First Impressions and Second Thoughts - Week 6

What a weekend it was.  First Chelsea dropped their first points of the season and then the other top half teams spurned the opportunity to make up significant ground one after the other from Arsenal's embarrassment at home against WBA to Spurs loss at Upton Park followed by Liverpool's draw with Sunderland and finally ManYoo's draw at Bolton.  At the end of the weekend, what we had was a much more interesting table in which Citeh made significant progress while all of the others showed more weakness.  The interesting thing for me coming out of the weekend is that no one really blew me away.  Here are some quick thoughts to close out the week that was in the Premier League.


Teams
  • The Title - So, is this a trend with Chelsea? Or just a one-off road loss to a solid team that honestly got lucky that Tevez's shot went through ACole's legs rather than deflecting off of him and dribbling off into harmlessness.  I'm sure Tevez's move was intentional but with a strong defender in Cole between him and the net you can't think that would be the outcome more times than not.  Outside of that goal, Chelsea was at least the equal of Citeh on a day when Drogs looked to be less than his best.  This coming weekend at home against Arsenal will be a very interesting test to determine what we really saw vs. Citeh.  
  • The Chasers - Arsenal's draw @SUN was a downer for them but the home loss to WBA was inexcusable for a team chasing the title.  You have to seriously downgrade them to being in a second tier of very good but seriously good but flawed teams and here are the quick rundowns of each in that tier:
    • Arsenal - Too much talent in the trainers room and bad goalkeeping #songremainsthesame
    • ManYoo - Too thin down the middle and too reliant on their geezers #endofthegoldengeneration
    • Spurs - Too many injuries and not enough difference-makers #goodbutnotgreat
    • Citeh - Too cautious and will drop points to inferior teams who luck into a goal #tooitalian
    • Liverpool - Two excellent players and one better than average one (Reina) does not a contender make #justnotgood
    • Villa - Just seem to be missing an element of spark they had last season #ismilnerthatgood?
  • The Wolves Story - Sadly, this storyline seems to be fading as Wolves dropped a home point that they should have had against a more talented team in Villa.  The sad fact is that the goal they conceded to lose was the type of physical goal that they shouldn't give up.  Heskey just wanted it more.  With @CHE and MAC coming up at the end of the month this coming weekend's visit of West Ham will be critical for Wolves.
  • What to Make of the Magpies - They have talent and have generally outperformed pre-season prognostications but the home loss to Stoke this past weekend as a bad sign.  They were up and grinding toward a win but couldn't close it out and even get a single point against solid, mid-table opposition.  As always, NUFC is as confusing a team as there is in the Prem. With ManYoo Man City this coming weekend plus a (very) soft rest of October, we should at least learn if they can beat the teams that a top half team should beat.
  • The New Flavor of the Week - First it was Blackpool and then it was Newcastle but the latest newly promoted side bidding to be "this year's Reading" is West Brom.  Currently 6th and boasting a road win at a top team.  Newly promoted teams generally struggle to find goalscorers and in Odemwingie WBA have found hope.  The big question is whether this is just a run of good form or a real find for the long term.
  • The Downside - We try to stay positive but outside of all of the "top" clubs losing what can we make of Everton.  They actually nicked a point from their lone "really difficult" match (ManYoo) but they lie at the foot of the table and have two points from 3 home matches and 1 point from 3 away matches.  Sure they need a goal scorer but the roster is basically the same as it was last season but, like Villa, they seem to be missing that bit of magic that brings all of the disparate but talented parts together.
Players
  • Odemwingie! - We cautiously got on the bandwagon last week in this space but weren't excited about his match-up over the weekend but he certainly proved us wrong.  There didn't appear to be anything flukey about his performance.  We're excited for the Odemwingie era at WBA.
  • Almunia - It isn't all down to him as Arsenal's defense had some pretty pathetic moments but he just isn't very good. You get the feeling that everyone in Arsenal's defense would be about 20% better if they were more confident in the keeper.  
  • Adam/Barton - Not a great week for our two favorite midfield points generators but Adam scored reasonably well despite an OG and we're happy Barton's bad matches don't include red cards anymore (knocking furiously on wood).
  • Drogba - A lot of people dropped him for this past weekend and the near term results of that move look solid - the question is can you afford to buy him back? or alternatively, can you match the production of Drogba with two better-than-average players you can now afford?  He has terrorized Arsenal throughout his career and he'll be well rested after serving the 2nd match of his Champions League ban from last season.
  • Salcido - Not a bad performance considering there was a late yellow card involved - I'm encouraged.
  • Coleman - Jeremy's favorite Everton defender had a nice match and may continue to start in midfield - continue to watch to see what happens here.  Would be more exciting if Everton weren't playing like crap.
  • Hart - He continues to make me pay for doubting him when I had him for cheap.  Promise number 2 to myself to just install him at keeper and leave it alone.
  • van der Vaart/Bale - The first evidence that VDV may start vulturing Bale's points.  Spurs were pretty rotten all the way around so unless you think they're actually this bad, you might not want to over-react just yet but certainly a piece of evidence that merits watching to see if it becomes a trend - so far, one week where both scored solidly and one week where Bale ceased to be worth the money.
  • KJones/Chamakh/Carroll - Jeremy and I had a discussion over AIM about these three yesterday and here's what I've concluded.  Despite the fact that sports analysts apparently have some sort of code that prevents cross-racial comparisons of players (all "the Next Vieiras" are black, etc.) these three seem to be cut from very similar cloth.  All are strong target players with speed, strength, some leaping ability, and decent-enough ball skills.  That said, none of them are very good fantasy players on the days they don't score goals.  Their value will likely settle between 8 and 11 depending on how recently they've scored but none should be a "plug into the line-up and forget about him" sort of player.  You want your players to produce week-in and week-out and thus far, in my estimation none of these guys is going to get it done for you.  

