The Week Ahead - The Breaks of the Game Edition

Now in general I am a huge subscriber to the notion that "you are what your record says you are" (apologies to Bill Parcels).  Ifs, ands, buts, and the like are generally for losers.  That said, I came across this on The Twitter this morning and thought it would be interesting to share in light of the criticism that Arsene Wenger has received this season for sticking to his (ahem) guns when it comes to his policy of youth.  Likewise, it sheds some interesting light on the "amazing" job that Sir Alex is doing.

Modified table in a world where all shots off the bar/post went in (Source: Opta)

What do we see? That Arsenal would be running away with the title if they could shoot just THIS MUCH straighter.  I'm not smart enough to know if the tendency to hit the bar and the post often enough to cause this big a difference in the table is indicative of anything specific at Arsenal.  It could be the effect of youth.  It could be part of the Arsenal Way which seems to include trying to be too perfect or elegant when something else would get the job done.  It could be the pressure to win something.  It could be a compounding of the lack of confidence due to the team's recent habit of getting very close to winning things but "never winning the big one."  It could also just be bad luck.

In any event, with summer coming and the inevitable call for Arsenal to spend a ton to refurbish the squad this hypothetical graphic gives some wings to the notion that they really aren't that far off in what they're doing.

By contrast everything has gone perfectly for Man United who would be project to have EXACTLY the same number of points had all of their shots hitting the target gone in.  Call them brutally efficient if you'd like.  Also realize that it means that with the squad as currently constituted they have almost zero room for error.  If only a few of those shots that Chicharito nestled just inside the bar start hitting the bar and bouncing out instead they could be in for an ugly season unless they bolster their squad.

Before the comments start to roll in, this is in NO WAY an attempt to claim that Arsenal are the rightful winners of the title or that they are a better team than Manchester United this season.  You are what your record says you are.  United or Chelsea will win the title and if they do so they will do so deservedly.  My only point is that things aren't quite as dire as you are likely to read at the Emirates as they head into the summer.

And with that we take you to your regularly scheduled fantasy analysis: