The Week Ahead



I know I'm running terribly late with this post but the last two days (and really the last two months) have been a bit of a whirlwind of activity in my little corner of the world.  Since no one has seen fit to pay us enough to make this our day job, we occasionally have to bow to the pressures of schedule conflicts.

Speaking of schedule conflicts (in the media biz, we call that a segue way kids) we continue to suffer as fantasy managers for the oddities created by UEFA's desire to reduce the number of knockout stage matches on the same day, the subsequent changes to the FA Cup schedule, leading to a marked lack of "normal" weekends in the Prem where all 20 teams play.  We've seen a consistent run of match weeks like this one where most teams play once and a few play two to make up for cup cancellations.  However, before we get to the scheduling ups and downs and their impact on your line-up for this week, a few words on Landon Donovan, Everton, and the status of MLS labor negotiations...
  • As I was watching Everton's match this past week, I was struck by the fact that they're REALLY deep now that they're healthy - does ManYoo have a single midfielder that would break into the Arteta, Donovan, Osman, Rodwell, Pienaar, Gosling, Cahill, and (eventually) Fellaini group? Nani on a good day (but they're few and far between)...Valencia is maybe at par with the EVE wide players but certainly not clearly better...Giggs was certainly better than them all on his day but at his age he'd be a sub at Everton.  The defence - even minus Lescott - is now deep with Rodwell, Yobo, Heitinga, Hibbert, and Senderos all quality squad players behind the first team.  The striking depth is a little weak but with so many attacking midfielders, there really isn't much of a need for cover beyond Saha and Yakubu.
  • Donovan specifically has been excellent - he isn't a star and he isn't the cause of Everton's drive up the table (he's helped but a lot of players have returned to health) but he's a great piece to the ensemble cast that Everton have assembled, his teammates and the supporters seem to have taken to him, and while his presence for the rest of this season is probably irrelevant to the outcome of the Toffee's season - he'd be a great boost to a Champions League chase if they could land him for all of next season.
  • Finally, for those Toffee supporters in the audience - here's an update on MLS labor negotiations which, if they lead to a player strike, could lead to Lando sticking around at Everton.  Certainly doesn't look good for the new season to start as scheduled.
OK, back to the discussion of schedule and players.


Schedule
  • Villa and Wigan have two matches each with Villa's match-ups being by-and-large favorable but both on the road (@Stoke, @Wigan) while Wigan have a mixed bag with @BOL and AST.
  • Of the promising one-gamers...
  • Arsenal travel to Stoke with the caveat that half their squad is hurt
  • Chelsea host WHU with the caveat that they still have no goalkeeper
  • Liverpool host Pompey with the caveat that they stunk up the place against almost as inept Wigan last weekend and in Europa Cup action against Lille earlier today
  • Spurs host Rovers with the caveat that they're Spurs and can't be trusted to do what they need to do against bad teams (see Spurs 0 - Wolves 1; Spurs 0 - Hull 0; Wolves 1 - Spurs 0)
  • ManYoo host Fulham but let's not get carried away by their drubbing of Milan - they've still been average in the league in their last 5 WDLWW with last weekend's win over lowly Wolves hardly inducing confidence
  • Citeh travel to Sunderland with the caveat that they've dropped points away to Wigan, Bolton, and Hull and when Sunderland came to Manchester they allowed 3 goals even though they got the win
So with the message essentially being "there are no sure things"  we get to the players...

