And then there were three...

...competitions that Chelsea are still alive in. I know it has nothing in particular to do with EPL fantasy, but I feel I'd be remiss if I didn't congratulate Charlton on their penalty shootout win over an increasingly annoying Chelsea side. Of course, the fact that I was on the Addicks bandwagon early in the summer didn't in any way increase my glee at this result...

Anyway, back to this week's action and the issues that fantasy managers care about...

Obviously, the news of the week centers around the injury problems that various squads are having at the striker position. Henry is rated at no more than 30% likely to play which will represent the ultimate risk for fantasy managers - do you sink a quarter of your budget into a striker who probably won't play and only managed 2.00 points last weekend but could at any time go off for 30+ points in a match? The other thing that sticks out about this week's matches are that there are no major mismatches. Teams in the top half are playing each other - Arsenal/Spurs, Charlton/Bolton, and Chelsea/Blackburn. The bottom half teams are playing each other - Brum/Everton, Sunderland/Pompey, WBA/Newcastle. And in most cases where a top half team is playing a bottom half team, the weaker squad is at home - Liverpool/West Ham and Boro/ManYoo. Among top half of the table squads only Wigan, who host Fulham, and Man City, who host Villa, are playing at home against bottom half teams. And, in neither case, is the match-up so bad that it should have fantasy managers salivating. Be that as it may, we still need to construct our line-ups, so here goes...

Chelsea - What's going on here? Have they already become complacent? After pitching seven consecutive shutouts to start the season, Chelsea have let in a goal in five of their last seven matches. Not exactly a sign that the empire is crumbling since they've won four those matches, drawn two and lost only one but compared to the dominance of last season and the beginning of this one, it's definitely a change. What it means for fantasy managers is that Chelsea's defenders aren't as valuable as they once were - especially their central defenders. Don't get me wrong, if you still have Del Horno at a cheap price, keep him. Where you may want to pause is when you're considering investing top dollar in John Terry. Carvalho is relatively cheap for a Chelsea defender (7.45) and might be worth considering. On the offensive end, Frank Lampard has rewarded everyone who put their faith (and a quarter of the budget) into owning him. Otherwise, though, Chelsea's players have been mostly overpriced this season. Essien is still a good deal if you need a cheap midfielder but he is unlikely to get you a huge haul of points - somewhere between 5 and 7 should be a reasonable expectation. For those of you still clinging to fond memories of Shawn Wright-Phillips at Man Citeh, forget them, he's been terrible both for fantasy managers and in real life. He'll probably adapt because he's a good player, but I'd stay away unless/until his price goes way down.

On the other side of the ball, MGP continues to be a stud and there was a Craig Bellamy sighting last weekend but I wouldn't spend a lot of time trying to guess who is going to get the one goal that Chelsea might allow. We should also keep in mind that they might be a little pissy after having lost in midweek - even if it was only the Carling Cup.

The Former "Big Two" - Is anyone going to stay healthy for Arsenal this year? I'd be a lot more inclined to give Wenger a hard time for selling Vieira if I could evaluate the first team when they're actually healthy and playing together. Henry seems unlikely to play. Reyes is coming off a rib injury. Hleb is out. Cole is out. Pires must still be suffering from the massive bruise to his ego. Sol and Freddie are back but can't be expected to be in top form after their injuries. With the Gunners unsettled, Tottenham must be licking it's chops after getting a point last weekend at Old Trafford. Outside of Defoe, I can't say I'm too interested in any Spurs player for my line-up - this has the look of a 2-1 match in which none of the defenders or keepers rack up enough points to justify buying them if you don't already have them on the cheap. Spurs' midfielders aren't exceptional fantasy values and Mido against a fairly good Gunners defense isn't a great bet either although he is cheap and cheap is good.

The other half of the former "big two" travels to Boro this weekend in hopes of bouncing back from their lackluster draw with Spurs. Ruud and Rooney are the obvious choices here if you can afford them. The middle of Boro's defense will suffer from the loss of both Gareth Southgate and Ugo Ehiogu and those two are just the guys to exploit that weakness. The downside is that, like Chelsea, ManYoo have been giving up goals in their Premiership matches having conceded at least one in five of their last six matches with the one cleansheet being to the kings of the nil-nil draw Liverpool. That leaves the value of van der Saar and whichever United defenders are healthy in question. Boro is in the unfortunate circumstance of not matching up too well with United. The way to attack United right now is definitely down the flanks and with Downing out and Mendieta probably not at full strength, the flanks are not Boro's strong point right now. That said, you can never rule out a good individual performance from Yakubu that nets a goal or even two for the home side. Feels like a 1-1 draw to me with Ruud finally getting back in the scoring column.

Against the Relegation Zone - This week features the battle of futility as Birmingham host Everton who, despite their moral victory vs. Chelsea last week, managed to crash out of the Carling Cup in midweek and look pretty anemic in doing so. Jarosik seems to be healthy again and is still a very cheap option in midfield. Pennant is coming off a bad match against Blackburn where Pedersen showed him who the better fantasy winger really is. Other than those guys, I'm not sure I'd spend a lot of time thinking about this one - we can thank our lucky stars that this one isn't being served up on FSC - if it had been, you have to hope that some at the FCC would have gotten involved. If you must consider anyone from this match - any of Birmingham's defenders seem likely to get a clean sheet (be it 1-0 or 0-0) - go for the one you think is least likely to pick up a yellow card while doing so.

If Birmingham and Everton weren't squaring off this weekend, then the battle of lost causes would certainly be the one between Sunderland and Pompey who are a mere point above the drop zone. The worst part of it all is that the match features even less attractive fantasy options than the Brum/Everton match. Robert is always a viable option but as we all saw last week, he is just as likely to disappear as he is to dazzle. As for Sunderland's players, let's just move on.

Random Notes - Collins John has found his confidence and to quote Kevin Costner in Bull Durham - you have to respect the streak...aiding and abetting that streak is the always steady Claus Jensen who's a steal at 8.82...Danny Murphy, Danny Murphy, Danny Murphy - if you haven't learned by now, you probably never will...This is the Henri Camara that we were all expecting to see for Southampton last year - too bad he's so expensive now - still not bad at home vs. pourous Fulham if you have the money...Not sure why, but I'm feeling good about Darius Vassell against Villa who are generally terrible on the road, Andy Cole will probably do well too, but he's pretty expensive...I hope everyone got in on Emre before he went up, my guess is that he's the "must have" person in everyone's line-up - even if he doesn't have a great weekend, you won't lose anything because everyone else will have him...If you're looking for a cheap forward, be aware that Yousi Benayoun is doubtful for West Ham...Michael Owen is back in the mix at Newcastle and should be considered given his price and their mediocre competition but Shola Ameobi is out thus ruining the weekend of everyone who had him at 4.00

Good luck with your last minute shopping

2 comments:

  1. OMG. This week I got -6 points!

    Jensen was my top scorer with 2.5 pts
    Then Rooney with 1.5
    Then Pedersen -0.5!
    Then Murphy -1.5!
    Then Van Der Sar with -6pts!

    Also Bent didn't play and he got injured after I could change it. Robert decides not to play! And Someone told me Josemi would definitely start but he didn 't even make the bench!

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  2. Anonymous11:33 AM

    Good Lord, Bolton really does kill the opposition's fantasy points. Thank the fates I had Lampard and Reina this week.

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