... alternate title, "First time as tragedy, second time as farce."
In comments we were asked, "Is there any arguement for keeping VDV @ 6?". I was reminded that there is an argument, and it was made, and debated ad naseum, last season when Didier Drogba was set to miss a month of league games while playing for the Ivory Coast.
The best encapsulation of the argument was probably over at Y!AM's site.
http://yahoofantasyfootballuk.blogspot.com/2009/12/drogba-dilemma.html
There have been some excellent posts in the comments and chat in the chat room regarding the game's top scorer; specifically by those who still own him at 10.66. The dilemma people are facing is whether to hang on to Didier Drogba during the African Cup of Nations, where he is likely to miss 4 Chelsea games.Basically the idea was that Drogba at a discount would return more points over the course of the season than any replacement, even with four more game weeks and that analysis proved pretty much correct. Now Van Der Vaart has been an awesome fantasy player. And there is no definitive word yet on the extent of his injury. But if, as rumored, he is out for a month, there is a lot of competition in midfield and a lot of points to be had for not too much money. But that's probably the topic of another, longer, post.
Now, I had already assumed that I would sell him as I didn't think I could afford to take 4 weeks of zeros, but J Dunn and The Tigers have looked at the stats in detail and come up with some very interesting analysis.
Hmmm... another excuse to post the photo of a hot WAG.
ReplyDeleteAh, that post brings back memories :)
ReplyDeleteStarting11.com did some analysis of the VDV injury today...if we go with the initial rumours that it is a hamstring tear then he would miss 4-6 weeks, so that would mean missing
Birmingham v Tottenham
Tottenham v Chelsea
Blackpool v Tottenham
Aston Villa v Tottenham
Tottenham v Newcastle
Tottenham v Fulham
Everton v Tottenham
7 games! For me that's too long to take zeros, even when I hold him at £6m, but I guess until we get official confirmation from Tottenham in the next day or so we can't be sure.
i have him at 5.53. if i replace him at cost, i probably get 20-25 points in four weeks -- and maybe five points a week the subsequent ~15 weeks (total of 5 * 19 = 95)
ReplyDeleteif i keep him, i get zero for four weeks -- and then likely back to 10 points a week for the subsequent 15 (total of 10 * 15 = 150).
even if he misses the full six, i'd still be about 30 points to the better for keeping him.
until/unless the transfer window opens on some cheap, unproven new talent, this isn't even close. VDV can miss up to 10 of the remaining 20 weeks and still likely break even on what i can replace him with now. it's even more clear an example than drogs at 10.66, because there's actual scoring talent available at that replacement cost; not only no such thing at 5.53, but precious little *consistent starting* talent.
the solitary case i can make for explosive potential at so low a price is balotelli. of course some things have to right there as well. and he's already holding down a striker spot for me, so no use for me specifically.