First Impressions and Second Thoughts - Week 7

Sadly, I didn't get to watch as much match action as I usually do this past weekend.  I saw all of ManYoo @ Sunderland, I saw much of Citeh vs. NUFC, and I moved quickly through Arsenal @ Chelsea to get a sense of the biggest match of the weekend.  Of course, despite having to be at the office for most of the weekend, I did manage to follow along via BBC text casts so it isn't like I'm entirely ignorant of what went on elsewhere.  I just didn't see it all (or at least most of it) for myself on TV.  Here are some random thoughts from the weekend that was in the Premier League - some specifically targeted at fantasy managers and some more general observations about the league and its players:



Teams

• The Title Race - What can you say other than that it looks pretty well over at this point.  This is certainly the point where the realists in the crowd say "there's still a long way to go and anything could happen" and that's true.  That said, unless something major happens like Drogba being sidelined for an extended period just after the close of the January transfer window, it's hard to see anyone capable of catching Chelsea.  They ruthlessly dispense with teams who are clearly inferior and are one Tevez shot that found its way through ACole's legs from having shut out Arsenal and Citeh in consecutive weeks.  Not really much there to lead you to believe that things won't continue to script for them until May.
• The Race for Second - The real question we're left with in the wake of Arsenal getting one point from their last three matches and ManYoo only getting two points from two extremely win-able road matches in the last two weeks is "who is the odds on favorite for 2nd place?"  Before the WBA capitulation at the Emirates you'd have said Arsenal by a fairly wide margin but the last three weeks has dropped the stocks of Arsenal and ManYoo while seeing Citeh's rebound and that of Spurs at least stabilize.  Here's my quick handicapping of the race for second given what we know right now (in predicted order of finish):
• Citeh - There is lots of upside from these factors: Hart is awesome, there is a ton of attacking talent, they're still figuring out how to play together so they should get better, most of their first choice defenders are close to coming back from injury, if they're missing something they can certainly buy in January.  Not much downside other than the fact that they haven't really scored much despite their attacking talent and have dropped points to teams that aren't as talented.
• Arsenal - There is some upside from these factors: There is almost an entire Starting XI including the best three or four players on the team who will be coming back, there are goals to be found from a lot of places, there should be at least some money to make solid acquisitions in January (a keeper?).  That said, there is downside in the fact that the injury issues aren't new and there's nothing to say that they won't persist AND that Wenger has stubbornly avoided spending on a top keeper despite having the money to spend.
• ManYoo - There is upside in that Rooney can't keep sucking this badly for an entire season and the defense should be stabilized by the return of Rio/benching of Evans.  That said, there doesn't seem to be much money to improve a decidedly average/old core of central midfielders.  Honestly, the only reason I put them above Spurs on this list is I trust SAF and the muscle memory of Scholes/Giggs/Neville/Rio/Rooney to win when they have to to keep themselves in the Champions League.
• Spurs - With the emergence of van der Vaart and the continued excellent play of Bale, a large cast of above-average-but-not-great supporting cast members and the return-to-health of Gomes in the net there is reason to think that Spurs will improve on a bad start to the season.  The downside is that we don't know how VDV and Bale will react to the biggest of stages that will determine if they can beat out ManYoo (or Arsenal) to that final Champions League spot.  For me, it comes down to this - who do I think will crumble first if things are close at the end of the season for 4th, SAF? Arsene? or 'arry?  Seems like an obvious one to me.
• The Wolves Story - Sadly, this once-optimistic tale of grit combining with just enough style to make things interesting has devolved rapidly into one that focused entirely on Wolves' propensity for brutality.  As the Yellows continue to pile up and a small stack of Reds that did or easily could have led to serious injuries emerges I'm having more and more trouble staying positive about Wolves.  Here's hoping that the return of Stephen Hunt and the enforced absence of Henry will combine to create a slight change of attitude and a return to some positive results.  If the current pace persists, they will be relegated with no remorse from anyone (except perhaps our two stalwart Wolves followers on our Saturday Live Chats) for their leaving.
• The Newly Promoted - Blackpool was my sleeper pick of the weekend last weekend (really, anyone playing Liverpool right now qualifies though) and they are continuing to look very much at home in the top flight.  Really amazing since their players were anonymous and they were widely fancied to be Derby dreadful.  You can bet every dollar you have that Charlie Adam will be playing in the top flight for a long time regardless of Blackpool's eventual fate this season.  WBA remains in an even more elevated spot after a slightly disappointing home draw with Bolton.  The amazing thing is that the draw was something of a disappointment.  Basically, the headline here is that the amazing journey continues for both of these sides.
• Who Will Go Down? I know the obvious story for the reactionary media to write on Monday was that Liverpool COULD REALLY go down but here's the thing, that's a bunch of cr@p.  Same with Everton - there is just too much talent on both teams for their current slumps to last all season.  If you had to ask me to guess right now who the fallen will be at the end of the year, I'd go with three Ws - Wigan, Wolves, and West Ham.  That said, there hasn't been any real separation between the middle of the table and the bottom - a single win from even 20th place West Ham and they'd appear comfortably clear of relegation by next week.  Still, taking talent, trajectory, and managerial confidence into consideration those would be my best guesses as of right now - not a ton of upside or obvious sources of money to change their circumstances over the second half of the season.