Forwards
  • Drogba - No caveats here - he and Rooney are the league's best this season and Drogs has the better match-up;
  • Rooney - See above - whichever you have at a better price is the right answer;
  • Torres - Coming off of a terrible match against Wolves but his price didn't come down as much as I'd like so I'm only so inclined to recommend him;
  • Bendtner - He's on fire and the match-ups continue to be good ones for Arsenal;
  • Agbonlahor - Sort of an obvious choice with two matches but the price is higher than I'd like to see at over 15;
  • Carew - FA Cup hattrick hero for 6.43?  Seems like a great way to get in on the 2-game action cheap if you're looking to spend elsewhere.
  • Yayga - Hugo is really expensive after the GWG last weekend against Liverpool and he's been a sporadic producer but you can't completely ignore the two-game thing - consider this the obligatory mention without really being a full-on endorsement.
Midfielders
  • AJ - Great value for the money;
  • Modric - the only affordable attacking player for Spurs who have a good match-up;
  • Diaby - somebody is going to pick up Cesc's slack and he's my bet over Nasri who will likely be the more popular pick based on his fantastic goal against Porto;
  • Wilshere - it would seem he's a starter, he's got talent, and the price isn't that bad;
  • Maxi - He's been returning his price and the match-up is pretty solid for him yet again (better than Gerrard can say over the last few weeks);
  • Park - ManYoo's midfield is really not good for fantasy purposes but if there is a price/value option this is it if you're looking to buy expensive players elsewhere;
  • FloMal - his price has come down a bit which makes him somewhat attractive;
  • Milner - double match makes him an attractive option even at his elevated price;
  • McCarthy - he has settled down since his exceptional fantasy debut this season but with two matches he's not a bad idea - N'Zog will likely have more points across both matches but I'm not convinced that he'll be better value for the money;
Defenders
  • I have to admit that I haven't changed out my core group of defenders in about a month with Verm, Bale, and Hutton having done great work for me for a combined price of about 12 so I'm not likely to start making changes now, that said...
  • Fox - Burnley doesn't have many attractive fantasy options but Fox has been very good at a reasonable price of 7.28;
  • Steinsson - Bolton's match-up isn't bad and the price is right on one of last year's pleasant surprises;
  • Kyrgiakos - Hard to get too excited about LIV but another defender at an affordable price;
  • Campbell - He's probably in a better position to get points than Kyrgiakos but he isn't certain to recover from his mid-week Champions League exertions so I rate him a shade lower;
  • Rio - another central defender who is affordable and could get you some cheap points;
Keepers
  • BBBF - Friedel has two matches and though the price is high he'll be worth it;
  • Jensen - Probably the best bet among the cheaper options at keeper
Good luck and I'll be back in the morning (Eastern Time) with Injuries and Suspensions.

19 comments:

  1. Anonymous9:17 PM

    "Arsenal travel to Stoke with the caveat that half their squad is hurt "....

    Ooops, they go to Hull not Stoke.
    Also, segue does not need to be followed by "way" because "segue = seg+way"

    Sorry, I don't mean to be a stickler.

    Great post

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  2. Im running away from Gabby with the virus running around Villa and his recovery not looking good. Think how you feel the day after "beating" a stomach bug, would you be your best on the pitch? Much better value with the other Villa forwards IMO.

    I also like krancjar to do some damage to Blackburn who give up goals and Im not sure they have a whole lot to play for anymore this season.

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  3. Anonymous1:52 AM

    Bite your tongue. Gabby will play.

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  4. Anonymous2:05 AM

    Gabby will play but not 100% sharp :)

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  5. Anonymous3:10 AM

    Is there a problem with Tevez? He's rarely let me down, unlike Torres last week at -1.50...

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  6. Anonymous4:25 AM

    Hi ,

    I just thought i will alert you to one additional reason to stock up on the Villan players this week.

    The Week after this is also going to be a double week for Villa.

    And both are going to be at home vs Wolves and vs Sunderland.

    Both teams are not exactly known for their scoring away from home. (Though not as bad as Burnley)

    Other Double Games in the next week are

    Everton - Bolton at home and @ Man City.

    Man City - @ Fulham and home to Everton

    Portsmouth - Home to Hull and Chelsea.

    Sunderland - Home to Birmingham and @ Villa

    Birmingham - @ Sunderland and @ Blackburn

    Blackburn - Home to Chelsea and Birmingham

    West ham - @ Arsenal, Home to Wolves

    Wolves - @ Villa, @ West Ham

    Chelsea - @ Blackburn , @ Portsmouth

    Looking at those match ups, Villa have the best chance for racking up points from those teams.

    If you miss the Villa players this week, they are unlikely to be affordable next week.

