I don't know if NUFC will win but Everton have been giving up goals so not unreasonable to think they'll do it again and Carroll is a pretty solid value play still.
• Kalinic - His goals thus far have been gifts but he's still cheap if you're looking for cheap, playing at home, and a win-able match-up.
• Gabby Agbonlahor - His price has dropped a bit to just over 11 and home to Bolton isn't exactly a frightening match-up.
• Salmon Kalou - I'm going out on a bit of a limb with this one but in the spirit of rotation, I wouldn't be shocked to see him get a start in place of Anelka against Blackpool.  I also wouldn't be shocked to see him come off the bench and get a late brace like Vela did for Arsenal yesterday.  This is hardly guaranteed points but if you want to take a shot at CHE vs. BPL and pay less than 9.00 for it, this is a pretty solid bet.
• Berbatov - I'm still not sold on him either but the numbers don't lie, he's averaging just under his cost.  Not sure I'd go in on him for the Liverpool match-up even if Liverpool aren't exactly up to the par that Liverpool supporters expect.
• Obligatory Rooney Note - I'm still not convinced that it's time to make that sort of investment in the England striker.  Certainly not at over 20.

Midfielders

• Forent Malouda - Quite a disappointment last weekend but hard to see him being rested two weekends in a row.
• Charlie Adam/Joey Barton - The prices are going up but they've been a great wheelhouse producing points consistently for a reasonable cost.  I'll stop recommending them at their current level of production once their prices go over 10 but as they are both significantly under that total, I'm going to keep recommending them.  The bonus is that they've been doing it against all manner of opposition whether their teams win, lose, or draw. 
• Cesc Fabregas - Fab4 has been on fire since he returned to the Arsenal line-up from his World Cup exertions and I don't expect that @SUN will slow him down.
• Matt Etherington - Great match-up and coming off a man-of-the-match performance against quality opposition.  If you have the money, this should be a pretty easy one to pick.
• Jack Wilshere - Hard to say what's going to happen here with Denilson working his way back and Nasri already back but I'd expect that Wenger will give him another shot while he is short of strikers.  Wilshere was SOCLOSE to scoring in midweek and if you want to spend a little bit on the chance that he'll break through at Sunderland, I don't think that would be a bad risk.
• Stuart Holden - We here at the blog like what Holden has done so far accumulating points "the old fashioned way" without the benefit of a "big" attacking game.  He's averaging 8.5 per match and he has yet to get a goal, an assist, or average more than an SOT per match.  Quite reasonable to take a gamble that he'll continue to get his 8.5 PLUS the chance of a goal or assist at Villa.  For less than 7.5 that's not a bad deal.
• Nani - A tough match-up but with Valencia down he SHOULD be a consistent starter as ManYoo's only attacking wing player.  We'll see if that happens but he should be a much easier pick for fantasy managers if he's going to play more regularly.
• Rafael van der Vaart - We're waiting on the injury news but if he's available and starting, then we saw enough last weekend to be interested.  Consider this a conditional recommendation pending team news tomorrow.

Defenders

• Gareth Bale - Bad week for Spurs and he ONLY got 9 points.  Any wonder why we love him so much?  Here's hoping that BAE comes back and Bale stays in the advanced role like he did on Tuesday.
• Koscielny/Squillaci - I'd definitely only go with one of the two maximum as Arsenal are known to concede soft goals to inferior opponents on the road - you don't want all of your eggs in that basket.  All things being equal, you'd prefer to have Koscielny but unless you have him cheap then Squillaci is probably the better value this weekend.
• Marc Wilson - See above in Part 2 of Schedule.  Solid player.  Great match-up.  Listed as a defender but playing in midfield.  Only costs 4.77 as of this writing.
• Phil Jones - See Wilson, Marc above.  Listed a defender but playing midfield.  The cost is slightly more (6.18) and the match-up is slightly less enticing (vs. FUL) but the value is still there and the track record thus far this season is marginally better.
• Zhirkov/Ferreira - Chelsea's outside defenders will make for interesting Friday reading.  We assume that ACole was just rested for a relatively easy Champions League match so unfortunately the prospects of Zhirkov starting are probably minimal.  On the right side, our best guess is that Ferreira will step back in allowing either Alex, Terry, or Ivanovic to be rested from the central trio.  If you have any fears that Ferreira won't start (which would be justified) then I'd recommend Jones or Wilson instead.

 Goalkeepers

• Petr Cech - Hard not to go in on Cech when he's been returning his price fairly consistently this season - especially given the match-up.  If you have the money, there really isn't a better choice.
• Ben Foster - The ex-ManYoo keeper has been confounding my pre-season predictions that he'd be a major step down from Joe Hart by showing great early season form in front of the Brum defense.  With a solid match-up and a still-reasonable price under 8, Foster is the pick of the "mid-priced" keepers.
• Cheap Option? - Unfortunately, there really isn't a keeper less expensive than Foster than I can recommend in good conscience if you actually want points from this spot.  If you're OK with an enabler who you HOPE TO GOD doesn't play then go with Kirkland and try to make the points up elsewhere in your line-up.  Then look for Gilks to be really cheap next weekend after Chelsea put up 5 or 6 on Blackpool at the Bridge on Sunday.