Players

• Drogba - As I mentioned for the last two weeks, you drop him at your own peril - especially when Arsenal is the opponent.  The people who were looking good last week for having dropped him against Citeh are the same ones who I moved past in the standings this weekend when Drogs did his thing.
• Adam - He just keeps churning out the performances.  He certainly isn't going to be a candidate for Player of the Year but he certainly should be a candidate for best newcomer or player who far exceeded even our wildest expectations.
• VDV - Has quickly become the driving force behind Spurs - where would they be if his last second transfer had missed by a few seconds instead of having made it in under the wire.  Taking that point further, if he is clearly the difference between Spurs making it back into the Champions League in 4th place instead of another club, would that club be justified in calling for an investigation into the propriety of the timing of his transfer? No one has said anything yet but just remember that you heard it here first when you see the headlines in April or May.  For those not aligned with a club likely to be involved in a potential controversy, what do you think? Potential scandal similar to Tevez and the relegation zone a few seasons back? Or nothing worth thinking about?
• Odemwingie - He didn't score but he did get an assist and if that was a down weekend, I'll take it
• Dempsey - One of the reasons I'm sort of down on one of my favorite real life players as a fantasy player is that he doesn't tend to get a ton of phantom points.  If you'll recall the KJones/Chamakh/Carroll comparison last week, Dempsey fits into similar space as an attacking midfielder.  He doesn't tend to shoot a ton or cross the ball and therefore even when he comes through with a goal like he did this past weekend, the output isn't THAT great.  On the weekends where he doesn't score, you end up spending between 10 and 12 for 5 or 6 points of production.  This is why we like guys who take kicks.  Just remember this as you continue to see Dempsey as a midfielder lining up at striker. 
• Carroll - Seems he must have hit something of a wall because he's gone from hat trick hero to not guaranteed to start in pretty short order.  
• De Jong - There are two ways to look at him right now.  The obvious way - he's a dirty player who consistently aims to injure or even maim (as he did to Ben Arfa this past weekend) and he should be banned.  The more subtle way is that maybe there's a reason that Drogba and Malouda looked so out of sorts against Citeh two weekends ago.  Maybe they didn't think it was worth it to go full out and risk crossing the path of Mr. de Jong.  I'm certainly not advocating for the type of play that leaves players with broken limbs or cleat marks on their chests but if I were building a team and wanted to give myself the best chance to win, I'd certainly want someone who was a huge deterrent in front of my defenders.  Was Roy Keane really any less "committed" in his day? Was he any less reckless? Have we allowed his mis-deeds to fade into history in favor of remembering him as the captain of a frequently decorated team that was generally the best in England during his prime? I hate to ask the question but is there an element of racism or prejudice against foreigners at work here where we let Keane off as passionate/committed/hard while condemning De Jong as cheap/dirty.  I'm not saying that they are exactly equivalent or that I support De Jong but it seems reasonable to ask whether a different standard is being applied to the two players.