    Cheers

    SL

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  7. very surprsied at that united midfield comment - if u want an answer ask those in th eknow - uniteds midfield are proven winners, hard workers, talented experienced. Fletcher would be Moyes' dream player, scholes and giggs speak for themselves, nani on his day is far better and is producin on the big stage shown by his magnificent assist the other night. carrick is an england international with 3 prem titles. valencia is prob the most consistent player in the lge and is good defending too. Arteta is the only one who might get in2 fergies midfield ahead of carrick/a rested scholes. the rest would not.

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  8. Which option is better?

    Option 1:
    Jensen
    Figueroa, Bale, Warnock, Cuellar
    Downing, Milner, N'Zogbia
    Heskey, Rodallega, Carew
    @99.77

    Option 2:
    Kirkland
    Figueroa, Caldwell, Bramble, Dunne
    Young, Petrov, Milner
    Carew, Rodallega, Scotland
    @99.83

    Many thanks in advance for your comments!!!

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  9. I got arshavin before his price went up? How's he at 12 or am - hoping too much?

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  10. Hi,

    I know this isn't the right place but I couldn't find an email address for you. I came across your site thought that you might be interested in a new, stats based game called Picklive Football. The basic principal is that you choose three players and you score points for completed passes, assists and goals etc. Everything is updated in real time and you play against other users to create that competition element. We play games every Tuesday and Wednesday night at http://football.picklive.com.

    Also, as the game relies on live data, we get a lot of match stats that I thought you might be able to use after matches we’ve covered and during the summer, as we're covering every game at the World Cup. During the match every single action is recorded, such as interceptions, failed passes, and tackles and I thought these might help you analyse good fantasy players and bargains to pick up.

    Here is an example of the match stats from Tuesday's Arsenal v Porto game: http://bit.ly/aT3IHr (these show the Picklive points scored by the player but the number of each action can be worked out using the scoring summary: http://bit.ly/9IEgPg).

    If the game sounds interesting or you'd like the stats just send an email to olly@picklive.com and I'll answer any questions you might have and would be more than happy to help.

    Regards,

    Olly

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  11. @me: in the Fantasy world, they are not that good though.

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  12. Anonymous11:06 AM

    turnbull set to start for chelsea :(

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  13. Anonymous6:39 PM

    who is aj?

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  14. Anonymous6:47 PM

    i think aj is adam johnson plays for man city



    tinywirral

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  15. @madguy. yeah that is a fair point. but the quote was : "does ManYoo have a single midfielder that would break into the Arteta, Donovan, Osman, Rodwell, Pienaar, Gosling, Cahill, and (eventually) Fellaini group?" made as a footballing statement rather than a fantasy one. fantasy play and real play do not always equate - just have to look at players like Roy Keane, Pat Vieira (arsenal version) and Makalele to prove that point.

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  16. Kranjcar or modric..please help!!

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  17. @me & madguy. I hope you're not surprised by a negative comment about Man Utd from Neal.

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  18. @ ME....you're seeing things from a Man Utd fan's point of view....for the rest of us...this year's Man Utd midfield is nothing to shout about. They're good but not great. What they do have as a team is a winning mentality that seems to carry them past games they should be drawing or losing.

    Scholes is good but needs to be rested now and again. Giggs is great but same as Scholes needs rest.
    Fletcher....very solid and makes no mistakes but not exactly world class is he.
    Park...most hardworking midfielder they have and never gives up but apart from that average.
    Nani...has 1 good game every 5 games. Luxury player not season player.
    Valencia...was Wigan's best player. Will never be Man Utd's

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  19. @ joe - i am not lookin at it from a uniteds fan perspective - i am lookin at it from the perspective of a manager - moyes would choose fletcher, giggs, park, valencia and maybe carrick nani and scholes ahead of all bar arteta. yes everton have good players like cahill but they dont have the proven winning mentality of the united midfield - thus my shock at neals statement. if u swopped the united midfield for the everton one the lge table would look very different. yes rooney has been on fire this year - but look at the assists for his goals - lots of excellent passing from the midfield - service yakubu and saha would kill for.

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