17 comments:

  1. Chris O.3:53 PM

    NUFC play Citeh this weekend, not ManYoo.

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  2. I have really changed up my team, and I hope it pays off. Out goes Drogba with Bale, whom I dropped last week. Your comments about DD's lack of CL play and his record vs. Arsenal make me think twice, but...

    Kirkland
    Carr Salcido Skrtel
    Malouda Holden D. Jones Gerrard Kuyt
    Tevez Kalinic

    So, I'm hoping Liverpool breaks out against Blackpool (notice I'm still not confident of Torres), and I'm counting on 15+ from Tevez against NUFC.

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  3. I'm not making any changes to my team before the CL or EL matches due to injuries. Team I have atm is the one I had since Sunday...

    Foster
    Bale/Salcido/Carr
    N'Zogbia/Adam/VDV/B.Emerton
    Torres/Tevez/Obinna

    Foster, Bale, and B.Emerton may go as I'm considering Nani, but will make adjustments on Friday.

    Neal - Why no mention of Obinna, he looked like a solid fantasy producer even without a goal...9 SC's and 3 CW vs. Tottenham, and I think he's on set pieces. Definitely one to consider home to Fulham.

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  4. Obinna is on our radar and you're sure to hear more about him from us as the week goes on.

    In fact, I think we've already broached the subject on Facebook.

    ReplyDelete
  5. - I too, am waiting till AFTER Champions League games to make changes, if any at all.
    - ALOT of chatter about dropping FloMo/Bale/Drogs or ALL Three. My thought: Crazy. I'm MORE inclined to keep them because once people DROP them, very unlikely they will be able to afford to pick them BACK up. They are fairly reliable fantasy points machine. So even against a tough opponent, I'd keep them. I just don't trust Odemwingie or Obinna over Drogba, on a consistent basis.
    - I jumped on the Coleman bromance too. Canned Kos for him.

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  6. Anonymous1:00 AM

    - !Yahoo had make adjustment for the player's point again. its 67 points previous and now become 63 points. :(

    why are they keep making adjustment to player's point? >.<


    Joseph

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  7. Which is the preferred striker for this weekend?
    I'm considering either Odemwingie or Berbatov.

    Odemwingie is at home to Bolton. Not too bad a match up and Odemwingie has been doing quite well.

    Berbatov (along with most other big teams) didn't do too well last week but is away to Sunderland. With Rooney out, he should be getting goals again?

    Thoughts?

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  8. Debating2:40 AM

    so... what combination do you think gets better point production:

    Foster + Brunt, or Kirkland + Berbatov

    I know normally 2 is better than 1... and Birm home to Everton (bottom of the table) has a worst case scenario of tie written all over it, so I'm leaning towards #1 - but I like the idea of keeping Berbs on a discount while Rooney is out 3 weeks (i.e. next week is home to West Brom).

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  9. Anonymous4:17 AM

    I still to think about a lot of aspects in this dilemma, including some performances yet to be watched in european competitions, but I'd still like to hear some early thoughts about this decision:

    Nani+Foster+Barton+Skrtel+Elmander/Jerome

    or

    Tevez+Silva+Reina+RStam+Holden

    Thanks in advance,

    SF

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  10. @Anonymous 4:17am

    Personally, I like your 2nd line-up better - minus Silva who is a big doubt (J.Cole or Dorrans instead).

    JH

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  11. Anonymous8:39 AM

    @Josh

    Silva started vs Chelsea and played 78 minutes, so I'm guessing he's no longer injured. I'm seriously considering him if he's rested tomorrow vs Juventus. But if I have any doubt I might go with someone different.

    SF

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  12. Anonymous3:55 PM

    Pav is taking PK for hotspurs...

    -Brian

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  13. Anonymous6:10 PM

    Hey, any word on Michael Mancienne starting this week? I've tried locating this info. on their website to no avail.

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  14. @Brian...only after VdV missed one.

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  15. its pretty obvious that liverpool is a lack luster squad that face higher expectations than they will ever match, but you are seriously underestimating the value of kuyt both on and off the ball, by saying they only have 3 good players (presumed torres gerrard reina)

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  16. oh and not only is odemwingie going to continue to blossom, his name is really fun to say. odemwingie! odemwingie!

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  17. richard_pitts_200010:35 AM

    My line up at present:

    Hart, Williamson, Bale, Salcido, Adam, Barton, Malouda, VdV, Chamwow, Drogs, Caroll

    I am holding a lot of these at heavy discount. How do I get Odemwinge in there? Foster instead of Hart? - Man City have conceded 2 in 6 games after all and Bale and Malouda surely cannot be dropped. Any ideas appreciated.

    ReplyDelete